Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: natural_gas
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: driver_coverage_gap_weather_storage
- generated_at: 2026-03-27T18:50:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-01 | Elevated LNG supply-chain and geopolitical disruption risk is creating upside tail-risk (and higher volatility) for natural gas futures over the next 24h, but the net directional edge remains modest. | 58 | up | fading | 24h | false | 62 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-02 | Because the admitted corpus is dominated by event-driven LNG/geopolitical narratives (with limited direct weather-demand or storage-level signal), near-term price direction is likely mixed/rangebound rather than trending. | 55 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260327T185000Z-natural_gas",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T18:50:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-01",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Elevated LNG supply-chain and geopolitical disruption risk is creating upside tail-risk (and higher volatility) for natural gas futures over the next 24h, but the net directional edge remains modest.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"energy_geopolitics",
"production_outages"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"driver_coverage_gap_weather_storage",
"headline_deescalation_risk"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-02",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Because the admitted corpus is dominated by event-driven LNG/geopolitical narratives (with limited direct weather-demand or storage-level signal), near-term price direction is likely mixed/rangebound rather than trending.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"seasonal_weather_demand",
"storage_levels",
"lng_export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"fresh_lng_disruption_escalation"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 62,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-01",
"B-NG-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 18,
"B": 2,
"C": 0,
"D": 28,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 3,
"fresh_6_24h": 4,
"stale_24_72h": 2,
"stale_72h_plus": 2
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "driver_coverage_gap_weather_storage",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "natural_gas",
"details": "Admitted signals are heavily LNG/geopolitics-weighted; limited direct weather-demand and EIA/storage confirmation in the provided corpus."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "natural_gas",
"details": "Event-driven geopolitical and supply-disruption narratives can reverse quickly on de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"market": "natural_gas",
"details": "Portions of the supporting narrative set originate >72h ago and were downweighted."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral posture while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 and driver coverage stays LNG/geopolitics-dominant."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility monitoring if fresh LNG supply-disruption headlines cluster within a 2\u20136h window (evidence count rises) without offsetting de-escalation."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade reversal watch if fresh counter-narratives appear (e.g., confirmed resolution/restoration of LNG throughput) and contradiction_ratio rises materially."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -13,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 28,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 4,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 13,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 2,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code = natural_gas.",
"Directional interpretation is constrained by limited direct weather-demand/storage-level signals in the admitted corpus; event-driven LNG/geopolitics dominates.",
"No explicit contradictory trend set provided; reversal risk elevated mainly due to headline sensitivity and mixed/indirect driver mapping."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}