- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_geopolitical_premium
- generated_at: 2026-03-27T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term natural gas futures face upward pressure from LNG supply disruption / shipping-lane risk signals (Qatar/Ras Laffan + broader transit risk), supporting a risk-premium bid. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
54 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Over the next 24h, geopolitical escalation signals remain a supportive backdrop for gas/LNG risk premium (with spillover into US LNG pull), keeping net bias upward unless de-escalation headlines dominate. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
54 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Demand-side/demand-dynamics narratives add downside/mean-reversion risk, potentially capping upside moves despite supply-risk headlines. |
45 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
54 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis6b_natural_gas_20260327T070000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term natural gas futures face upward pressure from LNG supply disruption / shipping-lane risk signals (Qatar/Ras Laffan + broader transit risk), supporting a risk-premium bid.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"LNG export disruption / supply disruption narratives (Qatar/Ras Laffan)",
"Energy shipping / infrastructure security risk signals",
"Broad multi-source geopolitical escalation coverage"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, geopolitical escalation signals remain a supportive backdrop for gas/LNG risk premium (with spillover into US LNG pull), keeping net bias upward unless de-escalation headlines dominate.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Middle East / infrastructure-security escalation narratives",
"Multiple Tier-A source anchors across the admitted trend set"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Demand-side/demand-dynamics narratives add downside/mean-reversion risk, potentially capping upside moves despite supply-risk headlines.",
"probability_pct": 45,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Demand dynamics trend showing late-cycle attention spike",
"Single-source inventory/storage-related VIP items (low weight, echo-risk flagged)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 207,
"B": 22,
"C": 1,
"D": 339,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 12,
"signals_6_24h": 0,
"signals_24_72h": 0,
"signals_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "event_driven_geopolitical_premium",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Directional support is strongly event-driven; de-escalation headlines could compress risk premium quickly."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "mixed_driver_stack_demand_vs_supply_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Supply/LNG-risk signals are broadly supportive, while demand-dynamics signals introduce counter-pressure."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "echo_risk_vip_singletons_present",
"severity": "low",
"note": "VIP outliers include multiple single-source items; treated as low-weight and fragility-increasing."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh escalation / disruption confirmations persist across multiple independent sources in the next 6h, maintain watch_long_bias."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If demand-dynamics counter-signal accelerates (more independent records within 6h) or de-escalation headlines cluster, shift to reversal_watch / stay_flat."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction appears (credible opposing evidence within <=2h), elevate to hard_de_risk_watch."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 14,
"fragility_score_0_100": 88,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 13,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 14,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 14,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -2,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in input; used evidence_recency_proxy + temporal_profile for recency weighting and momentum inference.",
"State-change derived with no reliable prior state available; treated as neutral baseline -> new_bullish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}