Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: policy_headline_whipsaw_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-01 Near-term copper sentiment skews upward as late-surge narratives around infrastructure buildout and grid/energy-transition capex dominate recent signals. 62 up accelerating 6h false 44
copper B-copper-02 Copper sentiment remains supported over the next day by demand-side (energy transition, industrial activity) and supply-chain disruption framing; net bullish bias. 60 up stable 24h false 44
copper B-copper-03 Reversal sensitivity is elevated due to trade-policy and strategic-mineral policy narratives that can quickly introduce opposing price pressure. 52 mixed stable 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-copper-20260327T030000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures (HG)",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-01",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper sentiment skews upward as late-surge narratives around infrastructure buildout and grid/energy-transition capex dominate the most recent signal window.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "infrastructure development / capex demand",
 "electric grid modernisation / energy-transition demand",
 "broad multi-source reinforcement with very recent updates"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Policy/trade headlines can flip risk appetite rapidly (not observed as direct counterevidence in this corpus slice)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-02",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper sentiment remains supported over the next day by a mix of demand-side (energy transition, industrial activity framing) and supply-chain disruption framing, yielding a net bullish bias rather than a one-off spike.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy-transition framing (IEA and grid buildout narratives)",
 "large producer/miner adjacency (Rio Tinto, BHP, Freeport-McMoRan)",
 "supply-chain disruption framing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Trade-policy uncertainty as a potential demand drag (no explicit opposing evidence records admitted)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-03",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Reversal sensitivity is elevated (but not triggered) because trade-policy narratives and strategic-mineral policy framing are present and can quickly introduce opposing price pressure without much lead time.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "U.S. trade/strategic mineral policy narratives",
 "Trump/trade-policy headline sensitivity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No fresh opposing-direction evidence mass detected inside the last ~2 hours"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-01",
 "B-copper-02",
 "B-copper-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 36,
 "B": 8,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 67,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Approximate (summed from the 3 most recent/high-heat admitted trends' authority_tier_counts; overlaps possible)."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_with_updates_0_6h": 2,
 "signals_with_updates_6_24h": 7,
 "signals_with_updates_24_72h": 3,
 "signals_with_updates_gt_72h": 0,
 "note": "Signal-level freshness inferred from each admitted trend's newest_timestamp proxy."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Trade-policy / strategic-minerals policy narratives are present; they can introduce rapid counterpressure even when the current corpus lacks explicit opposing evidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_skews_lower_tier",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad, but a material share of evidence is Tier-D; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If next-cycle evidence maintains bullish directional score >= +40 with no fresh opposing cluster in the last 2h, keep a long-bias watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing-direction signals appear from 2+ independent records within a 2h window (or a single hard structural invalidator), switch to reversal_watch / hard_de_risk_watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional score compresses into [-20,+20] alongside declining freshness, prefer stay_flat (rangebound drift)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit trend_physics / trend_state_memory v2 fields present in inputs; used evidence_recency_proxy + temporal_profile heuristics for recency/momentum.",
 "No contradictions array entries provided; actual_counterevidence_score treated as low due to absence of admitted opposing signals.",
 "state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior state (no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory supplied)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}