Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-27 06:15 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-U-001 Near-term uranium futures sentiment is biased upward as pro-nuclear policy / reactor buildout narratives and fuel-cycle security concerns dominate the latest evidence. 64 up accelerating 6h false 44
uranium B-U-002 Over the next 24h, uranium futures sentiment remains constructive, supported by a broad multi-source narrative set around uranium mining activity, contracting/supply-chain risk, and continued nuclear-policy signalling. 68 up stable 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "cis-uranium-20260327T061500Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T06:15:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 77, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-U-001", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Near-term uranium futures sentiment is biased upward as pro-nuclear policy / reactor buildout narratives and fuel-cycle security concerns dominate the latest evidence.", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "reactor_demand", "nuclear_policy", "energy_security", "geopolitical_supply_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-U-002", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Over the next 24h, uranium futures sentiment remains constructive, supported by a broad multi-source narrative set around uranium mining activity, contracting/supply-chain risk, and continued nuclear-policy signalling.", "probability_pct": 68, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "uranium_supply_contracting", "geopolitical_supply_risk", "nuclear_innovation", "nuclear_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 79, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 83, "conviction_score_0_100": 77, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-U-001", "B-U-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 95, "B": 17, "C": 25, "D": 195, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "window_0_6h": { "signal_items": 1 }, "window_6_24h": { "signal_items": 3 }, "window_24_72h": { "signal_items": 6 }, "window_gt_72h": { "signal_items": 10 } } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "level": "medium", "details": "Some supply-chain / producer-risk evidence remains >72h old; current bullish view is not solely dependent on it, but it can amplify volatility if reactivated by fresh headlines." }, { "flag": "authority_gap_vs_mass", "level": "medium", "details": "Directional mass is broad, but the evidence mix contains a large Tier-D share; conviction is therefore more fragile to sudden high-authority counter-signals." }, { "flag": "single_source_vip_noise", "level": "low", "details": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source and treated as low-weight confirmatory colour only." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch only while net directional score stays >= +20 and no fresh (<=24h), independent bearish counter-evidence appears." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if fresh geopolitical supply-risk headlines cluster within a 2h window (possible gap-risk despite bullish bias)." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if 2+ independent opposing signals arrive within <=2h AND contradiction ratio rises materially versus the prior 6h." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 49, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 49, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 51, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 51, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 38, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 56, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 56, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 37, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 73, "fragility_score_0_100": 38, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 73, "fragility_score_0_100": 38, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 73, "fragility_score_0_100": 38, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 56, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 5, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 9, "cross_domain_merges": 4, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Timestamp anchored to latest available evidence in the provided corpus; no external/news pull performed.", "No explicit opposing (bearish) uranium evidence objects were present in admitted trend/vip/risk sets; counterevidence score treated as low.", "Prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory not provided; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' (unknown_prior).", "Some trends were not admitted due to weak/ambiguous linkage to the uranium market alias mapping in this workflow run." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }