Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: N/A
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_driver_concentration
- generated_at: 2026-03-29T15:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-crude_oil-001 | Geopolitical escalation and maritime security risk (Red Sea/Yemen/Strait of Hormuz/Iran-linked headlines) is adding a short-term risk premium biasing Brent futures upward. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 54 |
| crude_oil | B-crude_oil-002 | If escalation headlines persist through the next session, Brent futures are more likely to hold elevated pricing (risk premium persistence) than mean-revert sharply lower. | 57 | up | stable | 24h | false | 54 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260329-150500Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T15:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation and maritime security risk (Red Sea / Yemen / Strait of Hormuz / Iran-linked headlines) is adding a short-term risk premium biasing Brent crude oil futures upward.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"opec_supply_policy",
"inventory_storage (risk-premium sensitivity; no direct inventory prints in admitted set)",
"refining_constraints (secondary; not directly evidenced in admitted set)",
"macro_demand (secondary; not directly evidenced in admitted set)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "If escalation headlines persist through the next session, Brent crude oil futures are more likely to hold elevated pricing (risk premium persistence) than mean-revert sharply lower.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"maritime_chokepoints",
"national_oil_companies (exposure sensitivity; no direct NOC operational change evidenced)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Event-driven risk premium can fade quickly if no new incidents occur (spike-and-fade pattern risk in parts of the corpus)."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude_oil-001",
"B-crude_oil-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 12,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 0,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 3,
"signals_6_24h": 9,
"signals_24_72h": 0,
"signals_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "geopolitical_driver_concentration",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Admitted directional mass is dominated by conflict/chokepoint narratives; limited direct macro-demand, inventory, or OPEC quota-change evidence in the admitted set."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "event_premium_spike_and_fade_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Several top signals show spike-and-fade temporal profiles; absent continued fresh incidents, risk premium can decay quickly."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "low_counterevidence_present",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "No meaningful fresh bearish counter-thesis is present in the admitted corpus; reversal risk comes mainly from narrative fade, not opposing evidence mass."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh escalation / shipping-risk headlines persist or broaden within the next 6 hours without offsetting supply-restoration or demand-shock counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Any confirmed incident affecting Red Sea / Gulf shipping lanes or explicit Strait of Hormuz risk language appears in multiple independent sources within a 1\u20132 hour window."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "A rapid drop in escalation intensity (no new incidents) plus emergence of fresh bearish macro/demand or supply-relief evidence in the last 2\u20136 hours."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Signal breadth collapses to a small number of low-diversity sources and no Tier-A corroboration appears for new claims."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 67,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 87,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 77,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 76,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 78,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 80,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 92,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 82,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 94,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 84,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 97,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 87,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 95,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 85,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 96,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 86,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 98,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 88,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 100,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 90,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 68,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No explicit counter-trends/contradictions provided; reversal risk derived primarily from event-driven fade risk rather than opposing evidence mass.",
"Prior state not provided in input; state_change emitted as 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}