Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_rate_headwind_counterevidence (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-27 20:15 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-silver-1 Next 6h: silver futures show a net upward bias, led by fresh silver-ETF flow chatter and supply/exploration narrative persistence, with geopolitical/safe-haven spillover supportive. 61 up accelerating 6h false 44
silver B-silver-2 Next 24h: silver futures remain mildly biased higher, but gains are more vulnerable to macro rates/real-yield repricing than the 6h horizon. 58 up stable 24h false 44
silver B-silver-3 Counter-thesis: renewed hawkish re-pricing (Fed/Powell/FedWatch-style rate-expectation signals) can cap or reverse silver over the next 6–24h. 43 down fading 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-silver-2026-03-27T20:15:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T20:15:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-1",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Next 6h: silver futures show a net upward bias, led by fresh silver-ETF flow chatter and supply/exploration narrative persistence, with geopolitical/safe-haven spillover supportive.",
 "probability_pct": 61,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "investment_flows",
 "mine_supply",
 "industrial_demand",
 "geopolitical_risk_spillover"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-silver-3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-2",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Next 24h: silver futures remain mildly biased higher, but gains are more vulnerable to macro rates/real-yield repricing than the 6h horizon.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "investment_flows",
 "monetary_policy",
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-silver-3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-3",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Counter-thesis: renewed hawkish re-pricing (Fed/Powell/FedWatch-style rate-expectation signals) can cap or reverse silver over the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 43,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary_policy",
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-silver-1",
 "B-silver-2"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-silver-1",
 "B-silver-2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 197,
 "B": 16,
 "C": 11,
 "D": 198,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 7,
 "fresh_6_24h": 2,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_rate_headwind_counterevidence",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Rate-expectations tracks (Powell/FedWatch-style signals) provide genuine opposing pressure even though they are not late-breaking (<2h)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "vip_single_source_noise",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Multiple single-source mining/company VIP items increase narrative noise; treated as low-weight unless corroborated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_in_supply_exploration_stream",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Supply/exploration narrative shows broad pickup but a high low-tier share; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and no fresh (<2h) opposing macro-rate shock appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh rate-expectation headlines cluster (2+ independent opposing signals in <=2h) and directional_score_signed falls toward +10 or lower."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.20 alongside rapid sentiment bucket swings."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": true,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": [
 {
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 },
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T17:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T20:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: silver only.",
 "No per-record physics/time-bin counts available in gated input; timeseries buckets derived conservatively from trend-level timestamps and polarity only.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects present; opposition handled as counterevidence from rate-expectations tracks."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}