Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-29T16:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-gold-001 |
Geopolitical-risk narratives remain a background tailwind for gold, but lack fresh corroboration in the last 72h. |
54 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
74 |
| gold |
B-gold-002 |
Macro/real-rate narrative signals are present but stale; near-term gold is more likely rangebound than trending. |
60 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
74 |
| gold |
B-gold-003 |
Gold trade/supply-chain disruption narrative is single-source and not yet corroborated; near-term impact likely limited without confirmation. |
65 |
flat |
fading |
6h |
false |
74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260329T160000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Geopolitical-risk narratives remain a background tailwind for gold, but lack fresh corroboration in the last 72h.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk (stale background signal set)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No fresh confirming evidence inside 24h window (signal sparsity)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 36,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-002",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Macro/real-rate narrative signals are present but stale; near-term gold is more likely rangebound than trending.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"policy/monetary-policy commentary (stale)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If a fresh macro catalyst prints, this rangebound expectation can break quickly"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-003",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold trade/supply-chain disruption narrative is single-source and not yet corroborated; near-term impact likely limited without confirmation.",
"probability_pct": 65,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"physical_gold_demand",
"trade/traceability headlines (singleton)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Second-source confirmation could upgrade this to a directional catalyst"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 5,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 32,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-gold-001",
"B-gold-002",
"B-gold-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 2,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 1
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 3
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Most admitted drivers are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (>72h old versus snapshot 2026-03-29)."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_recent_window",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"details": "No high-quality, market-direct gold evidence observed inside the last 24h buckets; conviction capped."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "With low freshness, any late-breaking macro/geopolitical headline could flip the directional read quickly."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Remain until >=3 fresh (<=24h) corroborating records align directionally with low contradiction."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Activate if a fresh high-authority macro print or escalation headline appears (<=6h) and is echoed by >=2 independent sources."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh evidence introduces a clear opposing directional impulse versus prior background tailwind."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 3,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly: gold.",
"Gold-directional evidence inside last 24h is sparse; output suppressed to neutral_mixed per request safeguards.",
"Admitted drivers were primarily VIP/risk items dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09; strong stale downweight applied.",
"No late-breaking invalidation sentinel fired (no <=2h opposing hard-invalidator present for gold).",
"Prior state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change set to unchanged."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}