Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-001
- generated_at: 2026-03-28T21:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term risk premium is skewed higher due to elevated geopolitical/LNG-shipping disruption risk (Middle East / Hormuz / Qatar-linked flows). |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
57 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Over the next 24h the upside bias persists, but remains fragile and headline-sensitive; de-escalation or confirmation of normal LNG flows would quickly compress the risk premium. |
58 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
57 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260328T210000Z-natural_gas",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term risk premium is skewed higher due to elevated geopolitical/LNG-shipping disruption risk (Middle East / Hormuz / Qatar-linked flows).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical escalation / energy-security headlines clustering in the last ~6h",
"Multiple LNG-flow and shipping-disruption themed signals (QatarEnergy/LNG logistics/Hormuz exposure)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Soft/positive-toned Qatar-related development signal suggesting potential stabilisation (weak counterweight)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h the upside bias persists, but remains fragile and headline-sensitive; de-escalation or confirmation of normal LNG flows would quickly compress the risk premium.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Event-driven pricing dynamics (geopolitics/shipping)",
"High recency concentration of the dominant thesis"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any fresh, credible de-escalation / flow-normalisation updates (not present as strong counterevidence in current admitted corpus)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 209,
"B": 13,
"C": 1,
"D": 238,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 8,
"signals_6_24h": 0,
"signals_24_72h": 2,
"signals_over_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_id": "RF-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "event_driven_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Dominant driver is geopolitical/LNG-shipping disruption risk; headline flow can swing quickly."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "fundamental_data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Current admitted corpus is dominated by geopolitics/logistics signals; limited direct weather/storage/production balancing evidence in this slice."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Any de-escalation/flow-normalisation headline could rapidly compress the risk premium."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh confirmation (next 0\u20136h) of LNG flow disruption risk / escalation without offsetting de-escalation signals."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any Tier-A headline indicating escalation or explicit restoration/normalisation of LNG shipping routes."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent, fresh (<=2h) de-escalation or 'flows normal' confirmations appearing in the corpus."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional evidence flow stalls for >24h and the remaining support is predominantly stale/background."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
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"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2222,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2083,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1923,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1667,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior-state memory not provided to 6B in this payload; state_change set to 'unchanged' (unknown prior).",
"Directional mapping interprets supply/LNG-shipping disruption risk as bullish price pressure for natural_gas; 'sentiment' fields in upstream trends reflect narrative tone, not price direction."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}