Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_crop_conditions (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-27T22:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Freight/logistics disruption signals likely to keep delivered coffee costs elevated, biasing coffee futures upward over the next 24 hours. 63 up accelerating 24h false 58
coffee B-coffee-002 Consumer/retail coffee demand tone (expansion + product/health narratives) is supportive and reduces downside pressure on coffee futures in the next 24 hours. 58 up stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-20260327T221000Z-coffee",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T22:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Freight/logistics disruption signals (shipping network stress + trade-flow friction) are likely to keep delivered coffee costs elevated, biasing coffee futures upward over the next 24 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply",
 "macro_geopolitical_logistics"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Signals pointing to logistics capacity/efficiency improvements that could ease freight pressure",
 "Rapid de-escalation or resolution of shipping disruptions"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Consumer/retail coffee demand tone (expansion + product/health narratives) is supportive and reduces downside pressure on coffee futures in the next 24 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends",
 "product_innovation",
 "retail_channel_expansion"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Weakening consumption/traffic data or demand shock headlines",
 "Price-sensitive substitution away from coffee in key consuming regions"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 113,
 "B": 9,
 "C": 12,
 "D": 262,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 5,
 "fresh_6_24h": 5,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_crop_conditions",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Current admitted corpus is dominated by logistics + demand-tone signals; direct origin crop-condition/disease shocks (coffee-specific) are not prominent in the admitted set, increasing model fragility."
 },
 {
 "flag": "macro_to_price_mapping_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several high-heat signals are macro/logistics risk narratives; mapping into coffee futures direction is plausible but indirect, raising reversal sensitivity to any direct supply/demand headline."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_watch_logistics_easing",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Some signals indicate logistics adaptation/technology improvements which may counter freight-driven upside pressure."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) shipping disruption / freight-cost escalation signals arrive without offsetting logistics-easing evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence appears that freight pressure is easing materially (e.g., restored routing/capacity) or if a direct coffee-origin supply headline contradicts the current upward bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If late-hour headline cadence increases (clustered logistics + policy updates) indicating potential fast sentiment swings."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next cycle shows reduced freshness (few updates) and contradiction rises, implying a rangebound regime."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target resolved explicitly to 'coffee' from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "No explicit per-trend physics fields (trend_physics / trend_state_memory) were provided in-baton; synthesis used evidence recency proxies, authority tier mixes, and thematic driver alignment.",
 "Snapshot timestamp anchored to latest available in-baton evidence timestamp; some evidence timestamps are later than the flight_plan timestamp, implying cached/async updates in the upstream feed."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}