Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: N/A
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_driver_concentration
  • generated_at: 2026-03-29T15:05:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude_oil-001 Geopolitical escalation and maritime security risk (Red Sea/Yemen/Strait of Hormuz/Iran-linked headlines) is adding a short-term risk premium biasing Brent futures upward. 62 up accelerating 6h false 54
crude_oil B-crude_oil-002 If escalation headlines persist through the next session, Brent futures are more likely to hold elevated pricing (risk premium persistence) than mean-revert sharply lower. 57 up stable 24h false 54

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260329-150500Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T15:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical escalation and maritime security risk (Red Sea / Yemen / Strait of Hormuz / Iran-linked headlines) is adding a short-term risk premium biasing Brent crude oil futures upward.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "opec_supply_policy",
 "inventory_storage (risk-premium sensitivity; no direct inventory prints in admitted set)",
 "refining_constraints (secondary; not directly evidenced in admitted set)",
 "macro_demand (secondary; not directly evidenced in admitted set)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "If escalation headlines persist through the next session, Brent crude oil futures are more likely to hold elevated pricing (risk premium persistence) than mean-revert sharply lower.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "maritime_chokepoints",
 "national_oil_companies (exposure sensitivity; no direct NOC operational change evidenced)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Event-driven risk premium can fade quickly if no new incidents occur (spike-and-fade pattern risk in parts of the corpus)."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude_oil-001",
 "B-crude_oil-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 12,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 0,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 3,
 "signals_6_24h": 9,
 "signals_24_72h": 0,
 "signals_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "geopolitical_driver_concentration",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Admitted directional mass is dominated by conflict/chokepoint narratives; limited direct macro-demand, inventory, or OPEC quota-change evidence in the admitted set."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "event_premium_spike_and_fade_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Several top signals show spike-and-fade temporal profiles; absent continued fresh incidents, risk premium can decay quickly."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "low_counterevidence_present",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "No meaningful fresh bearish counter-thesis is present in the admitted corpus; reversal risk comes mainly from narrative fade, not opposing evidence mass."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh escalation / shipping-risk headlines persist or broaden within the next 6 hours without offsetting supply-restoration or demand-shock counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Any confirmed incident affecting Red Sea / Gulf shipping lanes or explicit Strait of Hormuz risk language appears in multiple independent sources within a 1\u20132 hour window."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "A rapid drop in escalation intensity (no new incidents) plus emergence of fresh bearish macro/demand or supply-relief evidence in the last 2\u20136 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Signal breadth collapses to a small number of low-diversity sources and no Tier-A corroboration appears for new claims."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 57,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 67,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 87,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 77,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 86,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 76,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 88,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 78,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 80,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 92,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 82,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 94,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 84,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 97,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 87,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 95,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 85,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 96,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 86,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 98,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 88,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 100,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 90,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 68,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "No explicit counter-trends/contradictions provided; reversal risk derived primarily from event-driven fade risk rather than opposing evidence mass.",
 "Prior state not provided in input; state_change emitted as 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}