Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_crop_conditions (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-27T22:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Freight/logistics disruption signals likely to keep delivered coffee costs elevated, biasing coffee futures upward over the next 24 hours. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Consumer/retail coffee demand tone (expansion + product/health narratives) is supportive and reduces downside pressure on coffee futures in the next 24 hours. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-20260327T221000Z-coffee",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T22:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Freight/logistics disruption signals (shipping network stress + trade-flow friction) are likely to keep delivered coffee costs elevated, biasing coffee futures upward over the next 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"macro_geopolitical_logistics"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Signals pointing to logistics capacity/efficiency improvements that could ease freight pressure",
"Rapid de-escalation or resolution of shipping disruptions"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Consumer/retail coffee demand tone (expansion + product/health narratives) is supportive and reduces downside pressure on coffee futures in the next 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends",
"product_innovation",
"retail_channel_expansion"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Weakening consumption/traffic data or demand shock headlines",
"Price-sensitive substitution away from coffee in key consuming regions"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 113,
"B": 9,
"C": 12,
"D": 262,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 5,
"fresh_6_24h": 5,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_crop_conditions",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Current admitted corpus is dominated by logistics + demand-tone signals; direct origin crop-condition/disease shocks (coffee-specific) are not prominent in the admitted set, increasing model fragility."
},
{
"flag": "macro_to_price_mapping_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several high-heat signals are macro/logistics risk narratives; mapping into coffee futures direction is plausible but indirect, raising reversal sensitivity to any direct supply/demand headline."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_watch_logistics_easing",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Some signals indicate logistics adaptation/technology improvements which may counter freight-driven upside pressure."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) shipping disruption / freight-cost escalation signals arrive without offsetting logistics-easing evidence."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence appears that freight pressure is easing materially (e.g., restored routing/capacity) or if a direct coffee-origin supply headline contradicts the current upward bias."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If late-hour headline cadence increases (clustered logistics + policy updates) indicating potential fast sentiment swings."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If the next cycle shows reduced freshness (few updates) and contradiction rises, implying a rangebound regime."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target resolved explicitly to 'coffee' from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No explicit per-trend physics fields (trend_physics / trend_state_memory) were provided in-baton; synthesis used evidence recency proxies, authority tier mixes, and thematic driver alignment.",
"Snapshot timestamp anchored to latest available in-baton evidence timestamp; some evidence timestamps are later than the flight_plan timestamp, implying cached/async updates in the upstream feed."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}