Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_rate_headwind_counterevidence (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-27 20:15 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-silver-1 |
Next 6h: silver futures show a net upward bias, led by fresh silver-ETF flow chatter and supply/exploration narrative persistence, with geopolitical/safe-haven spillover supportive. |
61 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
44 |
| silver |
B-silver-2 |
Next 24h: silver futures remain mildly biased higher, but gains are more vulnerable to macro rates/real-yield repricing than the 6h horizon. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
44 |
| silver |
B-silver-3 |
Counter-thesis: renewed hawkish re-pricing (Fed/Powell/FedWatch-style rate-expectation signals) can cap or reverse silver over the next 6–24h. |
43 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-silver-2026-03-27T20:15:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T20:15:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-1",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Next 6h: silver futures show a net upward bias, led by fresh silver-ETF flow chatter and supply/exploration narrative persistence, with geopolitical/safe-haven spillover supportive.",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"investment_flows",
"mine_supply",
"industrial_demand",
"geopolitical_risk_spillover"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-silver-3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-2",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Next 24h: silver futures remain mildly biased higher, but gains are more vulnerable to macro rates/real-yield repricing than the 6h horizon.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"investment_flows",
"monetary_policy",
"real_rates",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-silver-3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-3",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Counter-thesis: renewed hawkish re-pricing (Fed/Powell/FedWatch-style rate-expectation signals) can cap or reverse silver over the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 43,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"real_rates",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-silver-1",
"B-silver-2"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-silver-1",
"B-silver-2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 197,
"B": 16,
"C": 11,
"D": 198,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 7,
"fresh_6_24h": 2,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_rate_headwind_counterevidence",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Rate-expectations tracks (Powell/FedWatch-style signals) provide genuine opposing pressure even though they are not late-breaking (<2h)."
},
{
"flag": "vip_single_source_noise",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Multiple single-source mining/company VIP items increase narrative noise; treated as low-weight unless corroborated."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share_in_supply_exploration_stream",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Supply/exploration narrative shows broad pickup but a high low-tier share; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and no fresh (<2h) opposing macro-rate shock appears."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh rate-expectation headlines cluster (2+ independent opposing signals in <=2h) and directional_score_signed falls toward +10 or lower."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.20 alongside rapid sentiment bucket swings."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T20:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T21:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T21:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T22:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T22:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T23:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:15:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:15:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:15:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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"velocity_score": 1,
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:15:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:15:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T16:15:00Z",
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
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"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T20:15:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": true,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T14:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:45:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T15:15:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T15:45:00Z",
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"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T16:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T16:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
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"acceleration_score": -5,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T16:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T17:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T17:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T20:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: silver only.",
"No per-record physics/time-bin counts available in gated input; timeseries buckets derived conservatively from trend-level timestamps and polarity only.",
"No explicit contradiction objects present; opposition handled as counterevidence from rate-expectations tracks."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}