Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium (EV demand + battery supply chain)
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-LI-001 (operational_surge_risk_unmaterialised, medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-29T23:59:59Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Near-term lithium futures sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption and battery capacity expansion narratives remain broadly supportive. | 62 | up | stable | 6h | false | 48 |
| lithium | B-LI-002 | 24h lithium sentiment remains constructive, supported by ongoing supply-chain investment and extraction/refining capacity themes (including major producers/regions). | 66 | up | stable | 24h | false | 48 |
| lithium | B-LI-003 | Volatility risk is elevated in the near term due to a very recent, low-materialisation operational/regulatory seed signal tied to China customs/flows (impactful if corroborated). | 55 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_lithium_2026-03-29T23:59:59Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T23:59:59Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium (EV demand + battery supply chain)", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption and battery capacity expansion narratives remain broadly supportive.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "EV adoption / demand (BYD, OEM adoption narratives)", "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion signals", "Battery chemistry / technology progress sustaining demand expectations" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "24h lithium sentiment remains constructive, supported by ongoing supply-chain investment and extraction/refining capacity themes (including major producers/regions).", "probability_pct": 66, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Extraction / supply-chain buildout themes (major producers/projects)", "Chile/LatAm policy & industry positioning as persistent background driver", "Institutional coverage breadth (multi-source reinforcement)" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-003", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Volatility risk is elevated in the near term due to a very recent, low-materialisation operational/regulatory seed signal tied to China customs/flows (impactful if corroborated).", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Late-hour operational risk anomaly (unmaterialised evidence bundle)", "Potential policy/flows sensitivity in EV/battery supply chain" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "stable", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 80, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-001", "B-LI-002", "B-LI-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 161, "B": 13, "C": 21, "D": 214, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_signals_est": 5, "fresh_6_24h_signals_est": 5, "fresh_24_72h_signals_est": 2, "stale_gt_72h_signals_est": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "RF-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "type": "operational_surge_risk_unmaterialised", "severity": "medium", "details": "Very recent risk anomaly present with low evidence materialisation/confidence; treat as volatility/reversal watch rather than directional counterevidence." }, { "flag_id": "RF-LI-002", "market": "lithium", "type": "low_authority_tail_present", "severity": "low", "details": "Directional mass is broad, but a meaningful tail of lower-tier sources exists across themes; monitor for echo amplification in any single storyline." }, { "flag_id": "RF-LI-003", "market": "lithium", "type": "timeseries_bucket_sparsity", "severity": "low", "details": "Bucket-level evidence timing is partially inferred from trend-level recency proxies; conviction/fragility in timeseries is conservatively scaled." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "label": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias only while directional_mass_score_0_100 >= 70 and no fresh (<=2h) opposing evidence cluster emerges." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility posture if the late-hour operational/regulatory seed signal is corroborated by >=2 independent records/sources within 6h." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Treat as reversal warning if contradiction_ratio rises above 0.25 in the most recent 2h window with concurrent directional_score_signed drop >= 20." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, 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32, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, 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"dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, 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"dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 12, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.", "No explicit contradictory trend objects were provided; reversal risk elevated to medium primarily due to a very recent unmaterialised risk anomaly (treated as volatility risk, not counterevidence).", "state_change computed with unknown prior state; default prior assumed neutral for transition classification." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }