Snapshot
- subject_area: Crude oil (WTI/Brent)
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: volatility_elevated (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-26T14:45:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-crude-001 | Near-term geopolitical/shipping-route risk is sustaining an upside risk premium in crude oil (WTI/Brent) over the next 6–24 hours. | 66 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 62 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-002 | If shipping disruption signals at key chokepoints (especially Strait of Hormuz) intensify or become operationally confirmed, crude price upside pressure strengthens rapidly inside 6 hours. | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 62 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-003 | Countervailing market signals (e.g., inventory build/SPR narrative and intermittent down-direction market prints) can cap upside and raise the chance of a short-term pullback despite elevated geopolitical risk. | 38 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260326T144500Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-26T14:45:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Crude oil (WTI/Brent)",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "inferred_trend",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term geopolitical/shipping-route risk is sustaining an upside risk premium in crude oil (WTI/Brent) over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Iran/Israel and regional escalation headlines clustering around the Strait of Hormuz and other chokepoints",
"Broad multi-source coverage with meaningful Tier-A presence (Reuters/Bloomberg/FT/WSJ/BBC/Guardian) within the last 24h",
"Multiple market-tagged records explicitly referencing WTI/Brent upside or oil-price sensitivity to chokepoints"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-crude-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "If shipping disruption signals at key chokepoints (especially Strait of Hormuz) intensify or become operationally confirmed, crude price upside pressure strengthens rapidly inside 6 hours.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Operational and market records repeatedly co-mentioning Hormuz/chokepoints with crude oil / WTI / Brent",
"High recency clustering (majority of cited records are within the same day window)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-crude-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Countervailing market signals (e.g., inventory build/SPR narrative and intermittent down-direction market prints) can cap upside and raise the chance of a short-term pullback despite elevated geopolitical risk.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Presence of some market records with down/negative direction alongside bullish-risk coverage",
"Typical headline-driven whipsaw in energy during fast-moving geopolitical cycles"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-crude-001",
"B-crude-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 85,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude-001",
"B-crude-002",
"B-crude-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 22,
"B": 2,
"C": 0,
"D": 28,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"0_6h": 18,
"6_24h": 70,
"24_72h": 2,
"gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Geopolitical/chokepoint narratives are high-velocity and can reverse on single announcements; mixed market-direction records are present."
},
{
"flag": "reversal_risk_medium",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Some fresh counter-direction market prints exist alongside a dominant bullish risk-premium signal; contradiction is not high but non-zero."
},
{
"flag": "volatility_elevated",
"severity": "high",
"rationale": "Concentration of signals around conflict escalation and maritime chokepoints implies gap-risk and fast repricing potential."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain while net directional_score_signed stays >= +40 and no late-breaking invalidation (<=2h) appears."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Elevate if contradiction_ratio rises above 0.35 in the last 2 hourly buckets or if late-breaking opposing evidence appears."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Activate if directional_score_signed drops by >= 30 points over 3 hours (negative velocity + negative acceleration) with rising counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Prefer if directional_score_signed falls into [-20, +20] with contradiction_ratio >= 0.35 (rangebound/unclear regime)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 1,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 13,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 1,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 14,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 1,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 15,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 73,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 1,
"net_sentiment_score": 73,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 15,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 77,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 76,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 76,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 16,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 78,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 78,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 18,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 77,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 77,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 19,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 74,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 17,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 15,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -12,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"flight_plan.system_mode missing; proceeding under commodities_trading assumptions due to dominant crude-oil-linked trend evidence.",
"No trend_state_memory/prior market_state provided; state_change emitted as new_bullish versus an unknown/neutral prior baseline.",
"Contradiction arrays were empty at trend level; counterevidence inferred from mixed market-direction records within the admitted corpus."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}