Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-28 23:59 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-001 Gold futures have a mild upside bias over the next 24h from residual (but mostly stale) geopolitical-risk safe-haven framing; however the current cycle lacks fresh gold-specific confirmation (flows/real rates/USD), so the thesis is fragile. 52 up fading 24h false 68
gold B-gold-002 Gold futures are more likely to be near-term rangebound in the next 6h due to insufficient fresh, gold-linked driver signals in the admitted set (real rates/USD/ETF flows not present in fresh window). 57 flat stable 6h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_gold_2026-03-28T23:59:59Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T23:59:59Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures have a mild upside bias over the next 24h from residual (but mostly stale) geopolitical-risk safe-haven framing; however the current cycle lacks fresh gold-specific confirmation (flows/real rates/USD), so the thesis is fragile.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk (stale corpus)",
 "gold trade/traceability disruption mention (single-source, stale)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "data_sparsity_last_24h",
 "staleness_gt_72h_dominant"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures are more likely to be near-term rangebound in the next 6h due to insufficient fresh, gold-linked driver signals in the admitted set (real rates/USD/ETF flows not present in fresh window).",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "lack_of_fresh_driver_evidence"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "any_new_high-confidence_geopolitical_escalation_signal"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 44,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-gold-001",
 "B-gold-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 50,
 "B": 5,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 84,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 1,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 6
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Most gold-relevant support is older than 72h (primarily 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09), so it is treated as background only."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Last-24h admitted set contains at most a single low-materialisation risk marker; insufficient fresh driver breadth for directional conviction."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "flag": "narrative_persistence_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Geopolitical-risk framing persists in older corpus but is not freshly reaffirmed; directional inference is fragile."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Stay flat unless fresh gold-linked drivers arrive (real rates / USD impulse / ETF flow confirmation) within the next cycle.",
 "action": "stay_flat"
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh, corroborated geopolitical escalation signal appears (2+ independent sources within 2h) then monitor for upside volatility response in gold.",
 "action": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh counterevidence emerges (e.g., strong USD/real-rate rise signals) alongside falling geopolitical heat, then treat as reversal-risk confirmation against safe-haven support.",
 "action": "reversal_watch"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:59:59Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:59:59Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:59:59Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
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 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 8,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 4,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as 'gold'.",
 "Most admitted supportive context is >72h old (mainly 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09), so stale suppression was applied and directional state is neutral_mixed.",
 "State_change set to 'unchanged' because no prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory was provided (unknown_prior fallback)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}