Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-03-28T06:34:52Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Geopolitical and LNG-shipping disruption risk (Qatar/Iran/Hormuz-related) is creating upward skew in near-term natural gas futures pricing. 62% up stable 6h false 58
natural_gas B-NG-002 Headline-driven volatility remains elevated; intraday whipsaw risk is material even if net directional bias stays upward. 70% mixed accelerating 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_natural_gas_2026-03-28T06:34:52Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T06:34:52Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Geopolitical and LNG-shipping disruption risk (Qatar/Iran/Hormuz-related) is creating upward skew in near-term natural gas futures pricing.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "lng_export_flows",
 "pipeline_infrastructure",
 "production_outages"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Headline-driven volatility remains elevated; intraday whipsaw risk is material even if net directional bias stays upward.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "lng_export_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 237,
 "B": 20,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 307,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 4,
 "fresh_6_24h": 5,
 "stale_24_72h": 2,
 "stale_over_72h": 3
 },
 "directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 34,
 "regime_state": "tightening"
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Direction supported largely by geopolitical/LNG-shipping narratives; price reaction can flip quickly on de-escalation or clarification headlines."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "data_arena_imbalance",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Admitted corpus is dominated by geopolitics/LNG flow risk; limited direct, fresh coverage in storage_levels/seasonal_weather_demand within the provided signal set."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "singleton_echo_risk_present",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; they are down-weighted but raise the chance of noisy micro-narratives."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source confirmation of LNG disruption/shipping constraint persists without fresh opposing evidence, maintain bullish watch bias."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional geopolitical escalation/port or shipping constraint headlines land, expect volatility expansion regardless of direction."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh, multi-source de-escalation or restoration-of-flows evidence appears (>=2 independent records inside 2h), treat as potential bullish thesis weakening."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially (fresh opposing evidence appears) and directional score compresses into [-20,+20], prefer neutral stance."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": -3,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 35,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 }
}