Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_elevated
  • generated_at: 2026-03-28 02:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term coffee futures face mild downside pressure from origin supply/harvest-optimism, partially offset by demand growth. 56 down stable 24h false 68
coffee B-coffee-002 Demand-side narratives provide a supportive floor, limiting sustained downside unless fresh supply confirmation accelerates. 54 up fading 24h false 68
coffee B-coffee-003 Logistics/shipping disruption narratives increase near-term volatility risk and can produce sharp intraday swings without directional follow-through. 63 mixed stable 6h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-20260328T020000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures face mild downside pressure from origin supply/harvest-optimism signals (bigger crop narrative), partially offset by demand/consumption-growth narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply",
 "crop_conditions_disease",
 "consumption_trends"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-002",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side narratives (coffee-shop expansion, product/consumer behaviour) provide a supportive floor, limiting sustained downside unless fresh supply confirmation accelerates.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Logistics/shipping disruption narratives increase near-term volatility risk for coffee flows and can produce sharp intraday swings without clean directional follow-through.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 58,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 58,
 "B": 4,
 "C": 10,
 "D": 148,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 1,
 "fresh_6_24h": 2,
 "fresh_24_72h": 3,
 "stale_over_72h": 2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_elevated",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Supply/harvest-optimism vs demand-growth narratives both present; net directional score remains inside neutral band."
 },
 {
 "flag": "volatility_risk_shipping_freight",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Logistics/shipping disruption narratives raise swing risk even when direction is neutral."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_price_linkage",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "This run is signal-only (no live price / no external pull). Direction remains conservative due to mixed drivers."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains between -20 and +20 and contradiction remains elevated."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh logistics disruption evidence increases (multiple independent records within 6h) without matching supply/demand confirmation."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more fresh (<=24h) coffee-specific supply confirmations or demand shocks push directional score beyond +/-20."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -7,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -7,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -9,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
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 },
 {
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
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 {
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 },
 {
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -13,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -16,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -17,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -17,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 59,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 59,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['coffee']",
 "Direction kept conservative (neutral band) due to mixed supply vs demand narratives and lack of clean coffee-specific dominant catalyst in the most recent window.",
 "No late-breaking invalidation sentinel fired (no <=2h opposing cluster detected in provided inputs)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}