- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: mixed_driver_crosscurrents
- generated_at: 2026-03-28T22:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Over the next 24h, coffee futures sentiment has an upside bias driven by demand/consumption narratives (market expansion + consumer behaviour) and supportive product/health framing. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
48 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Over the next 6–24h, downside/whipsaw risk is elevated because logistics/trade disruption narratives remain fresh and can quickly dominate risk-off positioning even if demand narratives stay constructive. |
42 |
down |
stable |
6h |
false |
48 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260328T223000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T22:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, coffee futures sentiment has an upside bias driven by demand/consumption narratives (market expansion + consumer behaviour) and supportive product/health framing.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends",
"consumer demand & market expansion (coffee)",
"consumer behaviour/digital ecosystems (beverages -> coffee demand spillover)",
"coffee: health and wellness (demand support framing)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"shipping_freight disruptions / port congestion",
"trade/logistics disruptions (Iran / Maersk)",
"USDA-related trade/production-cost impact narrative (incl. coffee trade participants)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 6\u201324h, downside/whipsaw risk is elevated because logistics/trade disruption narratives remain fresh and can quickly dominate risk-off positioning even if demand narratives stay constructive.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply (via trade-flow constraints)",
"macro/geopolitical logistics risk (Iran / Maersk / general port congestion)",
"policy/trade uncertainty (USDA-linked trade impacts)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"strong consumer/demand-facing narratives staying active in the latest window"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 95,
"B": 6,
"C": 5,
"D": 202,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 7,
"signals_6_24h": 0,
"signals_24_72h": 1,
"signals_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "mixed_driver_crosscurrents",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Constructive demand narratives coexist with fresh trade/logistics risk narratives; raises whipsaw probability."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "logistics_disruption_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Shipping/port congestion and trade-flow disruption themes remain fresh in the last 0\u20136h window."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "timeseries_bucket_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "24h timeseries is derived from trend-level timestamps (not per-record timestamps); bucket-level conviction is conservative."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh demand/consumption-confirmation remains dominant and no fresh opposing logistics/policy spike appears in the next 2\u20136h."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing logistics/trade signals cluster (2+ independent items inside 2h) and contradiction ratio rises materially."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If both bullish demand and bearish logistics narratives continue updating in the same short window (6h), increasing contradiction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T07:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": -35,
"velocity_score": -35,
"acceleration_score": -35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 75,
"acceleration_score": 110,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": -55,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 35,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 20,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to coffee.",
"Admitted signals prioritised items explicitly tagged to coffee plus shipping/trade logistics signals mapped via shipping_freight driver arena.",
"No prior state provided; state_change treated as new_bullish (unknown_prior baseline).",
"Timeseries uses trend-level last-update timestamps (per-record timestamps not available in provided payload); bucket conviction/fragility set conservatively."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}