Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-03-28T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-silver-1 Near-term silver futures bias is slightly downward-to-rangebound as macro headwinds (USD strength / higher real rates / hawkish repricing) offset safe-haven and structural-demand narratives. 56 mixed fading 6h false 58
silver B-silver-2 Structural/medium-term support remains present (industrial demand + multi-year supply tightness narrative), limiting sustained downside absent a renewed USD/real-rate surge. 59 up stable 24h false 58
silver B-silver-3 Volatility is likely to remain elevated due to geopolitical and central-bank uncertainty, raising whipsaw risk around key technical levels. 63 mixed accelerating 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260328-silver-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-1",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Near-term silver futures bias is slightly downward-to-rangebound as macro headwinds (USD strength / higher real rates / hawkish repricing) offset safe-haven and structural-demand narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Real-rates / rate-expectations pressure on non-yielding metals",
 "USD strength sensitivity",
 "Recent technical breakdown / resistance overhead (contextual)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Safe-haven demand spillover from geopolitical risk",
 "Incremental ETF/vehicle accumulation headlines"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-2",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Structural/medium-term support remains present (industrial demand + multi-year supply tightness narrative), limiting sustained downside absent a renewed USD/real-rate surge.",
 "probability_pct": 59,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Industrial demand narrative (solar/electronics/data-centre build-out)",
 "Supply deficit / constrained inventory narrative",
 "Mining operational disruptions and restart headlines are mixed (tightness vs restart)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Evidence of ETF holdings drawdowns in parts of the corpus",
 "Macro tightening / inflation-risk driven yields"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-3",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Volatility is likely to remain elevated due to geopolitical and central-bank uncertainty, raising whipsaw risk around key technical levels.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical risk headlines influencing safe-haven allocation",
 "Cross-asset volatility spillover (risk-off episodes)",
 "Policy-path uncertainty (Fed/central banks)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 69,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-silver-1",
 "B-silver-2",
 "B-silver-3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 24,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 4,
 "D": 18,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 2,
 "fresh_6_24h": 4,
 "stale_24_72h": 2,
 "stale_over_72h": 1
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Macro-tightening pressure and safe-haven demand signals are both present; net direction is sensitive to the next high-salience rate/geopolitical headline."
 },
 {
 "flag": "recency_flip_risk",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Recent hours added both supportive (investment vehicle accumulation) and demand-adjacent (solar/industrial) signals, while prior-day technical/macro pressure remains unresolved."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_elevated",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Supportive structural-demand/supply narratives conflict with near-term USD/real-rate headwinds; conviction is capped despite broad coverage."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while directional score remains inside a mixed/range band and reversal risk remains medium."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if macro/geopolitical headlines cluster and contradiction ratio stays elevated (whipsaw risk)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Upgrade if multiple fresh (<=24h) independent signals align in one direction (either renewed hawkish repricing or broad safe-haven inflows)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 64,
 "net_sentiment_score": -28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 63,
 "net_sentiment_score": -27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 63,
 "net_sentiment_score": -25,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 63,
 "net_sentiment_score": -24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 63,
 "net_sentiment_score": -23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 63,
 "net_sentiment_score": -22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
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 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 63,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
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 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 63,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z",
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 {
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 61,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T10:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 61,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 60,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 60,
 "net_sentiment_score": -11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 59,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": -9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 59,
 "net_sentiment_score": -9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -7,
 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.64,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 60,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.66,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 60,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 60,
 "net_sentiment_score": -9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.64,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 60,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.64,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 61,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": -5,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -28,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bearish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state unavailable (no trend_state_memory / prior state table provided); state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown_prior.",
 "Directional mass is broad but split between macro headwinds (rates/USD) and supportive narratives (safe-haven/industrial demand), keeping directional conviction capped."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}