Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: counterevidence_present_supply_relief (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-29T23:59:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-24h-01 |
Coffee futures have an upward bias over the next 24h, driven by supply-chain and cost-pressure signals (freight disruption risk + input/labour cost narratives). |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
57 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-24h-02 |
Supply-improvement/plant-health narratives emerging could partially offset bullish pressure, raising odds of intraday pullbacks. |
38 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
57 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-6h-01 |
Next 6h: bullish pressure likely to persist, but elevated whipsaw risk due to mixed cost/freight tightness vs plant-health signals. |
58 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
57 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_coffee_20260329T235900Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T23:59:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-24h-01",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures have an upward bias over the next 24h, driven by broad, fresh supply-chain and cost-pressure signals (freight disruption risk + input/labour cost narratives) that typically tighten effective availability and lift risk premia.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"labour_costs",
"weather_disruptions"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-24h-02"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-24h-02",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Supply-improvement/plant-health narratives are emerging and could partially offset bullish pressure, increasing the odds of intraday pullbacks even if the broader 24h bias remains upward.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"crop_conditions_disease",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-24h-01"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-6h-01",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "In the next 6h, bullish pressure is more likely to persist than fade, but with elevated whipsaw risk due to mixed signals (cost/freight tightness vs plant-health/supply-relief).",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"labour_costs",
"crop_conditions_disease"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-24h-01",
"B-coffee-24h-02",
"B-coffee-6h-01"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 89,
"B": 3,
"C": 5,
"D": 222,
"U": 0,
"note": "Sum across admitted multi-source trend bundles; not deduplicated across trends."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 5,
"fresh_6_24h": 5,
"mid_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 0,
"note": "Estimated from per-trend latest update timestamps available in the provided corpus summaries."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-01",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "counterevidence_present_supply_relief",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Plant-health / productivity improvement narratives create genuine counter-pressure versus the broader cost/freight tightness complex."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-02",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "macro_freight_headline_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Shipping/freight disruption narratives can reprice quickly, raising gap/whipsaw risk even when directional bias is intact."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-03",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "driver_relevance_dilution",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Some admitted logistics/macro items are cross-commodity and only indirectly linked to coffee; conviction is therefore capped versus a pure origin-crop shock set."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Bias remains valid if fresh freight/cost-tightness signals persist without a material rise in fresh supply-relief counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if additional fresh (<=2h) independent supply-improvement signals appear and contradiction rises materially versus the prior cycle."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain volatility watch while macro-shipping disruption narratives remain active (headline-driven repricing risk)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises and directional score compresses into the neutral band (|score| < 20) for multiple hourly buckets, treat as rangebound/unclear."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -14,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to coffee; single-market scope enforced.",
"No explicit contradiction records were provided; counterevidence is inferred from opposing driver direction (supply-relief/plant-health vs cost/freight tightness).",
"State-change computed with unknown prior state; reported as unchanged to avoid false reversal/new-state claims.",
"Timeseries buckets are derived from available per-trend latest update timestamps and recency-weighting; underlying per-record timestamps were not provided in the gated payload."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}