Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: natural_gas
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: driver_coverage_gap_weather_storage
  • generated_at: 2026-03-27T18:50:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-01 Elevated LNG supply-chain and geopolitical disruption risk is creating upside tail-risk (and higher volatility) for natural gas futures over the next 24h, but the net directional edge remains modest. 58 up fading 24h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-02 Because the admitted corpus is dominated by event-driven LNG/geopolitical narratives (with limited direct weather-demand or storage-level signal), near-term price direction is likely mixed/rangebound rather than trending. 55 mixed stable 6h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260327T185000Z-natural_gas",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T18:50:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-01",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Elevated LNG supply-chain and geopolitical disruption risk is creating upside tail-risk (and higher volatility) for natural gas futures over the next 24h, but the net directional edge remains modest.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "lng_export_flows",
 "pipeline_infrastructure",
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "production_outages"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "driver_coverage_gap_weather_storage",
 "headline_deescalation_risk"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-02",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Because the admitted corpus is dominated by event-driven LNG/geopolitical narratives (with limited direct weather-demand or storage-level signal), near-term price direction is likely mixed/rangebound rather than trending.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "seasonal_weather_demand",
 "storage_levels",
 "lng_export_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "fresh_lng_disruption_escalation"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 62,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-01",
 "B-NG-02"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 18,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 28,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h": 4,
 "stale_24_72h": 2,
 "stale_72h_plus": 2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "driver_coverage_gap_weather_storage",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "details": "Admitted signals are heavily LNG/geopolitics-weighted; limited direct weather-demand and EIA/storage confirmation in the provided corpus."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "details": "Event-driven geopolitical and supply-disruption narratives can reverse quickly on de-escalation headlines."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "details": "Portions of the supporting narrative set originate >72h ago and were downweighted."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral posture while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 and driver coverage stays LNG/geopolitics-dominant."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility monitoring if fresh LNG supply-disruption headlines cluster within a 2\u20136h window (evidence count rises) without offsetting de-escalation."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Upgrade reversal watch if fresh counter-narratives appear (e.g., confirmed resolution/restoration of LNG throughput) and contradiction_ratio rises materially."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 10,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -13,
 "acceleration_score": -25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 28,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 4,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 13,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 2,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code = natural_gas.",
 "Directional interpretation is constrained by limited direct weather-demand/storage-level signals in the admitted corpus; event-driven LNG/geopolitics dominates.",
 "No explicit contradictory trend set provided; reversal risk elevated mainly due to headline sensitivity and mixed/indirect driver mapping."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}