Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_policy_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-03-26T13:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-CU-001 Copper futures have a net-upward bias over the next 24h as energy-transition/grid-modernisation demand and supply-tightness/disruption narratives remain dominant. 60 up accelerating 24h false 46
copper B-CU-002 Copper futures are modestly biased higher over the next 6h, but the move is fragile and sensitive to policy/trade headlines. 57 up stable 6h false 46
copper B-CU-003 Risk of short-horizon pullbacks remains elevated despite the bullish bias because much of the narrative set is macro/policy-driven and prone to fast sentiment flips. 41 mixed stable 6h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_copper_20260326T131000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-26T13:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CU-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures have a net-upward bias over the next 24h as energy-transition/grid-modernisation demand narratives and supply-tightness/disruption narratives remain dominant in the recent corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks",
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CU-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures are modestly biased higher over the next 6h, but the move is fragile and sensitive to policy/trade headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CU-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Risk of short-horizon pullbacks remains elevated despite the bullish bias because a meaningful portion of the narrative set is macro/policy-driven and prone to fast sentiment flips (without needing opposing evidence to appear in advance).",
 "probability_pct": 41,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CU-001",
 "B-CU-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CU-001",
 "B-CU-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 50,
 "B": 6,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 60,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Approximate (non-deduped) roll-up from the admitted trend evidence bundles; per-record physics and deduplication were not available in the provided input."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 0.22,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 0.38,
 "stale_over_72h_est": 0.4,
 "note": "Estimated from trend-level newest timestamps and temporal profiles (not from per-record timestamps)."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_policy_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A significant share of admitted drivers are trade/china-policy narratives that can reverse sentiment rapidly."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but many sources are lower-tier; conviction is therefore more fragile than the direction suggests."
 },
 {
 "flag": "timeseries_bucketisation_heuristic",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Hourly signal_timeseries is a conservative shape proxy due to missing per-record timestamp distribution in the supplied inputs."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch while directional_score_signed stays >= +20 AND thesis_kill_switch=false."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if fragility_score_0_100 rises >= 60 OR if fresh policy/trade headlines introduce genuine opposing evidence within a 2h window."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 51,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 51,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 51,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 51,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ],
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 34,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as copper; scope constrained to single-market output.",
 "No explicit contradictions/counterevidence objects were provided; reversal risk is therefore driven mainly by fragility/macro-policy sensitivity rather than observed opposing evidence.",
 "Prior state was not provided via trend_state_memory or prior market_state_table; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' with unknown prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}