Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-29 18:56 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B1 |
Near-term demand-tailwind narrative (grid/renewables/electrification) is dominating the latest copper-focused signal flow, biasing copper futures upward over the next 24h. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
54 |
| copper |
B2 |
Supply tightness / disruption framing (mine supply, deficits, supply-chain frictions) remains supportive of higher copper prices, but is more background/persistent than newly accelerating in the last few hours. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
54 |
| copper |
B3 |
Trade-policy headline risk is a two-way volatility driver for copper (risk of abrupt risk-on/risk-off swings), increasing reversal/whipsaw sensitivity even while the net narrative remains constructive. |
55 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
54 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260329T185628Z-copper",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T18:56:28Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term demand-tailwind narrative (grid/renewables/electrification) is dominating the latest copper-focused signal flow, biasing copper futures upward over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply tightness / disruption framing (mine supply, deficits, supply-chain frictions) remains supportive of higher copper prices, but is more background/persistent than newly accelerating in the last few hours.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"inventory_exchange_stocks"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy headline risk is a two-way volatility driver for copper (risk of abrupt risk-on/risk-off swings), increasing reversal/whipsaw sensitivity even while the net narrative remains constructive.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 105,
"B": 16,
"C": 8,
"D": 160,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 2,
"signals_6_24h": 1,
"signals_24_72h": 3,
"signals_over_72h": 4
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A material share of admitted support is persistent/older (many 'dormant' temporal profiles), so conviction is capped despite fresh late-day updates."
},
{
"flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Trade-policy related drivers are present and can cause rapid two-way repricing without needing opposing fundamental evidence in the same window."
},
{
"flag": "timeseries_data_sparsity",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Per-record intra-day timestamp distribution was not available in the provided 5B payload; timeseries buckets are conservative/approximate using only the visible latest timestamps."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh demand-side confirmations continue to arrive over the next 6\u201324h without meaningful opposing evidence (e.g., demand downgrades, inventory build shock)."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines or macro risk events spike within the next 6h, raising whipsaw risk even in a bullish narrative regime."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If genuinely opposing evidence appears in the last 2\u20136h window (multi-source) that materially increases contradiction and reduces net bullish pressure."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 10,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit opposing/counterevidence signals were present in the admitted trend/VIP/risk sets; reversal risk therefore remains low by rule.",
"Trend-level v2 physics fields were not provided in the gated payload; momentum and timeseries were derived conservatively from temporal_profile, newest timestamps, and evidence density proxies.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' with unknown_prior context."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}