• subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: mixed_driver_crosscurrents
  • generated_at: 2026-03-28T22:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Over the next 24h, coffee futures sentiment has an upside bias driven by demand/consumption narratives (market expansion + consumer behaviour) and supportive product/health framing. 58 up accelerating 24h false 48
coffee B-coffee-002 Over the next 6–24h, downside/whipsaw risk is elevated because logistics/trade disruption narratives remain fresh and can quickly dominate risk-off positioning even if demand narratives stay constructive. 42 down stable 6h false 48
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260328T223000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T22:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, coffee futures sentiment has an upside bias driven by demand/consumption narratives (market expansion + consumer behaviour) and supportive product/health framing.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends",
 "consumer demand & market expansion (coffee)",
 "consumer behaviour/digital ecosystems (beverages -> coffee demand spillover)",
 "coffee: health and wellness (demand support framing)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "shipping_freight disruptions / port congestion",
 "trade/logistics disruptions (Iran / Maersk)",
 "USDA-related trade/production-cost impact narrative (incl. coffee trade participants)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Over the next 6\u201324h, downside/whipsaw risk is elevated because logistics/trade disruption narratives remain fresh and can quickly dominate risk-off positioning even if demand narratives stay constructive.",
 "probability_pct": 42,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply (via trade-flow constraints)",
 "macro/geopolitical logistics risk (Iran / Maersk / general port congestion)",
 "policy/trade uncertainty (USDA-linked trade impacts)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "strong consumer/demand-facing narratives staying active in the latest window"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 95,
 "B": 6,
 "C": 5,
 "D": 202,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 7,
 "signals_6_24h": 0,
 "signals_24_72h": 1,
 "signals_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "mixed_driver_crosscurrents",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Constructive demand narratives coexist with fresh trade/logistics risk narratives; raises whipsaw probability."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "logistics_disruption_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Shipping/port congestion and trade-flow disruption themes remain fresh in the last 0\u20136h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "timeseries_bucket_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "24h timeseries is derived from trend-level timestamps (not per-record timestamps); bucket-level conviction is conservative."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh demand/consumption-confirmation remains dominant and no fresh opposing logistics/policy spike appears in the next 2\u20136h."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing logistics/trade signals cluster (2+ independent items inside 2h) and contradiction ratio rises materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If both bullish demand and bearish logistics narratives continue updating in the same short window (6h), increasing contradiction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T00:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T01:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T02:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T02:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T06:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T07:30:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T07:30:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T08:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T12:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T12:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T13:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T13:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T14:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": -35,
 "velocity_score": -35,
 "acceleration_score": -35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 75,
 "acceleration_score": 110,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 20,
 "acceleration_score": -55,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 35,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 20,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to coffee.",
 "Admitted signals prioritised items explicitly tagged to coffee plus shipping/trade logistics signals mapped via shipping_freight driver arena.",
 "No prior state provided; state_change treated as new_bullish (unknown_prior baseline).",
 "Timeseries uses trend-level last-update timestamps (per-record timestamps not available in provided payload); bucket conviction/fragility set conservatively."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}