Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: headline_driven_impulse
- generated_at: 2026-03-29 22:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-CO-001 | Near-term geopolitical/shipping-risk premium is dominating the crude complex, biasing Brent crude oil futures upward over the next 6–24 hours unless de-escalation headlines emerge. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 55 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-002 | Reversal/pullback risk is material because much of the impulse is headline-driven (spike-and-fade profile), and macro/demand-sensitive narratives can reassert quickly if risk premia cool. | 44 | down | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260329T220000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term geopolitical/shipping-risk premium is dominating the crude complex, biasing Brent crude oil futures upward over the next 6\u201324 hours unless de-escalation headlines emerge.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"maritime_chokepoints",
"security_escalation_headlines",
"regional_conflict_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Reversal/pullback risk is material because much of the impulse is headline-driven (spike-and-fade profile), and macro/demand-sensitive narratives can reassert quickly if risk premia cool.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"headline_fatigue",
"macro_demand_overhang",
"risk_premium_mean_reversion"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 187,
"B": 5,
"C": 8,
"D": 338,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_age_0_6h": 6,
"signals_age_6_24h": 13,
"signals_age_24_72h": 3,
"signals_age_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_driven_impulse",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Dominant catalysts show spike-and-fade / late-surge temporal shapes, increasing whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_risk_premium_dominant",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Direction appears primarily supported by escalation and chokepoint/security narratives rather than inventories/OPEC policy data."
},
{
"flag": "actual_counterevidence_present_but_not_dominant",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Fresh, truly opposing (bearish) evidence mass is limited versus the breadth of risk-premium narratives.",
"actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 22
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional independent escalation / disruption confirmations arrive in the next 6h while contradiction stays low-to-moderate."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If rapid headline turnover continues (multiple security/maritime updates across the session)."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If de-escalation/normalisation headlines cluster and the next buckets show falling directional scores and rising contradiction."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if signal breadth collapses (fresh evidence count drops sharply) and direction reverts to neutral_mixed."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 75,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 75,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 80,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 80,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 80,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory present in input; used heuristic recency + breadth weighting from trend/vip metadata.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change set using unknown_prior fallback (treated as new_bullish for current bullish state).",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no <=2h opposing multi-source cluster detected in provided admitted set)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}