Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: cross_driver_contradiction (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-27T23:59:59Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-1 Near-term lithium futures sentiment is supported by EV adoption and battery capacity/chemistry headlines, implying modest upside bias over the next 6h–24h. 58 up stable 24h false 55
lithium B-LI-2 Medium-term upside is more fragile because mining/refining expansion and extraction technology progress can reduce scarcity, offsetting demand-driven bullishness. 54 mixed stable 24h false 55
lithium B-LI-3 Short-term reversal risk is elevated to medium because the same news flow contains both demand-boosting and supply-easing components, increasing whipsaw risk. 57 mixed accelerating 6h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260327-lithium-0001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T23:59:59Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-1",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment is supported by EV adoption and battery capacity/chemistry headlines, implying modest upside bias over the next 6h\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption/penetration narrative breadth (multi-source)",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion headlines",
 "Battery chemistry progress narratives (supports downstream demand expectations)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Supply-side expansion/extraction narratives that can cap price upside"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-2",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Medium-term upside is more fragile because mining/refining expansion and extraction technology progress can reduce scarcity, offsetting demand-driven bullishness.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Lithium mining supply expansion / project flow",
 "Refining/extraction technology improvements (e.g., DLE narratives)",
 "Producer/major miner activity headlines"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Strong, broad EV demand acceleration signals (if they dominate fresh flow)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-3",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Short-term reversal risk is elevated to medium because the same news flow contains both demand-boosting and supply-easing components, increasing whipsaw risk.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Cross-driver contradiction (demand up vs supply easing)",
 "Policy/regulatory headline noise in the EV/battery supply chain orbit"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "A clear, fresh, one-direction consensus cluster (either demand shock or supply shock) emerging in the last 2h\u20136h"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-1",
 "B-LI-2",
 "B-LI-3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 80,
 "B": 6,
 "C": 20,
 "D": 150,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 2,
 "fresh_6_24h": 5,
 "stale_24_72h": 1,
 "stale_gt_72h": 3
 },
 "actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 35,
 "directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 24
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "cross_driver_contradiction",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Demand-supportive EV/battery headlines coexist with supply-expansion/extraction-tech narratives that can cap upside."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Mixed driver set increases short-horizon reversals even without explicit bearish evidence clusters."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_skew_low_tier_share",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Broad coverage exists, but a meaningful share is lower-tier; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_in_last_2h",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "No clear, high-trust opposing cluster detected in the last ~2 hours; kill-switch not triggered."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with fresh (<=6h) supportive updates and contradiction ratio does not rise materially."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent, fresh (<=2h) supply-easing or demand-negative signals appear and net directional score drops below +10."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.40 while fresh evidence count increases (headline churn)."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score falls into (-20,+20) range with weakening momentum and no fresh confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 8,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 14,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 10,
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 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
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 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 18,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "directional_score_signed": 16,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 24,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.",
 "No explicit contradictions list provided upstream; contradiction_ratio estimated from mixed driver composition (demand vs supply narratives).",
 "No prior market state memory available in provided input; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}