• subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-DATA-SPARSITY (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-29T23:59:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Gold futures bias suppressed to mixed/rangebound due to insufficient fresh gold-specific evidence; most mapped signals >72h and single-source. 58 mixed fading 24h false 72
gold B-GOLD-002 If geopolitical/energy-tension headlines re-accelerate with corroborated, multi-source evidence, gold may regain mild upside over next 6–24h; current support not confirmed. 42 up stable 6h false 72 
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_gold_20260329_235900Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T23:59:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 12,
 "commodity_registry": [
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 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
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 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures directional bias is suppressed to mixed/rangebound due to insufficient fresh, gold-specific evidence in the current corpus window (most mapped signals are >72h old and single-source).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity_gold_specific",
 "stale_signal_overhang"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-GOLD-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "If geopolitical-risk/energy-tension headlines re-accelerate with corroborated, multi-source evidence, gold can regain a mild upside (safe-haven) bias over the next 6\u201324h; current support is not confirmed in the fresh window.",
 "probability_pct": 42,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk_channel (not gold-mapped in this cycle)",
 "safe_haven_reflex (conditional)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
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 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 15,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
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 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 22,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
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 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
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 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 0,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "stale_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-DATA-SPARSITY",
 "market": "gold",
 "level": "high",
 "description": "Gold-mapped evidence count is below threshold and dominated by singleton, older items; direction suppressed to neutral/mixed."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-STALE-CONTEXT-OVERHANG",
 "market": "gold",
 "level": "high",
 "description": "Most potentially relevant signals are >72h old; stale suppression applied and momentum marked weakening."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NARRATIVE-WHIPSAW",
 "market": "gold",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Mix of positive/negative singleton signals (e.g., GLD dynamics vs trade-disruption narrative) increases fragility despite neutral headline state."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral/mixed posture while gold-specific fresh evidence count < 3 and freshness_confidence = low."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate watch if 2+ independent, <=6h sources tie real-rates/USD shock or confirmed geopolitical escalation directly to gold flows."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) opposing cluster emerges that flips net directional score beyond +/-20 with corroboration, reassess for state transition."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
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 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 6,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 0,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly to 'gold'.",
 "Most trends in the provided corpus are geopolitical and not confidently mappable to canonical 'gold' via alias rules; they were not admitted for gold state synthesis (unmapped_signal_count elevated).",
 "Gold-mapped items present are primarily VIP singletons (e.g., gold trade disruption/traceability; GLD dynamics) and are older than 72h (published around 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09), triggering strong recency downweight and stale suppression.",
 "User threshold min_evidence_threshold=3 not met for fresh, gold-specific evidence; direction suppressed to neutral_mixed."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}