Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures (GC)
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-DATA-SPARSITY (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-28T08:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Gold futures are more likely to be rangebound than to sustain a directional move over the next 24h because the admitted gold-mapped news signals are too sparse and stale to support a fresh thesis. 55 flat fading 24h false 74
gold B-GOLD-002 Upside skew in gold remains possible if geopolitical-risk headlines re-accelerate, but the current admitted corpus does not contain enough fresh, gold-linked evidence to rate this as a high-probability near-term move. 40 up stable 6h false 74

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-03-28T08:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Gold futures (GC)", "market_code": "gold" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 34, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 12, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "gold", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "gold" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold futures are more likely to be rangebound than to sustain a directional move over the next 24h because the admitted gold-mapped news signals are too sparse and stale to support a fresh thesis.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "flat", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "data_sparsity_in_gold_mapped_signals", "stale_geopolitical_background_without_fresh_gold_specific_confirmation" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 32, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002", "market": "gold", "claim": "Upside skew in gold remains possible if geopolitical-risk headlines re-accelerate, but the current admitted corpus does not contain enough fresh, gold-linked evidence to rate this as a high-probability near-term move.", "probability_pct": 40, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_risk_optional_skew", "safe_haven_bid_dependency_on_fresh_escalation_signals" ], "contradicted_by": [ "insufficient_fresh_gold_linked_evidence_in_last_24h" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 12, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "gold", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "invalidated_stale", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 22, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 12, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "low", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-GOLD-001", "B-GOLD-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0, "D": 1, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 0, "mid_24_72h": 0, "stale_gt_72h": 1 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_id": "RF-DATA-SPARSITY", "market": "gold", "severity": "high", "description": "Gold-mapped admitted evidence is below threshold (min_evidence_threshold=3) and lacks fresh (<=24h) confirmation; direction suppressed to neutral_mixed." }, { "risk_id": "RF-STALE-CONTEXT-OVERHANG", "market": "gold", "severity": "medium", "description": "Most supportive context is >72h old; stale suppression applied and momentum marked weakening." }, { "risk_id": "RF-ECHO-RISK-SINGLETONS", "market": "gold", "severity": "medium", "description": "Gold-linked VIP evidence includes single-source / low-diversity items (higher fragility, lower authority confirmation)." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "gold", "confidence": "high", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Remain in non-directional posture until >=3 independent gold-mapped signals appear within 24h with improving source diversity or Tier-A confirmation." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if geopolitics-related items that explicitly reference gold/GC/XAU appear from >=2 independent sources within 6h." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) opposing macro/real-rates or USD-strength gold-linked signal arrives (2+ independent records), treat as late-breaking invalidation risk and re-score immediately." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "gold" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, 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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 0, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 0, "cross_domain_merges": 0, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": true, "notes": [ "Target market explicitly set to gold; analysis constrained to single_market.", "Most 5B trends are geopolitical but do not include explicit gold/XAU/bullion aliases; not force-mapped to gold per mapping constraints.", "Gold-linked VIP items are predominantly single-source and >72h old; stale suppression applied.", "Min evidence threshold not met for fresh gold-mapped direction (>=3); output held at neutral_mixed with elevated fragility." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }