Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-INDIRECT-DRIVERS (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-28T00:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-ev_demand-6h-001 Near-term lithium futures sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity expansion signals remain supportive for lithium demand. 61 up accelerating 6h false 52
lithium B-lithium-supply_chain-24h-002 Over the next 24h, net lithium futures sentiment remains bullish but is fragile because most admitted drivers are indirect (EV/battery narratives) rather than direct spot/contract pricing catalysts. 58 up stable 24h false 52

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-lithium-20260328T000000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-ev_demand-6h-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity expansion signals remain supportive for lithium demand.",
 "probability_pct": 61,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption signals (multi-source, sustained)",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives (multi-source, sustained)",
 "Supply-chain/critical-minerals policy support signals (DOE / policy-linked)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-supply_chain-24h-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, net lithium futures sentiment remains bullish but is fragile because most admitted drivers are indirect (EV/battery narratives) rather than direct spot/contract pricing catalysts.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Lithium supply-chain development and extraction narratives (Rio Tinto / Albemarle / Chile policy clusters)",
 "Policy/critical-minerals investment framing (DOE)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Sparse explicit counter-directional evidence in the admitted set (absence is not counterevidence)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-lithium-ev_demand-6h-001",
 "B-lithium-supply_chain-24h-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 158,
 "B": 5,
 "C": 29,
 "D": 186,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_evidence_window_hours": 24,
 "fresh_signal_count_est": 3,
 "stale_signal_count_est": 9,
 "notes": "Freshness is driven mainly by a small subset of trends showing newest evidence timestamps on 2026-03-27 to 2026-03-28; the broader corpus spans >7 days."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-INDIRECT-DRIVERS",
 "market": "lithium",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Most admitted support is narrative/driver-based (EV adoption, battery capacity, policy). Direct lithium pricing/physical tightness signals are not explicitly present in the admitted set, increasing interpretation fragility."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-EVIDENCE-SPAN-OVERHANG",
 "market": "lithium",
 "level": "low",
 "description": "Several high-weight trends have evidence spans >7 days (slow-burn). This can reduce responsiveness to late-breaking reversals if new opposing evidence emerges."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LOW-COUNTEREVIDENCE-VS-UNKNOWN",
 "market": "lithium",
 "level": "low",
 "description": "Counter-directional evidence is sparse in the admitted corpus. This is not the same as proof of low downside risk; reversal risk may jump if fresh opposing signals appear."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-TIMESTAMP-ALIGNMENT",
 "market": "lithium",
 "level": "low",
 "description": "Some provided newest-evidence timestamps appear later than the snapshot timestamp (2026-03-28T00:00:00Z). Timeseries/recency weighting uses the snapshot window boundaries conservatively."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh multi-source confirmation persists in the last 24h window and no material opposing evidence appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if contradiction increases (fresh opposing signals) or if late-breaking policy/trade-flow headlines emerge."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Upgrade reversal watch only if 2+ independent opposing signals arrive within <=2h (kill-switch criteria) or a single hard invalidator appears."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: lithium.",
 "No explicit opposing (bearish) lithium-price thesis was present in the admitted signal set; reversal risk kept low but fragility remains moderate due to indirect driver linkage.",
 "Timeseries bucket scores are conservative, derived from admitted-trend recency and sustained-vs-dormant profiles rather than full per-record timestamp reconstruction (per-record physics not provided in this payload).",
 "Prior market state not provided (trend_state_memory absent); state_change left as 'unchanged' to avoid implying a regime flip."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}