Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-26T16:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B1 Over the next 24h, lithium futures are more likely to remain rangebound than to trend strongly, as demand-growth narratives (EV adop... 55 mixed stable 24h false 63
lithium B2 In the next 6–24h, there is a meaningful upside tail-risk for lithium futures if policy/regulatory signals shift towards tightening sup... 32 up accelerating 6h false 63
lithium B3 In the next 24h, downside pressure is plausible if the market interprets extraction/expansion and supply-chain buildout as near-term overs... 36 down accelerating 24h false 63

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-lithium-2026-03-26T16:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 56, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures are more likely to remain rangebound than to trend strongly, as demand-growth narratives (EV adoption + battery capacity) are partially offset by supply-expansion/processing-capacity narratives.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "EV adoption / battery capacity expansion narratives support demand expectations", "Critical-minerals supply-chain development and extraction scaling reduce scarcity premium", "Policy/regulatory themes add event-risk but not a clean one-way impulse" ], "contradicted_by": [ "A discrete, verified supply disruption or restrictive regulation emerging as dominant fresh evidence", "A discrete, verified demand shock (policy rollback / weak EV sales data) emerging as dominant fresh evidence" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B2", "market": "lithium", "claim": "In the next 6\u201324h, there is a meaningful upside tail-risk for lithium futures if policy/regulatory signals shift towards tightening supply or accelerating critical-minerals demand.", "probability_pct": 32, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Regulatory/policy catalysts impacting critical minerals and EV supply chains", "Any credible constraints on Latin American supply (including Chile-related policy direction)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Fresh confirmation of rapid supply additions / higher-than-expected ramp rates dominating the same window" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B3", "market": "lithium", "claim": "In the next 24h, downside pressure is plausible if the market interprets extraction/expansion and supply-chain buildout as near-term oversupply/normalisation, outweighing demand narratives.", "probability_pct": 36, "direction": "down", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Extraction/processing scale-up narratives (e.g., major producers / technology improvements)", "Supply-chain development lowering perceived scarcity premium" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Fresh, multi-source evidence of supply tightness or disruptions", "Fresh, broad confirmation of accelerating EV/battery demand exceeding expectations" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "stable", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1", "B2", "B3" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 158, "B": 7, "C": 24, "D": 217, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_evidence_0_6h_est": 4, "fresh_evidence_6_24h_est": 8, "older_context_gt_24h_est": 16, "note": "Freshness mix estimated from trend/vip/risk timestamps available at aggregation layer; per-record time distribution not provided in this input." } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "lithium", "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Several dominant themes are multi-day narratives; they support directional mass but can reduce near-term signal purity." }, { "market": "lithium", "flag": "supply_addition_headwind", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Extraction scaling + critical-minerals supply-chain buildout themes can cap upside even with demand-positive headlines." }, { "market": "lithium", "flag": "policy_regulatory_volatility", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Policy/regulatory items create jump-risk; current corpus does not resolve them into a single directional impulse." }, { "market": "lithium", "flag": "vip_single_source_echo_risk", "severity": "low", "detail": "Multiple VIP-lane items are single-source; treated as low-weight context, not primary directional drivers." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "high", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral label while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 and contradiction_ratio stays below ~0.45." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if a fresh catalyst pushes directional_score_signed beyond +/-20 within a 1\u20132h window or if contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.50." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if 2+ independent fresh opposing signals appear inside 2h and materially reduce net directional mass." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -2, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 51, "net_sentiment_score": -2, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.4, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 50, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.41, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -8, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 54, "net_sentiment_score": -8, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.42, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -12, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 56, "net_sentiment_score": -12, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.43, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -6, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 53, "net_sentiment_score": -6, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.41, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 49, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.39, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 47, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.37, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 48, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.38, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 49, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.38, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 1, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 50, "net_sentiment_score": 1, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.39, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 50, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.4, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 1, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 50, "net_sentiment_score": 1, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.4, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 47, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.37, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 47, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.37, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 9, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 48, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": -7, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.45, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 22, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -12, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 7, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 4, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.", "State-change computed without prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory; defaulted to 'unchanged' with unknown prior.", "Excluded at least one thin-signal trend (evidence_count < client min_evidence_threshold=3) from primary directional synthesis.", "VIP-lane single-source items retained as low-weight context only (echo-risk).", "Timeseries values are conservative reconstructions based on available aggregate timestamps (trend/vip/risk) rather than per-record time allocation." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }