- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-27 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-24H-UP-01 |
Lithium futures have a modest upward bias over the next 24h as EV adoption and battery capacity expansion narratives remain supportive of demand expectations. |
56 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
58 |
| lithium |
B-LI-6H-FLAT-01 |
Over the next 6h, lithium futures are more likely to be rangebound because supportive demand narratives are offset by supply expansion/industrial scaling themes and limited truly new price-specific catalysts in the immediate window. |
55 |
flat |
stable |
6h |
false |
58 |
| lithium |
B-LI-24H-MIX-02 |
Net lithium price direction is mixed because supply expansion/extraction and industrial scaling themes can materially offset demand-optimism narratives, increasing the chance of choppy trade rather than clean trend. |
44 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis-lithium-20260327T120000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-24H-UP-01",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Lithium futures have a modest upward bias over the next 24h as EV adoption and battery capacity expansion narratives remain supportive of demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption / demand pull-through (Tesla/auto OEM adoption themes)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity buildout (OEM + supply chain expansion)",
"Battery chemistry advances narrative supporting continued deployment"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-24H-MIX-02",
"Supply-side expansion headlines (producer expansion/extraction projects) potentially capping upside"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-6H-FLAT-01",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, lithium futures are more likely to be rangebound because supportive demand narratives are offset by supply expansion/industrial scaling themes and limited truly new price-specific catalysts in the immediate window.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Background-persistent EV/battery narrative (not a single decisive fresh catalyst)",
"Mixed push-pull between demand optimism and supply scaling"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-24H-UP-01"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-24H-MIX-02",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Net lithium price direction is mixed because supply expansion/extraction and industrial scaling themes can materially offset demand-optimism narratives, increasing the chance of choppy trade rather than clean trend.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Supply expansion / extraction project flow (producer-side)",
"Policy/regulatory uncertainty and trade-friction risk in adjacent EV supply chain nodes"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-24H-UP-01"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-24H-UP-01",
"B-LI-6H-FLAT-01",
"B-LI-24H-MIX-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 20,
"B": 2,
"C": 6,
"D": 42,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 1,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 8,
"fresh_24_72h_est": 2,
"stale_gt_72h_est": 8
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Many supporting themes are sustained/slow-burn; short-horizon directional clarity is capped."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_push_pull",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Demand-optimism (EV adoption/capacity build) is offset by supply scaling/extraction expansion themes."
},
{
"flag": "recency_flip_watch",
"severity": "low",
"details": "A very recent risk/anomaly seed in the last 24h adds short-term uncertainty; monitor for corroboration."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "stay_flat while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 and contradiction_ratio stays elevated (>0.35) in the most recent buckets."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if a fresh catalyst cluster appears (>=3 independent fresh items within 6h) or if directional_score_signed moves beyond +/-20."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if a fresh opposing cluster emerges within 2h (>=2 independent opposing signals) causing contradiction_ratio to spike and net sentiment to cross below 0."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 22,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 25,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change set to 'unchanged' as a non-committal default.",
"Directional clarity for lithium price is capped because admitted corpus is dominated by thematic EV/battery narratives rather than direct price/physical-balance shocks in the immediate horizon."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}