Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-001 (narrative_whipsaw)
- generated_at: 2026-03-26T10:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Elevated LNG supply-chain/geopolitical disruption risk (Qatar/Ras Laffan/Hormuz-linked narratives) is supporting an upward bias in natural gas futures over the next 6–24 hours. | 66 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 63 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Even with bullish pressure, the thesis is event-driven and prone to fast reversals on de-escalation / disruption-resolution headlines, implying elevated short-term whipsaw risk. | 61 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 63 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "snap_20260326T103000Z_natural_gas_6B", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-26T10:30:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Elevated LNG supply-chain/geopolitical disruption risk (Qatar/Ras Laffan/Hormuz-linked narratives) is supporting an upward bias in natural gas futures over the next 6\u201324 hours.", "probability_pct": 66, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "lng_export_flows", "energy_geopolitics", "pipeline_infrastructure" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Even with bullish pressure, the thesis is event-driven and prone to fast reversals on de-escalation / disruption-resolution headlines, implying elevated short-term whipsaw risk.", "probability_pct": 61, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "energy_geopolitics", "lng_export_flows", "production_outages" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 224, "B": 29, "C": 2, "D": 319, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 14, "fresh_6_24h": 0, "stale_24_72h": 0, "stale_gt_72h": 2 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "type": "narrative_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "description": "Direction supported primarily by geopolitics/LNG disruption narratives; headline-driven reversals remain plausible even without current counterevidence." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "type": "event_driven_fragility", "severity": "medium", "description": "High concentration of supply-route disruption themes (Qatar/Ras Laffan/Hormuz) increases fragility to rapid news updates." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-003", "market": "natural_gas", "type": "echo_risk_vip_lane", "severity": "low", "description": "Recent VIP outliers are single-source/low-diversity items; treated as weak confirmers only." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-004", "market": "natural_gas", "type": "stale_background_overhang", "severity": "low", "description": "Older (>=72h) legal/political risk anomalies remain in background context but are not driving the near-term direction." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action": "watch_long_bias", "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If LNG disruption / Middle East escalation headlines continue to cluster and no fresh counterevidence appears in the next 2\u20136 hours." }, { "action": "volatility_watch", "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If additional infrastructure/supply-route risk items arrive (or if key narratives de-escalate), expect rapid regime swings." }, { "action": "reversal_watch", "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) items indicate disruption resolution / de-escalation, or a contradiction spike appears." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 13, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 62, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 62, "velocity_score": 14, "acceleration_score": 11, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 57, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 57, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -19, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 62, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.", "No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used trend/vip/risk metadata (recency proxies, authority tier counts, and thematic mapping) for synthesis.", "state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' because no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory was supplied." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }