Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-INDIRECT-DRIVERS (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-28T00:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-lithium-ev_demand-6h-001 | Near-term lithium futures sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity expansion signals remain supportive for lithium demand. | 61 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 52 |
| lithium | B-lithium-supply_chain-24h-002 | Over the next 24h, net lithium futures sentiment remains bullish but is fragile because most admitted drivers are indirect (EV/battery narratives) rather than direct spot/contract pricing catalysts. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-lithium-20260328T000000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-ev_demand-6h-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity expansion signals remain supportive for lithium demand.",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption signals (multi-source, sustained)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives (multi-source, sustained)",
"Supply-chain/critical-minerals policy support signals (DOE / policy-linked)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-supply_chain-24h-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, net lithium futures sentiment remains bullish but is fragile because most admitted drivers are indirect (EV/battery narratives) rather than direct spot/contract pricing catalysts.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Lithium supply-chain development and extraction narratives (Rio Tinto / Albemarle / Chile policy clusters)",
"Policy/critical-minerals investment framing (DOE)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Sparse explicit counter-directional evidence in the admitted set (absence is not counterevidence)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-lithium-ev_demand-6h-001",
"B-lithium-supply_chain-24h-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 158,
"B": 5,
"C": 29,
"D": 186,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_evidence_window_hours": 24,
"fresh_signal_count_est": 3,
"stale_signal_count_est": 9,
"notes": "Freshness is driven mainly by a small subset of trends showing newest evidence timestamps on 2026-03-27 to 2026-03-28; the broader corpus spans >7 days."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-INDIRECT-DRIVERS",
"market": "lithium",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Most admitted support is narrative/driver-based (EV adoption, battery capacity, policy). Direct lithium pricing/physical tightness signals are not explicitly present in the admitted set, increasing interpretation fragility."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-EVIDENCE-SPAN-OVERHANG",
"market": "lithium",
"level": "low",
"description": "Several high-weight trends have evidence spans >7 days (slow-burn). This can reduce responsiveness to late-breaking reversals if new opposing evidence emerges."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LOW-COUNTEREVIDENCE-VS-UNKNOWN",
"market": "lithium",
"level": "low",
"description": "Counter-directional evidence is sparse in the admitted corpus. This is not the same as proof of low downside risk; reversal risk may jump if fresh opposing signals appear."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-TIMESTAMP-ALIGNMENT",
"market": "lithium",
"level": "low",
"description": "Some provided newest-evidence timestamps appear later than the snapshot timestamp (2026-03-28T00:00:00Z). Timeseries/recency weighting uses the snapshot window boundaries conservatively."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh multi-source confirmation persists in the last 24h window and no material opposing evidence appears."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if contradiction increases (fresh opposing signals) or if late-breaking policy/trade-flow headlines emerge."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade reversal watch only if 2+ independent opposing signals arrive within <=2h (kill-switch criteria) or a single hard invalidator appears."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: lithium.",
"No explicit opposing (bearish) lithium-price thesis was present in the admitted signal set; reversal risk kept low but fragility remains moderate due to indirect driver linkage.",
"Timeseries bucket scores are conservative, derived from admitted-trend recency and sustained-vs-dormant profiles rather than full per-record timestamp reconstruction (per-record physics not provided in this payload).",
"Prior market state not provided (trend_state_memory absent); state_change left as 'unchanged' to avoid implying a regime flip."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}