Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF_policy_whipsaw_001 (narrative_whipsaw, medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-27T21:59:29Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B_copper_up_6h_demand_policy_001 Copper futures show an upward bias as infrastructure/grid-modernisation and energy-transition demand narratives remain dominant. 62 up accelerating 6h false 38
copper B_copper_up_24h_breadth_002 Over the next 24h the broader signal set remains net supportive for copper (demand/support narratives outweigh supply-easing or demand-destruction). 66 up stable 24h false 38
copper B_copper_volatility_24h_policy_003 Copper futures are exposed to elevated headline-driven volatility risk (trade policy / geopolitical / regulatory messaging) even while net directional bias is positive. 57 mixed stable 24h false 38

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_copper_2026-03-27T21:59:29Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T21:59:29Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B_copper_up_6h_demand_policy_001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures show an upward bias as infrastructure / grid-modernisation and energy-transition demand narratives remain the dominant fresh drivers.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "industrial_demand", "energy_transition_demand", "china_policy", "inventory_exchange_stocks" ], "contradicted_by": [ "No material fresh bearish counter-evidence admitted in this cycle; main risk is policy/trade-driven whipsaw rather than an evidenced downshift." ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B_copper_up_24h_breadth_002", "market": "copper", "claim": "Over the next 24h, the broader signal set remains net supportive for copper (demand/support narratives outweigh supply-easing or demand-destruction narratives in the admitted corpus).", "probability_pct": 66, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "industrial_demand", "energy_transition_demand", "trade_policy", "mine_supply_disruption" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Potential for sudden trade-policy headline shock (not present as concrete opposing evidence in admitted signals)." ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B_copper_volatility_24h_policy_003", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures are exposed to elevated headline-driven volatility risk (trade policy / geopolitical / regulatory messaging) even while the net directional bias is positive.", "probability_pct": 57, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "trade_policy", "china_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 76, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 38, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B_copper_up_6h_demand_policy_001", "B_copper_up_24h_breadth_002", "B_copper_volatility_24h_policy_003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 49, "B": 7, "C": 4, "D": 105, "U": 0, "basis_note": "Summed from a subset of the highest-relevance admitted trends' evidence_bundle authority_tier_counts (top demand/policy clusters); not a full-manifest sum." }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_estimate_0_6h": 2, "fresh_estimate_6_24h": 2, "stale_estimate_gt_72h": 6, "basis_note": "Estimated using trends' evidence_recency_proxy newest timestamps (proxy) within the last 24h window." }, "internal_signed_directional_score_-100_to_100": 46, "actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 8, "reversal_triggered": false, "reversal_evidence_summary": "No admitted fresh bearish acceleration cluster; reversal risk is driven mainly by policy/trade headline sensitivity rather than evidenced bearish mass." } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF_policy_whipsaw_001", "market": "copper", "flag": "narrative_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "details": "Trade-policy and China-policy narratives are active; these can flip intraday without appearing as gradual counter-evidence in the corpus." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF_low_tier_share_002", "market": "copper", "flag": "authority_mix_skew_low", "severity": "medium", "details": "Directional mass is broad, but a meaningful share of supporting items are lower-tier sources; conviction relies on breadth/recency rather than a single official confirm." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF_data_to_price_mapping_003", "market": "copper", "flag": "driver_to_price_translation_risk", "severity": "low", "details": "Many admitted drivers are macro/industrial narratives; translation into immediate futures direction can lag and may be regime-dependent." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with fresh confirmation in the next cycle and no rise in fresh bearish counter-evidence." }, { "market": "copper", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Any emergence of 2+ independent, fresh (<=2h) bearish records/signals that materially increases contradiction ratio vs prior cycle." }, { "market": "copper", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Trade-policy or China-policy headline cluster acceleration while directional mass remains bullish (expect choppy tape)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 20, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": -20, "acceleration_score": -40, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 30, "acceleration_score": 25, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 30, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 8, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target resolved explicitly to copper; analysis constrained to single_market.", "No explicit contradiction objects provided; actual_counterevidence_score reflects absence of fresh opposing admitted signals (not absence of risk).", "State_change set to unchanged due to unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table available).", "Timeseries buckets are proxy-derived using trend evidence_recency_proxy newest timestamps and background persistence; per-record timestamp granularity was not available in this input slice." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }