Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: gold
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (severity: high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-27 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Recent geopolitics-risk headlines marginally increase safe-haven demand bias for gold, but current-cycle evidence is thin. 55 up fading 24h false 78
gold B-GOLD-002 Rates/yields policy backdrop remains a plausible headwind for gold, limiting upside follow-through without fresh confirmation. 52 down stable 24h false 78
gold B-GOLD-003 Physical/traceability disruption chatter is present but uncorroborated; impact on gold pricing is unclear near-term. 40 mixed fading 6h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260327T120000Z-gold-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Recent geopolitics-risk headlines marginally increase safe-haven demand bias for gold, but current-cycle evidence is thin.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-GOLD-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Rates/yields policy backdrop remains a plausible headwind for gold, limiting upside follow-through without fresh confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "central_bank_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-GOLD-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-003",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Physical/traceability disruption chatter is present but uncorroborated; impact on gold pricing is unclear near-term.",
 "probability_pct": 40,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "physical_gold_demand",
 "supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 25,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 52,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-001",
 "B-GOLD-002",
 "B-GOLD-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 6,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 2,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "bucket_0_6h": 1,
 "bucket_6_24h": 0,
 "bucket_24_72h": 0,
 "bucket_gt_72h": 14
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Most admitted directional drivers are >72h old; current-cycle confirmation is sparse."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Limited fresh evidence across real_rates/usd_strength/flows; signal is primarily background."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Geopolitics-risk vs rates-headwind framing can flip quickly; maintain caution until fresh corroboration."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain flat while directional_state=neutral_mixed and freshness_confidence=low."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility_watch if fresh geopolitics signals expand to 3+ independent records within 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal_watch if fresh rates/yields tightening evidence appears (2+ independent records within 2h) creating a contradiction spike."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Only consider long-bias watch if fresh safe-haven drivers persist for 6h+ and contradiction remains low."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 21,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 12,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory provided; state_change set using unknown_prior fallback.",
 "Directional interpretation degraded primarily by staleness (>72h) of most admitted drivers; fresh confirmation sparse vs min_evidence_threshold=3 for current-cycle conviction.",
 "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel did not trigger (no fresh, multi-source opposing evidence within 2h)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}