Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NG-001
  • generated_at: 2026-03-28T21:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term risk premium is skewed higher due to elevated geopolitical/LNG-shipping disruption risk (Middle East / Hormuz / Qatar-linked flows). 62 up accelerating 6h false 57
natural_gas B-NG-002 Over the next 24h the upside bias persists, but remains fragile and headline-sensitive; de-escalation or confirmation of normal LNG flows would quickly compress the risk premium. 58 mixed stable 24h false 57

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260328T210000Z-natural_gas",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term risk premium is skewed higher due to elevated geopolitical/LNG-shipping disruption risk (Middle East / Hormuz / Qatar-linked flows).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical escalation / energy-security headlines clustering in the last ~6h",
 "Multiple LNG-flow and shipping-disruption themed signals (QatarEnergy/LNG logistics/Hormuz exposure)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Soft/positive-toned Qatar-related development signal suggesting potential stabilisation (weak counterweight)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h the upside bias persists, but remains fragile and headline-sensitive; de-escalation or confirmation of normal LNG flows would quickly compress the risk premium.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Event-driven pricing dynamics (geopolitics/shipping)",
 "High recency concentration of the dominant thesis"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any fresh, credible de-escalation / flow-normalisation updates (not present as strong counterevidence in current admitted corpus)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 209,
 "B": 13,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 238,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 8,
 "signals_6_24h": 0,
 "signals_24_72h": 2,
 "signals_over_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "event_driven_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Dominant driver is geopolitical/LNG-shipping disruption risk; headline flow can swing quickly."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "fundamental_data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Current admitted corpus is dominated by geopolitics/logistics signals; limited direct weather/storage/production balancing evidence in this slice."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Any de-escalation/flow-normalisation headline could rapidly compress the risk premium."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh confirmation (next 0\u20136h) of LNG flow disruption risk / escalation without offsetting de-escalation signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any Tier-A headline indicating escalation or explicit restoration/normalisation of LNG shipping routes."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent, fresh (<=2h) de-escalation or 'flows normal' confirmations appearing in the corpus."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional evidence flow stalls for >24h and the remaining support is predominantly stale/background."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3333,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2857,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2222,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2083,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1923,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1667,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior-state memory not provided to 6B in this payload; state_change set to 'unchanged' (unknown prior).",
 "Directional mapping interprets supply/LNG-shipping disruption risk as bullish price pressure for natural_gas; 'sentiment' fields in upstream trends reflect narrative tone, not price direction."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}