Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: cross_domain_driver_noise
- generated_at: 2026-03-29T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
coffee_b1_supply_freight_upside_6h |
In the next 6 hours, coffee futures are more likely than not to face upward price pressure driven by supply‑chain/logistics frictions and higher delivery/freight risk premia. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
63 |
| coffee |
coffee_b2_demand_floor_24h |
Over the next 24 hours, supportive consumer‑demand narratives (health/wellness and market expansion themes) reduce downside risk and add to upward bias in coffee futures. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| coffee |
coffee_b3_volatility_watch_24h |
Over the next 24 hours, coffee futures are likely to remain volatile because the dominant drivers are cross‑domain (logistics + cost pressures + weather risk narratives). |
64 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-coffee-20260329T150000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "coffee_b1_supply_freight_upside_6h",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "In the next 6 hours, coffee futures are more likely than not to face upward price pressure driven by supply-chain/logistics frictions and higher delivery/freight risk premia.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"trade_logistics_port_congestion",
"global_trade_flow_disruption"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No strong fresh opposing evidence (e.g., confirmed de-escalation / rapid normalisation) present in admitted corpus"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "coffee_b2_demand_floor_24h",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, supportive consumer-demand narratives (health/wellness and market expansion themes) reduce downside risk and add to upward bias in coffee futures.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends",
"coffee_health_wellness_theme",
"consumer_behaviour_digital_ecosystems"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Macro risk headlines could shift from supply-tightness to demand-destruction framing (not yet evidenced as fresh counter-signal here)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "coffee_b3_volatility_watch_24h",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, coffee futures are likely to remain volatile because the dominant drivers are cross-domain (logistics + cost pressures + weather risk narratives) rather than a single clear crop-condition datapoint.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"labour_costs",
"weather_disruptions",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"A single definitive crop/harvest update could reduce uncertainty (not present as a late-breaking hard invalidator here)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"coffee_b1_supply_freight_upside_6h",
"coffee_b2_demand_floor_24h",
"coffee_b3_volatility_watch_24h"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 113,
"B": 3,
"C": 2,
"D": 261,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.22,
"fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.48,
"older_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.22,
"stale_over_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.08
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_id": "cross_domain_driver_noise",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "Driver mix is broad (logistics + costs + general ag narratives), which can inflate directional mass while increasing interpretation risk."
},
{
"risk_id": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "Large share of lower-tier sources in several supporting trends; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
},
{
"risk_id": "volatility_regime",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "High event-driven sensitivity (shipping/logistics + climate-risk headlines) implies elevated whipsaw potential even with low explicit counterevidence."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while directional_score_signed remains >= +20 and fresh-evidence flow continues in shipping/origin supply lanes."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility posture if contradiction_ratio rises above 0.25 or if a late-breaking (<=2h) opposing cluster appears."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Shift to reversal-watch if two or more independent fresh (<=2h) signals indicate logistics normalisation or meaningful supply easing."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as 'coffee' from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided in input; contradiction_ratio kept low and driven by cross-domain noise rather than opposing evidence.",
"VIP outliers were treated as low-weight due to single-source concentration; not used as primary directional drivers."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}