Snapshot:
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: indirect_driver_bias
- generated_at: 2026-03-27T08:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table:
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-001 | Near-term coffee futures price bias is upward due to logistics / shipping disruption risk and trade-regulation uncertainty raising effective delivered supply costs. | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 54 |
| coffee | B-coffee-002 | Coffee futures have a modest upward bias on the 24h horizon from demand-side expansion signals (coffee shop growth / brand-led consumption resilience) reinforcing risk-premium in coffee pricing. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 54 |
| coffee | B-coffee-003 | Weather/climate disruption narratives are keeping an elevated upward risk premium embedded in coffee futures (tail-risk skew to the upside). | 55 | up | fading | 24h | false | 54 |
Data Dump (Machine Use):
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-20260327T080000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures price bias is upward due to logistics / shipping disruption risk and trade-regulation uncertainty raising effective delivered supply costs.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Maritime trade regulation / routing uncertainty (Hormuz/logistics narrative cluster)",
"Air/sea freight disruption narratives (shipping and cargo disruption signals)",
"Broad-based logistics risk coverage with high source breadth"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures have a modest upward bias on the 24h horizon from demand-side expansion signals (coffee shop growth / brand-led consumption resilience) reinforcing risk-premium in coffee pricing.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Coffee shop expansion / experience trend",
"Large-chain growth / market expansion narratives",
"Consumption and wellness-oriented coffee demand narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Weather/climate disruption narratives are keeping an elevated upward risk premium embedded in coffee futures (tail-risk skew to the upside).",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Climate impact / agroindustry disruption narratives",
"Operational surge risk flagged in coffee-adjacent climate disruption stream"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 153,
"B": 16,
"C": 5,
"D": 304,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_evidence_0_24h_est": 155,
"mid_evidence_24_72h_est": 220,
"stale_evidence_gt_72h_est": 103,
"note": "Estimates derived from admitted-signal recency proxies and newest-timestamp clustering; exact per-record bucketisation not provided in input."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "indirect_driver_bias",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is macro/logistics/demand narrative rather than direct coffee-origin supply/crop-condition datapoints; price-direction inference may be fragile to new crop news."
},
{
"flag": "authority_skew_to_lower_tiers",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large portion of coverage is Tier-D; authority confirmation is supportive but not dominant."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_rise_after_peak",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Post-peak hours show higher contradiction ratio alongside cooling directional score (bullish still intact, but momentum could soften)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain watch_long_bias label while directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and fresh_evidence_count remains elevated (no opposing fresh cluster emerges)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.18 for 2+ consecutive buckets or directional_score_signed drops below +20."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if any fresh (<=2h) opposing evidence cluster appears (2+ independent records) and directional_score_signed falls by >= 20 points versus prior 3-hour mean."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 14,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 15,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 16,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 17,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 18,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 16,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 14,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 11,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-27T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-27T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 48,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided; state_change computed with neutral baseline assumption => new_bullish.",
"No explicit opposing (bearish) coffee-specific evidence cluster detected in admitted signals; reversal_risk set to medium primarily due to indirect-driver dependence and post-peak contradiction uptick.",
"VIP/risk items with unclear coffee linkage were not used as primary directional drivers; unmapped_signal_count_est=6."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}