Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: indirect_driver_bias (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-28T23:15:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Net-news flow around EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity expansion is currently supportive for lithium futures (demand-led bias). | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| lithium | B-LI-002 | Very recent updates (last ~6 hours) increased bullish pressure for lithium-linked demand narratives, lifting near-term sentiment. | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 55 |
| lithium | B-LI-003 | Two-sided risk is elevated because supply-side developments and policy/regulatory items can rapidly change the balance of sentiment despite broadly positive demand narratives. | 55 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260328T231500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T23:15:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 59,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Net-news flow around EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity expansion is currently supportive for lithium futures (demand-led bias).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand",
"battery_supply_chain",
"refining_capacity",
"ev_policy_subsidies"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Supply-response narrative risk (new/expanded extraction and processing capacity) can cap near-term upside even if demand signals remain positive."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Very recent updates (last ~6 hours) increased bullish pressure for lithium-linked demand narratives, lifting near-term sentiment.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand",
"battery_supply_chain"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Indirectness risk: most evidence is thematic (EV/battery ecosystem) rather than direct lithium pricing/spot-tightness signals."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Two-sided risk is elevated because supply-side developments and policy/regulatory items can rapidly change the balance of sentiment despite broadly positive demand narratives.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"lithium_mining_supply",
"china_policy",
"ev_policy_subsidies"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Current admitted corpus contains little fresh, explicit bearish lithium-price evidence; most downside is scenario-based rather than observed counterevidence."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 59,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002",
"B-LI-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 161,
"B": 10,
"C": 31,
"D": 212,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_item_count": 9,
"fresh_6_24h_item_count": 0,
"fresh_24_72h_item_count": 4,
"stale_over_72h_item_count": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "indirect_driver_bias",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "lithium",
"details": "Most admitted evidence is EV/battery ecosystem demand signalling rather than direct lithium pricing/physical tightness; raises fragility if macro narrative shifts."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "lithium",
"details": "Several supporting threads are multi-day slow-burn narratives; conviction relies on continued fresh confirmation to avoid fade."
},
{
"flag": "policy_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "lithium",
"details": "Regulatory/policy-linked items (US/EU/Chile/China-linked entities) can introduce rapid sentiment reversals without much warning."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_direct_price_link",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "lithium",
"details": "No explicit counterevidence, but also limited direct lithium futures/spot-market datapoints inside admitted set; medium reversal risk maintained."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh EV/battery capacity expansion signals continue and no fresh, explicit lithium-oversupply/price-weakness evidence appears."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if fresh (<=24h) opposing evidence emerges from multiple independent sources indicating demand slowdown, policy rollback, or rapid supply shock."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Remain on volatility watch while supply-expansion and policy items stay active, as they can compress or flip sentiment despite positive demand narratives."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 52,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 31,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit prior market state provided; state_change computed assuming unknown_prior defaults to neutral_mixed for transition classification.",
"No per-record trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields available in provided payload; momentum and reversal risk inferred from recency proxies, temporal profiles, and contradiction absence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}