Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_policy_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-03-26T13:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-CU-001 |
Copper futures have a net-upward bias over the next 24h as energy-transition/grid-modernisation demand and supply-tightness/disruption narratives remain dominant. |
60 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
46 |
| copper |
B-CU-002 |
Copper futures are modestly biased higher over the next 6h, but the move is fragile and sensitive to policy/trade headlines. |
57 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
46 |
| copper |
B-CU-003 |
Risk of short-horizon pullbacks remains elevated despite the bullish bias because much of the narrative set is macro/policy-driven and prone to fast sentiment flips. |
41 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_copper_20260326T131000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-26T13:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CU-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures have a net-upward bias over the next 24h as energy-transition/grid-modernisation demand narratives and supply-tightness/disruption narratives remain dominant in the recent corpus.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"inventory_exchange_stocks",
"mine_supply_disruption",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CU-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures are modestly biased higher over the next 6h, but the move is fragile and sensitive to policy/trade headlines.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy",
"inventory_exchange_stocks"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CU-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Risk of short-horizon pullbacks remains elevated despite the bullish bias because a meaningful portion of the narrative set is macro/policy-driven and prone to fast sentiment flips (without needing opposing evidence to appear in advance).",
"probability_pct": 41,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CU-001",
"B-CU-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CU-001",
"B-CU-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 50,
"B": 6,
"C": 2,
"D": 60,
"U": 0,
"note": "Approximate (non-deduped) roll-up from the admitted trend evidence bundles; per-record physics and deduplication were not available in the provided input."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 0.22,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 0.38,
"stale_over_72h_est": 0.4,
"note": "Estimated from trend-level newest timestamps and temporal profiles (not from per-record timestamps)."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_policy_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A significant share of admitted drivers are trade/china-policy narratives that can reverse sentiment rapidly."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but many sources are lower-tier; conviction is therefore more fragile than the direction suggests."
},
{
"flag": "timeseries_bucketisation_heuristic",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Hourly signal_timeseries is a conservative shape proxy due to missing per-record timestamp distribution in the supplied inputs."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch while directional_score_signed stays >= +20 AND thesis_kill_switch=false."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if fragility_score_0_100 rises >= 60 OR if fresh policy/trade headlines introduce genuine opposing evidence within a 2h window."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 51,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 51,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
],
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 34,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as copper; scope constrained to single-market output.",
"No explicit contradictions/counterevidence objects were provided; reversal risk is therefore driven mainly by fragility/macro-policy sensitivity rather than observed opposing evidence.",
"Prior state was not provided via trend_state_memory or prior market_state_table; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' with unknown prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}