Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: indirect_driver_bias (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-28T23:15:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Net-news flow around EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity expansion is currently supportive for lithium futures (demand-led bias). 62 up stable 24h false 55
lithium B-LI-002 Very recent updates (last ~6 hours) increased bullish pressure for lithium-linked demand narratives, lifting near-term sentiment. 58 up accelerating 6h false 55
lithium B-LI-003 Two-sided risk is elevated because supply-side developments and policy/regulatory items can rapidly change the balance of sentiment despite broadly positive demand narratives. 55 mixed stable 24h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260328T231500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T23:15:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 59,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Net-news flow around EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity expansion is currently supportive for lithium futures (demand-led bias).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "battery_supply_chain",
 "refining_capacity",
 "ev_policy_subsidies"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Supply-response narrative risk (new/expanded extraction and processing capacity) can cap near-term upside even if demand signals remain positive."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Very recent updates (last ~6 hours) increased bullish pressure for lithium-linked demand narratives, lifting near-term sentiment.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "battery_supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Indirectness risk: most evidence is thematic (EV/battery ecosystem) rather than direct lithium pricing/spot-tightness signals."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Two-sided risk is elevated because supply-side developments and policy/regulatory items can rapidly change the balance of sentiment despite broadly positive demand narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "lithium_mining_supply",
 "china_policy",
 "ev_policy_subsidies"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Current admitted corpus contains little fresh, explicit bearish lithium-price evidence; most downside is scenario-based rather than observed counterevidence."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 59,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-002",
 "B-LI-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 161,
 "B": 10,
 "C": 31,
 "D": 212,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_item_count": 9,
 "fresh_6_24h_item_count": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h_item_count": 4,
 "stale_over_72h_item_count": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "indirect_driver_bias",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "details": "Most admitted evidence is EV/battery ecosystem demand signalling rather than direct lithium pricing/physical tightness; raises fragility if macro narrative shifts."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "details": "Several supporting threads are multi-day slow-burn narratives; conviction relies on continued fresh confirmation to avoid fade."
 },
 {
 "flag": "policy_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "details": "Regulatory/policy-linked items (US/EU/Chile/China-linked entities) can introduce rapid sentiment reversals without much warning."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_direct_price_link",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "details": "No explicit counterevidence, but also limited direct lithium futures/spot-market datapoints inside admitted set; medium reversal risk maintained."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh EV/battery capacity expansion signals continue and no fresh, explicit lithium-oversupply/price-weakness evidence appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if fresh (<=24h) opposing evidence emerges from multiple independent sources indicating demand slowdown, policy rollback, or rapid supply shock."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain on volatility watch while supply-expansion and policy items stay active, as they can compress or flip sentiment despite positive demand narratives."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 },
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
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 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
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 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
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 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 31,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit prior market state provided; state_change computed assuming unknown_prior defaults to neutral_mixed for transition classification.",
 "No per-record trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields available in provided payload; momentum and reversal risk inferred from recency proxies, temporal profiles, and contradiction absence."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}