Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-03-28T23:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-silver-1 |
Near-term silver futures bias is slightly downward-to-rangebound as macro headwinds (USD strength / higher real rates / hawkish repricing) offset safe-haven and structural-demand narratives. |
56 |
mixed |
fading |
6h |
false |
58 |
| silver |
B-silver-2 |
Structural/medium-term support remains present (industrial demand + multi-year supply tightness narrative), limiting sustained downside absent a renewed USD/real-rate surge. |
59 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| silver |
B-silver-3 |
Volatility is likely to remain elevated due to geopolitical and central-bank uncertainty, raising whipsaw risk around key technical levels. |
63 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260328-silver-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-1",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Near-term silver futures bias is slightly downward-to-rangebound as macro headwinds (USD strength / higher real rates / hawkish repricing) offset safe-haven and structural-demand narratives.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Real-rates / rate-expectations pressure on non-yielding metals",
"USD strength sensitivity",
"Recent technical breakdown / resistance overhead (contextual)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Safe-haven demand spillover from geopolitical risk",
"Incremental ETF/vehicle accumulation headlines"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-2",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Structural/medium-term support remains present (industrial demand + multi-year supply tightness narrative), limiting sustained downside absent a renewed USD/real-rate surge.",
"probability_pct": 59,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Industrial demand narrative (solar/electronics/data-centre build-out)",
"Supply deficit / constrained inventory narrative",
"Mining operational disruptions and restart headlines are mixed (tightness vs restart)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Evidence of ETF holdings drawdowns in parts of the corpus",
"Macro tightening / inflation-risk driven yields"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-3",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Volatility is likely to remain elevated due to geopolitical and central-bank uncertainty, raising whipsaw risk around key technical levels.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical risk headlines influencing safe-haven allocation",
"Cross-asset volatility spillover (risk-off episodes)",
"Policy-path uncertainty (Fed/central banks)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 69,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-silver-1",
"B-silver-2",
"B-silver-3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 24,
"B": 2,
"C": 4,
"D": 18,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 2,
"fresh_6_24h": 4,
"stale_24_72h": 2,
"stale_over_72h": 1
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Macro-tightening pressure and safe-haven demand signals are both present; net direction is sensitive to the next high-salience rate/geopolitical headline."
},
{
"flag": "recency_flip_risk",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Recent hours added both supportive (investment vehicle accumulation) and demand-adjacent (solar/industrial) signals, while prior-day technical/macro pressure remains unresolved."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_elevated",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Supportive structural-demand/supply narratives conflict with near-term USD/real-rate headwinds; conviction is capped despite broad coverage."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while directional score remains inside a mixed/range band and reversal risk remains medium."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if macro/geopolitical headlines cluster and contradiction ratio stays elevated (whipsaw risk)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade if multiple fresh (<=24h) independent signals align in one direction (either renewed hawkish repricing or broad safe-haven inflows)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 64,
"net_sentiment_score": -28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 63,
"net_sentiment_score": -27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 63,
"net_sentiment_score": -25,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 63,
"net_sentiment_score": -24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 63,
"net_sentiment_score": -23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 63,
"net_sentiment_score": -22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 63,
"net_sentiment_score": -21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 63,
"net_sentiment_score": -20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 62,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 62,
"net_sentiment_score": -17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 61,
"net_sentiment_score": -15,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 61,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 60,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 60,
"net_sentiment_score": -11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 59,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 59,
"net_sentiment_score": -9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -7,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.64,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 60,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.66,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 60,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 60,
"net_sentiment_score": -9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.64,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 60,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.64,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 61,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": -5,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -28,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bearish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state unavailable (no trend_state_memory / prior state table provided); state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown_prior.",
"Directional mass is broad but split between macro headwinds (rates/USD) and supportive narratives (safe-haven/industrial demand), keeping directional conviction capped."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}