Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: headline_driven_impulse
  • generated_at: 2026-03-29 22:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CO-001 Near-term geopolitical/shipping-risk premium is dominating the crude complex, biasing Brent crude oil futures upward over the next 6–24 hours unless de-escalation headlines emerge. 62 up accelerating 6h false 55
crude_oil B-CO-002 Reversal/pullback risk is material because much of the impulse is headline-driven (spike-and-fade profile), and macro/demand-sensitive narratives can reassert quickly if risk premia cool. 44 down stable 24h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260329T220000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term geopolitical/shipping-risk premium is dominating the crude complex, biasing Brent crude oil futures upward over the next 6\u201324 hours unless de-escalation headlines emerge.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "maritime_chokepoints",
 "security_escalation_headlines",
 "regional_conflict_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Reversal/pullback risk is material because much of the impulse is headline-driven (spike-and-fade profile), and macro/demand-sensitive narratives can reassert quickly if risk premia cool.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "headline_fatigue",
 "macro_demand_overhang",
 "risk_premium_mean_reversion"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CO-001",
 "B-CO-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 187,
 "B": 5,
 "C": 8,
 "D": 338,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_age_0_6h": 6,
 "signals_age_6_24h": 13,
 "signals_age_24_72h": 3,
 "signals_age_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "headline_driven_impulse",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Dominant catalysts show spike-and-fade / late-surge temporal shapes, increasing whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_risk_premium_dominant",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Direction appears primarily supported by escalation and chokepoint/security narratives rather than inventories/OPEC policy data."
 },
 {
 "flag": "actual_counterevidence_present_but_not_dominant",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Fresh, truly opposing (bearish) evidence mass is limited versus the breadth of risk-premium narratives.",
 "actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 22
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional independent escalation / disruption confirmations arrive in the next 6h while contradiction stays low-to-moderate."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If rapid headline turnover continues (multiple security/maritime updates across the session)."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If de-escalation/normalisation headlines cluster and the next buckets show falling directional scores and rising contradiction."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if signal breadth collapses (fresh evidence count drops sharply) and direction reverts to neutral_mixed."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 20,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 75,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 88,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 75,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 80,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 80,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 80,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory present in input; used heuristic recency + breadth weighting from trend/vip metadata.",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change set using unknown_prior fallback (treated as new_bullish for current bullish state).",
 "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no <=2h opposing multi-source cluster detected in provided admitted set)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}