• subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_geopolitical_premium
  • generated_at: 2026-03-27T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term natural gas futures face upward pressure from LNG supply disruption / shipping-lane risk signals (Qatar/Ras Laffan + broader transit risk), supporting a risk-premium bid. 62 up accelerating 6h false 54
natural_gas B-NG-002 Over the next 24h, geopolitical escalation signals remain a supportive backdrop for gas/LNG risk premium (with spillover into US LNG pull), keeping net bias upward unless de-escalation headlines dominate. 58 up stable 24h false 54
natural_gas B-NG-003 Demand-side/demand-dynamics narratives add downside/mean-reversion risk, potentially capping upside moves despite supply-risk headlines. 45 mixed accelerating 24h false 54
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis6b_natural_gas_20260327T070000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term natural gas futures face upward pressure from LNG supply disruption / shipping-lane risk signals (Qatar/Ras Laffan + broader transit risk), supporting a risk-premium bid.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "LNG export disruption / supply disruption narratives (Qatar/Ras Laffan)",
 "Energy shipping / infrastructure security risk signals",
 "Broad multi-source geopolitical escalation coverage"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, geopolitical escalation signals remain a supportive backdrop for gas/LNG risk premium (with spillover into US LNG pull), keeping net bias upward unless de-escalation headlines dominate.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Middle East / infrastructure-security escalation narratives",
 "Multiple Tier-A source anchors across the admitted trend set"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Demand-side/demand-dynamics narratives add downside/mean-reversion risk, potentially capping upside moves despite supply-risk headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 45,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Demand dynamics trend showing late-cycle attention spike",
 "Single-source inventory/storage-related VIP items (low weight, echo-risk flagged)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002",
 "B-NG-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 207,
 "B": 22,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 339,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 12,
 "signals_6_24h": 0,
 "signals_24_72h": 0,
 "signals_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "event_driven_geopolitical_premium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Directional support is strongly event-driven; de-escalation headlines could compress risk premium quickly."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "mixed_driver_stack_demand_vs_supply_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Supply/LNG-risk signals are broadly supportive, while demand-dynamics signals introduce counter-pressure."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "echo_risk_vip_singletons_present",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "VIP outliers include multiple single-source items; treated as low-weight and fragility-increasing."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh escalation / disruption confirmations persist across multiple independent sources in the next 6h, maintain watch_long_bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If demand-dynamics counter-signal accelerates (more independent records within 6h) or de-escalation headlines cluster, shift to reversal_watch / stay_flat."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction appears (credible opposing evidence within <=2h), elevate to hard_de_risk_watch."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 9,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 14,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 88,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 13,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 14,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 14,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -2,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in input; used evidence_recency_proxy + temporal_profile for recency weighting and momentum inference.",
 "State-change derived with no reliable prior state available; treated as neutral baseline -> new_bullish."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}