Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-03-28T06:34:52Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Geopolitical and LNG-shipping disruption risk (Qatar/Iran/Hormuz-related) is creating upward skew in near-term natural gas futures pricing. |
62% |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
58 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Headline-driven volatility remains elevated; intraday whipsaw risk is material even if net directional bias stays upward. |
70% |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_natural_gas_2026-03-28T06:34:52Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T06:34:52Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Geopolitical and LNG-shipping disruption risk (Qatar/Iran/Hormuz-related) is creating upward skew in near-term natural gas futures pricing.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"production_outages"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Headline-driven volatility remains elevated; intraday whipsaw risk is material even if net directional bias stays upward.",
"probability_pct": 70,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 237,
"B": 20,
"C": 2,
"D": 307,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 4,
"fresh_6_24h": 5,
"stale_24_72h": 2,
"stale_over_72h": 3
},
"directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 34,
"regime_state": "tightening"
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Direction supported largely by geopolitical/LNG-shipping narratives; price reaction can flip quickly on de-escalation or clarification headlines."
},
{
"risk_flag": "data_arena_imbalance",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Admitted corpus is dominated by geopolitics/LNG flow risk; limited direct, fresh coverage in storage_levels/seasonal_weather_demand within the provided signal set."
},
{
"risk_flag": "singleton_echo_risk_present",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; they are down-weighted but raise the chance of noisy micro-narratives."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source confirmation of LNG disruption/shipping constraint persists without fresh opposing evidence, maintain bullish watch bias."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If additional geopolitical escalation/port or shipping constraint headlines land, expect volatility expansion regardless of direction."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh, multi-source de-escalation or restoration-of-flows evidence appears (>=2 independent records inside 2h), treat as potential bullish thesis weakening."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially (fresh opposing evidence appears) and directional score compresses into [-20,+20], prefer neutral stance."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
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"velocity_score": 2,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
}
}