Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: cross_driver_contradiction (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-27T23:59:59Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-1 |
Near-term lithium futures sentiment is supported by EV adoption and battery capacity/chemistry headlines, implying modest upside bias over the next 6h–24h. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
55 |
| lithium |
B-LI-2 |
Medium-term upside is more fragile because mining/refining expansion and extraction technology progress can reduce scarcity, offsetting demand-driven bullishness. |
54 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
55 |
| lithium |
B-LI-3 |
Short-term reversal risk is elevated to medium because the same news flow contains both demand-boosting and supply-easing components, increasing whipsaw risk. |
57 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260327-lithium-0001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T23:59:59Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-1",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment is supported by EV adoption and battery capacity/chemistry headlines, implying modest upside bias over the next 6h\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption/penetration narrative breadth (multi-source)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion headlines",
"Battery chemistry progress narratives (supports downstream demand expectations)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Supply-side expansion/extraction narratives that can cap price upside"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-2",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Medium-term upside is more fragile because mining/refining expansion and extraction technology progress can reduce scarcity, offsetting demand-driven bullishness.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Lithium mining supply expansion / project flow",
"Refining/extraction technology improvements (e.g., DLE narratives)",
"Producer/major miner activity headlines"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Strong, broad EV demand acceleration signals (if they dominate fresh flow)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-3",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Short-term reversal risk is elevated to medium because the same news flow contains both demand-boosting and supply-easing components, increasing whipsaw risk.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Cross-driver contradiction (demand up vs supply easing)",
"Policy/regulatory headline noise in the EV/battery supply chain orbit"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"A clear, fresh, one-direction consensus cluster (either demand shock or supply shock) emerging in the last 2h\u20136h"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-1",
"B-LI-2",
"B-LI-3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 80,
"B": 6,
"C": 20,
"D": 150,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 2,
"fresh_6_24h": 5,
"stale_24_72h": 1,
"stale_gt_72h": 3
},
"actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 35,
"directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 24
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "cross_driver_contradiction",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Demand-supportive EV/battery headlines coexist with supply-expansion/extraction-tech narratives that can cap upside."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Mixed driver set increases short-horizon reversals even without explicit bearish evidence clusters."
},
{
"flag": "authority_skew_low_tier_share",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Broad coverage exists, but a meaningful share is lower-tier; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_in_last_2h",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "No clear, high-trust opposing cluster detected in the last ~2 hours; kill-switch not triggered."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with fresh (<=6h) supportive updates and contradiction ratio does not rise materially."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent, fresh (<=2h) supply-easing or demand-negative signals appear and net directional score drops below +10."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.40 while fresh evidence count increases (headline churn)."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls into (-20,+20) range with weakening momentum and no fresh confirmation."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 24,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.",
"No explicit contradictions list provided upstream; contradiction_ratio estimated from mixed driver composition (demand vs supply narratives).",
"No prior market state memory available in provided input; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}