Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-28T19:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-1 Near-term corpus leans to higher copper prices as energy-transition/grid/EV capex narratives remain supportive and have refreshed in the last 24h. 63 up accelerating 24h false 44
copper B-copper-2 Medium-term framing remains supply-tight: exploration scarcity and repeated deficit/supply-constraint framing supports upside bias even without immediate price catalysts. 60 up stable 24h false 44
copper B-copper-3 Trade-policy and strategic-minerals policy flow increases volatility risk; not yet showing as strong net bearish evidence, but elevates whipsaw potential. 55 mixed stable 6h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-20260328-copper-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term corpus leans to higher copper prices as energy-transition/grid/EV capex narratives remain supportive and have refreshed in the last 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "electric grid modernisation / EV charging build-out signals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Limited direct short-horizon inventory/exchange-stocks evidence in the admitted set"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Medium-term framing remains supply-tight: exploration scarcity and repeated deficit/supply-constraint framing supports upside bias even without immediate price catalysts.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "supply deficits / constrained new discoveries"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Expansion/production-growth project headlines can become a future supply-offset narrative"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy and strategic-minerals policy flow increases volatility risk; not yet showing as strong net bearish evidence, but elevates whipsaw potential.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "strategic minerals / tariff / cross-border policy signalling"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Most admitted items are directionally aligned (pro-demand / pro-tightness) rather than directly opposing"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-1",
 "B-copper-2",
 "B-copper-3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 12,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 24,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 2,
 "fresh_6_24h": 1,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 6
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-stale-context-overhang",
 "market": "copper",
 "label": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "A meaningful share of admitted support is thematic and >72h old (energy transition / structural deficit narratives); fresh items exist but near-term (6h) translation to price can be noisy."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-policy-whipsaw",
 "market": "copper",
 "label": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Trade-policy/strategic-minerals policy threads are present; can flip sentiment rapidly without warning even if not yet forming strong counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-inventory-sparsity",
 "market": "copper",
 "label": "data_sparsity_inventory_exchange_stocks",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Inventory/exchange-stocks arena is in the flight plan but is not strongly represented in the admitted directional evidence set for this snapshot."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh corroboration continues within the next 6\u201324h without a contradiction spike (e.g., new negative China-demand or inventory-build evidence)."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines accelerate (tariffs/export controls/anti-dumping measures) and raise contradiction ratio."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh bearish signals arrive within a 2h window (e.g., sharp demand-downgrade + inventory build), triggering the kill-switch sentinel."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional score falls back inside the neutral band (-20 to +20) due to fading fresh evidence and rising mixed signals."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided to 6B; state_change emitted as 'unchanged' with unknown_prior context.",
 "Directional bias is driven primarily by demand/supply narrative mass; short-horizon (6h) translation risk remains elevated due to limited direct inventory/exchange-stock evidence."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}