Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-29 18:56 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1 Near-term demand-tailwind narrative (grid/renewables/electrification) is dominating the latest copper-focused signal flow, biasing copper futures upward over the next 24h. 62 up accelerating 24h false 54
copper B2 Supply tightness / disruption framing (mine supply, deficits, supply-chain frictions) remains supportive of higher copper prices, but is more background/persistent than newly accelerating in the last few hours. 58 up stable 24h false 54
copper B3 Trade-policy headline risk is a two-way volatility driver for copper (risk of abrupt risk-on/risk-off swings), increasing reversal/whipsaw sensitivity even while the net narrative remains constructive. 55 mixed stable 6h false 54

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260329T185628Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T18:56:28Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term demand-tailwind narrative (grid/renewables/electrification) is dominating the latest copper-focused signal flow, biasing copper futures upward over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply tightness / disruption framing (mine supply, deficits, supply-chain frictions) remains supportive of higher copper prices, but is more background/persistent than newly accelerating in the last few hours.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy headline risk is a two-way volatility driver for copper (risk of abrupt risk-on/risk-off swings), increasing reversal/whipsaw sensitivity even while the net narrative remains constructive.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 105,
 "B": 16,
 "C": 8,
 "D": 160,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 2,
 "signals_6_24h": 1,
 "signals_24_72h": 3,
 "signals_over_72h": 4
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "A material share of admitted support is persistent/older (many 'dormant' temporal profiles), so conviction is capped despite fresh late-day updates."
 },
 {
 "flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Trade-policy related drivers are present and can cause rapid two-way repricing without needing opposing fundamental evidence in the same window."
 },
 {
 "flag": "timeseries_data_sparsity",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Per-record intra-day timestamp distribution was not available in the provided 5B payload; timeseries buckets are conservative/approximate using only the visible latest timestamps."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh demand-side confirmations continue to arrive over the next 6\u201324h without meaningful opposing evidence (e.g., demand downgrades, inventory build shock)."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines or macro risk events spike within the next 6h, raising whipsaw risk even in a bullish narrative regime."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If genuinely opposing evidence appears in the last 2\u20136h window (multi-source) that materially increases contradiction and reduces net bullish pressure."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44.5,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42.5,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
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 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 10,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit opposing/counterevidence signals were present in the admitted trend/VIP/risk sets; reversal risk therefore remains low by rule.",
 "Trend-level v2 physics fields were not provided in the gated payload; momentum and timeseries were derived conservatively from temporal_profile, newest timestamps, and evidence density proxies.",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' with unknown_prior context."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}