Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-LI-RECENCY-001 , Latest hours show a downshift in net sentiment score (increasing whipsaw risk)
- generated_at: 2026-03-29T15:01:51Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Lithium futures sentiment is net-supportive but not decisive: EV/battery-demand narratives are broadly positive, while supply-expansion/integration narratives cap directional clarity. | 58 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 56 |
| lithium | B-LI-002 | Near-term price action risk is skewed to choppy/range behaviour with elevated headline sensitivity (policy/regulatory + operational risk signals), rather than a clean trend day. | 60 | flat | stable | 6h | false | 56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "snap_20260329T150151Z_lithium_6B", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T15:01:51Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 52, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Lithium futures sentiment is net-supportive but not decisive: EV/battery-demand narratives are broadly positive, while supply-expansion/integration narratives cap directional clarity.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "EV adoption / battery buildout themes remain broadly positive across multiple admitted trends", "Battery manufacturers pursuing lithium extraction / upstream integration increases supply visibility (offsetting)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Supply-side expansion and extraction scaling themes reduce upside asymmetry (acts as counterweight rather than a direct bearish catalyst)" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52, "directional_mass_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 35 }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term price action risk is skewed to choppy/range behaviour with elevated headline sensitivity (policy/regulatory + operational risk signals), rather than a clean trend day.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "flat", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Ongoing policy/regulatory themes in the lithium supply chain (e.g., producer-country regulation narratives)", "Late-session operational-risk anomaly signal (regulatory/customs-related) increases volatility risk" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50, "directional_mass_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 25 } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 62, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-001", "B-LI-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 18, "B": 3, "C": 5, "D": 28, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 2, "fresh_6_24h": 2, "stale_24_72h": 6, "stale_72h_plus": 18 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-RECENCY-001", "market": "lithium", "classification": "recency_flip", "severity": "medium", "summary": "Latest hours show a downshift in net sentiment score (still positive-leaning), increasing whipsaw risk." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-COUNTERWEIGHT-001", "market": "lithium", "classification": "narrative_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "summary": "Demand-supportive EV/battery narratives are counterweighted by supply-expansion/upstream-integration narratives, reducing directional clarity." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-OPS-001", "market": "lithium", "classification": "operational_surge_risk", "severity": "medium", "summary": "A late operational-risk anomaly (regulatory/customs-linked) raises short-horizon volatility risk despite no explicit bearish corpus reversal." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence in the next 6h clusters clearly on either (a) supply disruption/tightening or (b) rapid supply ramp/weak demand, expect directional_state to move out of neutral_mixed." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction increases (mixed headlines) while net sentiment continues to fall, maintain a reversal/volatility watch posture." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:01:51Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T16:01:51Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, 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"neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:01:51Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:01:51Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:01:51Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:01:51Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:01:51Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:01:51Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, 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"contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T23:01:51Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T00:01:51Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T00:01:51Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T01:01:51Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:01:51Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T02:01:51Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:01:51Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T03:01:51Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:01:51Z", "bucket_end_utc": 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"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:01:51Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:01:51Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:01:51Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:01:51Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:01:51Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:01:51Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:01:51Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:01:51Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:01:51Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:01:51Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.38, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 18, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -4, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 9, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly to lithium; analysis constrained to single_market scope.", "No explicit opposing/contradiction objects were provided; counterevidence score is driven by supply-expansion vs demand-supportive driver balance (counterweight, not a hard reversal).", "Directional call suppressed to neutral_mixed due to indirect driver mix (demand-supportive + supply-expansion) despite adequate evidence volume." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }