• subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-27 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-24H-UP-01 Lithium futures have a modest upward bias over the next 24h as EV adoption and battery capacity expansion narratives remain supportive of demand expectations. 56 up fading 24h false 58
lithium B-LI-6H-FLAT-01 Over the next 6h, lithium futures are more likely to be rangebound because supportive demand narratives are offset by supply expansion/industrial scaling themes and limited truly new price-specific catalysts in the immediate window. 55 flat stable 6h false 58
lithium B-LI-24H-MIX-02 Net lithium price direction is mixed because supply expansion/extraction and industrial scaling themes can materially offset demand-optimism narratives, increasing the chance of choppy trade rather than clean trend. 44 mixed accelerating 24h false 58
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis-lithium-20260327T120000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-24H-UP-01",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Lithium futures have a modest upward bias over the next 24h as EV adoption and battery capacity expansion narratives remain supportive of demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption / demand pull-through (Tesla/auto OEM adoption themes)",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity buildout (OEM + supply chain expansion)",
 "Battery chemistry advances narrative supporting continued deployment"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-24H-MIX-02",
 "Supply-side expansion headlines (producer expansion/extraction projects) potentially capping upside"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-6H-FLAT-01",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, lithium futures are more likely to be rangebound because supportive demand narratives are offset by supply expansion/industrial scaling themes and limited truly new price-specific catalysts in the immediate window.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Background-persistent EV/battery narrative (not a single decisive fresh catalyst)",
 "Mixed push-pull between demand optimism and supply scaling"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-24H-UP-01"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-24H-MIX-02",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Net lithium price direction is mixed because supply expansion/extraction and industrial scaling themes can materially offset demand-optimism narratives, increasing the chance of choppy trade rather than clean trend.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Supply expansion / extraction project flow (producer-side)",
 "Policy/regulatory uncertainty and trade-friction risk in adjacent EV supply chain nodes"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-24H-UP-01"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-24H-UP-01",
 "B-LI-6H-FLAT-01",
 "B-LI-24H-MIX-02"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 20,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 42,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 1,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 8,
 "fresh_24_72h_est": 2,
 "stale_gt_72h_est": 8
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Many supporting themes are sustained/slow-burn; short-horizon directional clarity is capped."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_push_pull",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Demand-optimism (EV adoption/capacity build) is offset by supply scaling/extraction expansion themes."
 },
 {
 "flag": "recency_flip_watch",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "A very recent risk/anomaly seed in the last 24h adds short-term uncertainty; monitor for corroboration."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "stay_flat while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 and contradiction_ratio stays elevated (>0.35) in the most recent buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if a fresh catalyst cluster appears (>=3 independent fresh items within 6h) or if directional_score_signed moves beyond +/-20."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if a fresh opposing cluster emerges within 2h (>=2 independent opposing signals) causing contradiction_ratio to spike and net sentiment to cross below 0."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "acceleration_score": -7,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "acceleration_score": -3,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
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 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "acceleration_score": 7,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 22,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 25,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change set to 'unchanged' as a non-committal default.",
 "Directional clarity for lithium price is capped because admitted corpus is dominated by thematic EV/battery narratives rather than direct price/physical-balance shocks in the immediate horizon."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}