Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: authority_light_vs_mass_consensus
  • generated_at: 2026-03-28T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-URANIUM-001 Uranium futures have an upward bias over the next 24h as nuclear build/SMR policy narratives and energy-security support forward demand. 68 up stable 24h false 41
uranium B-URANIUM-002 Downside is buffered near-term by persistent supply-chain/geopolitical supply-risk framing, supporting a firmer floor/risk-premium. 60 up fading 24h false 41
uranium B-URANIUM-003 Over next 6h sentiment modestly constructive, more likely up than down, but gains may be incremental rather than breakout due to slow policy catalysts. 60 up stable 6h false 41

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260328T120000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URANIUM-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium futures have an upward bias over the next 24h as nuclear build/SMR policy narratives and energy-security positioning remain broadly supportive of forward demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 68,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_policy",
 "energy_security",
 "nuclear_innovation"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URANIUM-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium futures downside is partially buffered in the near term by persistent supply-chain/geopolitical supply-risk framing (supports a firmer floor/risk-premium).",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "energy_security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URANIUM-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, sentiment remains modestly constructive (more likely up than down), but gains may be incremental rather than breakout given slow-velocity policy-driven catalysts.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "nuclear_innovation"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-URANIUM-001",
 "B-URANIUM-002",
 "B-URANIUM-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 131,
 "B": 17,
 "C": 24,
 "D": 266,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 5,
 "fresh_24_72h": 6,
 "fresh_over_72h": 1
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-URANIUM-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "authority_light_vs_mass_consensus",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Directional mass is broad and fresh enough to carry conviction, but the source mix remains skewed toward lower-tier domains; treat the bullish thesis as more sentiment-driven than officially-confirmed."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-URANIUM-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "slow_burn_policy_catalysts",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "Key drivers are policy/regulatory and reactor deployment narratives with generally slow velocity; near-term momentum can stall without a discrete market-structural catalyst."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-URANIUM-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "timeseries_bucket_sparsity",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "Timeseries buckets are derived from available per-trend newest/peak timestamps rather than full per-record timestamp distributions, increasing uncertainty in intra-day shape."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch while directional mass remains positive and no fresh opposing cluster appears in the last 2h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if a late-breaking opposing policy/supply headline cluster emerges (2+ independent signals within 2h) causing contradiction ratio to rise."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if fresh counterevidence appears and directional_score_signed drops toward neutral (|score| < 20) alongside a contradiction spike."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit counterevidence objects were provided in 5B contradictions/risk sets for uranium direction; counterevidence score treated as low.",
 "Timeseries intra-day buckets use available per-trend newest/peak timestamps as allocation anchors; full per-record timestamp distribution not present in the gated payload.",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change emitted as unchanged (unknown_prior)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}