Snapshot

  • subject_area: Crude oil (WTI/Brent)
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: volatility_elevated (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-26T14:45:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude-001 Near-term geopolitical/shipping-route risk is sustaining an upside risk premium in crude oil (WTI/Brent) over the next 6–24 hours. 66 up accelerating 24h false 62
crude_oil B-crude-002 If shipping disruption signals at key chokepoints (especially Strait of Hormuz) intensify or become operationally confirmed, crude price upside pressure strengthens rapidly inside 6 hours. 58 up accelerating 6h false 62
crude_oil B-crude-003 Countervailing market signals (e.g., inventory build/SPR narrative and intermittent down-direction market prints) can cap upside and raise the chance of a short-term pullback despite elevated geopolitical risk. 38 mixed stable 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260326T144500Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-26T14:45:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Crude oil (WTI/Brent)",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "inferred_trend",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term geopolitical/shipping-route risk is sustaining an upside risk premium in crude oil (WTI/Brent) over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Iran/Israel and regional escalation headlines clustering around the Strait of Hormuz and other chokepoints",
 "Broad multi-source coverage with meaningful Tier-A presence (Reuters/Bloomberg/FT/WSJ/BBC/Guardian) within the last 24h",
 "Multiple market-tagged records explicitly referencing WTI/Brent upside or oil-price sensitivity to chokepoints"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-crude-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "If shipping disruption signals at key chokepoints (especially Strait of Hormuz) intensify or become operationally confirmed, crude price upside pressure strengthens rapidly inside 6 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Operational and market records repeatedly co-mentioning Hormuz/chokepoints with crude oil / WTI / Brent",
 "High recency clustering (majority of cited records are within the same day window)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-crude-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Countervailing market signals (e.g., inventory build/SPR narrative and intermittent down-direction market prints) can cap upside and raise the chance of a short-term pullback despite elevated geopolitical risk.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Presence of some market records with down/negative direction alongside bullish-risk coverage",
 "Typical headline-driven whipsaw in energy during fast-moving geopolitical cycles"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-crude-001",
 "B-crude-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 85,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude-001",
 "B-crude-002",
 "B-crude-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 22,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 28,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "0_6h": 18,
 "6_24h": 70,
 "24_72h": 2,
 "gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Geopolitical/chokepoint narratives are high-velocity and can reverse on single announcements; mixed market-direction records are present."
 },
 {
 "flag": "reversal_risk_medium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Some fresh counter-direction market prints exist alongside a dominant bullish risk-premium signal; contradiction is not high but non-zero."
 },
 {
 "flag": "volatility_elevated",
 "severity": "high",
 "rationale": "Concentration of signals around conflict escalation and maritime chokepoints implies gap-risk and fast repricing potential."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain while net directional_score_signed stays >= +40 and no late-breaking invalidation (<=2h) appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Elevate if contradiction_ratio rises above 0.35 in the last 2 hourly buckets or if late-breaking opposing evidence appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Activate if directional_score_signed drops by >= 30 points over 3 hours (negative velocity + negative acceleration) with rising counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Prefer if directional_score_signed falls into [-20, +20] with contradiction_ratio >= 0.35 (rangebound/unclear regime)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 1,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 12,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 13,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 1,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 14,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 1,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 15,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 73,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 1,
 "net_sentiment_score": 73,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 15,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 77,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 76,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 76,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 16,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 78,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 78,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 18,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 77,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 77,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 19,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 74,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 17,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 15,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 12,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -12,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "flight_plan.system_mode missing; proceeding under commodities_trading assumptions due to dominant crude-oil-linked trend evidence.",
 "No trend_state_memory/prior market_state provided; state_change emitted as new_bullish versus an unknown/neutral prior baseline.",
 "Contradiction arrays were empty at trend level; counterevidence inferred from mixed market-direction records within the admitted corpus."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}