Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: policy_headline_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-01 |
Near-term copper sentiment skews upward as late-surge narratives around infrastructure buildout and grid/energy-transition capex dominate recent signals. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
44 |
| copper |
B-copper-02 |
Copper sentiment remains supported over the next day by demand-side (energy transition, industrial activity) and supply-chain disruption framing; net bullish bias. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
44 |
| copper |
B-copper-03 |
Reversal sensitivity is elevated due to trade-policy and strategic-mineral policy narratives that can quickly introduce opposing price pressure. |
52 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-copper-20260327T030000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures (HG)",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-01",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper sentiment skews upward as late-surge narratives around infrastructure buildout and grid/energy-transition capex dominate the most recent signal window.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"infrastructure development / capex demand",
"electric grid modernisation / energy-transition demand",
"broad multi-source reinforcement with very recent updates"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Policy/trade headlines can flip risk appetite rapidly (not observed as direct counterevidence in this corpus slice)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-02",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper sentiment remains supported over the next day by a mix of demand-side (energy transition, industrial activity framing) and supply-chain disruption framing, yielding a net bullish bias rather than a one-off spike.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy-transition framing (IEA and grid buildout narratives)",
"large producer/miner adjacency (Rio Tinto, BHP, Freeport-McMoRan)",
"supply-chain disruption framing"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Trade-policy uncertainty as a potential demand drag (no explicit opposing evidence records admitted)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-03",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Reversal sensitivity is elevated (but not triggered) because trade-policy narratives and strategic-mineral policy framing are present and can quickly introduce opposing price pressure without much lead time.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"U.S. trade/strategic mineral policy narratives",
"Trump/trade-policy headline sensitivity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No fresh opposing-direction evidence mass detected inside the last ~2 hours"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-01",
"B-copper-02",
"B-copper-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 36,
"B": 8,
"C": 3,
"D": 67,
"U": 0,
"note": "Approximate (summed from the 3 most recent/high-heat admitted trends' authority_tier_counts; overlaps possible)."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_with_updates_0_6h": 2,
"signals_with_updates_6_24h": 7,
"signals_with_updates_24_72h": 3,
"signals_with_updates_gt_72h": 0,
"note": "Signal-level freshness inferred from each admitted trend's newest_timestamp proxy."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Trade-policy / strategic-minerals policy narratives are present; they can introduce rapid counterpressure even when the current corpus lacks explicit opposing evidence."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skews_lower_tier",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Directional mass is broad, but a material share of evidence is Tier-D; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If next-cycle evidence maintains bullish directional score >= +40 with no fresh opposing cluster in the last 2h, keep a long-bias watch."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing-direction signals appear from 2+ independent records within a 2h window (or a single hard structural invalidator), switch to reversal_watch / hard_de_risk_watch."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score compresses into [-20,+20] alongside declining freshness, prefer stay_flat (rangebound drift)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit trend_physics / trend_state_memory v2 fields present in inputs; used evidence_recency_proxy + temporal_profile heuristics for recency/momentum.",
"No contradictions array entries provided; actual_counterevidence_score treated as low due to absence of admitted opposing signals.",
"state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior state (no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory supplied)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}