Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-28 23:59 UTC
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gold | B-gold-001 | Gold futures have a mild upside bias over the next 24h from residual (but mostly stale) geopolitical-risk safe-haven framing; however the current cycle lacks fresh gold-specific confirmation (flows/real rates/USD), so the thesis is fragile. | 52 | up | fading | 24h | false | 68 |
| gold | B-gold-002 | Gold futures are more likely to be near-term rangebound in the next 6h due to insufficient fresh, gold-linked driver signals in the admitted set (real rates/USD/ETF flows not present in fresh window). | 57 | flat | stable | 6h | false | 68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_gold_2026-03-28T23:59:59Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T23:59:59Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures have a mild upside bias over the next 24h from residual (but mostly stale) geopolitical-risk safe-haven framing; however the current cycle lacks fresh gold-specific confirmation (flows/real rates/USD), so the thesis is fragile.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk (stale corpus)",
"gold trade/traceability disruption mention (single-source, stale)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"data_sparsity_last_24h",
"staleness_gt_72h_dominant"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-002",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures are more likely to be near-term rangebound in the next 6h due to insufficient fresh, gold-linked driver signals in the admitted set (real rates/USD/ETF flows not present in fresh window).",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"lack_of_fresh_driver_evidence"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"any_new_high-confidence_geopolitical_escalation_signal"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 44,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-gold-001",
"B-gold-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 50,
"B": 5,
"C": 0,
"D": 84,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 1,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 6
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "gold",
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Most gold-relevant support is older than 72h (primarily 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09), so it is treated as background only."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Last-24h admitted set contains at most a single low-materialisation risk marker; insufficient fresh driver breadth for directional conviction."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"flag": "narrative_persistence_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Geopolitical-risk framing persists in older corpus but is not freshly reaffirmed; directional inference is fragile."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Stay flat unless fresh gold-linked drivers arrive (real rates / USD impulse / ETF flow confirmation) within the next cycle.",
"action": "stay_flat"
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh, corroborated geopolitical escalation signal appears (2+ independent sources within 2h) then monitor for upside volatility response in gold.",
"action": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh counterevidence emerges (e.g., strong USD/real-rate rise signals) alongside falling geopolitical heat, then treat as reversal-risk confirmation against safe-haven support.",
"action": "reversal_watch"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:59:59Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T02:59:59Z",
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"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:59:59Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:59:59Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:59:59Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:59:59Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:59:59Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:59:59Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:59:59Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:59:59Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 8,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 4,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as 'gold'.",
"Most admitted supportive context is >72h old (mainly 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09), so stale suppression was applied and directional state is neutral_mixed.",
"State_change set to 'unchanged' because no prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory was provided (unknown_prior fallback)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}