Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-28T19:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-1 |
Near-term corpus leans to higher copper prices as energy-transition/grid/EV capex narratives remain supportive and have refreshed in the last 24h. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
44 |
| copper |
B-copper-2 |
Medium-term framing remains supply-tight: exploration scarcity and repeated deficit/supply-constraint framing supports upside bias even without immediate price catalysts. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
44 |
| copper |
B-copper-3 |
Trade-policy and strategic-minerals policy flow increases volatility risk; not yet showing as strong net bearish evidence, but elevates whipsaw potential. |
55 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-20260328-copper-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-1",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term corpus leans to higher copper prices as energy-transition/grid/EV capex narratives remain supportive and have refreshed in the last 24h.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"electric grid modernisation / EV charging build-out signals"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Limited direct short-horizon inventory/exchange-stocks evidence in the admitted set"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-2",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Medium-term framing remains supply-tight: exploration scarcity and repeated deficit/supply-constraint framing supports upside bias even without immediate price catalysts.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"supply deficits / constrained new discoveries"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Expansion/production-growth project headlines can become a future supply-offset narrative"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-3",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy and strategic-minerals policy flow increases volatility risk; not yet showing as strong net bearish evidence, but elevates whipsaw potential.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"strategic minerals / tariff / cross-border policy signalling"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Most admitted items are directionally aligned (pro-demand / pro-tightness) rather than directly opposing"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-1",
"B-copper-2",
"B-copper-3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 12,
"B": 3,
"C": 1,
"D": 24,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 2,
"fresh_6_24h": 1,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 6
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-stale-context-overhang",
"market": "copper",
"label": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A meaningful share of admitted support is thematic and >72h old (energy transition / structural deficit narratives); fresh items exist but near-term (6h) translation to price can be noisy."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-policy-whipsaw",
"market": "copper",
"label": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Trade-policy/strategic-minerals policy threads are present; can flip sentiment rapidly without warning even if not yet forming strong counterevidence."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-inventory-sparsity",
"market": "copper",
"label": "data_sparsity_inventory_exchange_stocks",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Inventory/exchange-stocks arena is in the flight plan but is not strongly represented in the admitted directional evidence set for this snapshot."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh corroboration continues within the next 6\u201324h without a contradiction spike (e.g., new negative China-demand or inventory-build evidence)."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines accelerate (tariffs/export controls/anti-dumping measures) and raise contradiction ratio."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh bearish signals arrive within a 2h window (e.g., sharp demand-downgrade + inventory build), triggering the kill-switch sentinel."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score falls back inside the neutral band (-20 to +20) due to fading fresh evidence and rising mixed signals."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided to 6B; state_change emitted as 'unchanged' with unknown_prior context.",
"Directional bias is driven primarily by demand/supply narrative mass; short-horizon (6h) translation risk remains elevated due to limited direct inventory/exchange-stock evidence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}