Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_elevated
- generated_at: 2026-03-28 02:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-001 | Near-term coffee futures face mild downside pressure from origin supply/harvest-optimism, partially offset by demand growth. | 56 | down | stable | 24h | false | 68 |
| coffee | B-coffee-002 | Demand-side narratives provide a supportive floor, limiting sustained downside unless fresh supply confirmation accelerates. | 54 | up | fading | 24h | false | 68 |
| coffee | B-coffee-003 | Logistics/shipping disruption narratives increase near-term volatility risk and can produce sharp intraday swings without directional follow-through. | 63 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-20260328T020000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures face mild downside pressure from origin supply/harvest-optimism signals (bigger crop narrative), partially offset by demand/consumption-growth narratives.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"crop_conditions_disease",
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side narratives (coffee-shop expansion, product/consumer behaviour) provide a supportive floor, limiting sustained downside unless fresh supply confirmation accelerates.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Logistics/shipping disruption narratives increase near-term volatility risk for coffee flows and can produce sharp intraday swings without clean directional follow-through.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 58,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 58,
"B": 4,
"C": 10,
"D": 148,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 1,
"fresh_6_24h": 2,
"fresh_24_72h": 3,
"stale_over_72h": 2
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_elevated",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Supply/harvest-optimism vs demand-growth narratives both present; net directional score remains inside neutral band."
},
{
"flag": "volatility_risk_shipping_freight",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Logistics/shipping disruption narratives raise swing risk even when direction is neutral."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_price_linkage",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "This run is signal-only (no live price / no external pull). Direction remains conservative due to mixed drivers."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score remains between -20 and +20 and contradiction remains elevated."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh logistics disruption evidence increases (multiple independent records within 6h) without matching supply/demand confirmation."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more fresh (<=24h) coffee-specific supply confirmations or demand shocks push directional score beyond +/-20."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -9,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
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{
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"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -11,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -13,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 57,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 57,
"net_sentiment_score": -15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 57,
"net_sentiment_score": -15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -17,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 59,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 59,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['coffee']",
"Direction kept conservative (neutral band) due to mixed supply vs demand narratives and lack of clean coffee-specific dominant catalyst in the most recent window.",
"No late-breaking invalidation sentinel fired (no <=2h opposing cluster detected in provided inputs)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}