Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_logistics_shock_sensitivity
- generated_at: 2026-03-26T15:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Near-term coffee futures face upward price pressure from logistics/shipping friction and trade-policy uncertainty that can... |
64% |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Weather/climate risk headlines remain a supportive (bullish) background factor for coffee price risk premia, but is not a high-precision... |
57% |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-003 |
Demand/consumption narrative signals add modest bullish bias, but are secondary to supply/logistics drivers over 6–24h. |
55% |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260326-coffee-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-26T15:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures face upward price pressure from logistics/shipping friction and trade-policy uncertainty that can tighten effective supply and raise delivered costs.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"trade/logistics disruption signals (multi-trend + recent VIP lane)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No explicit fresh, coffee-specific surplus/harvest-improvement signals present in admitted corpus"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Weather/climate risk headlines remain a supportive (bullish) background factor for coffee price risk premia, but is not a high-precision short-horizon driver in this cycle.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"weather_disruptions",
"crop_conditions_disease",
"climate-risk anomaly cueing"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Seed-level anomaly evidence is thin (limited materialised records in the risk anomaly lane)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand/consumption narrative signals (consumer trends / coffee health & wellness / branded commerce references) add modest bullish bias, but are secondary to supply/logistics drivers over 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends",
"pricing/commerce narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Demand narratives can be slow-moving and may not map cleanly to 6h price action"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 18,
"B": 2,
"C": 0,
"D": 16,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 5,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 2,
"stale_over_24h_background_est": 7
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_logistics_shock_sensitivity",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Coffee bullish bias is heavily explained by logistics/trade friction; rapid de-escalation can compress risk premia."
},
{
"flag": "evidence_granularity_gap",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Admitted signals are trend/VIP summaries without per-record directional physics; reduces precision of inflection timing."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_vip_noise",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Several VIP lane items are single-source and should not dominate conviction."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If logistics/trade-friction signals persist or broaden over the next 6\u201324h without fresh counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If two or more independent, coffee-specific easing signals appear within a 2h window (e.g., rapid de-escalation / improved export flow), raising contradiction materially."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional late-breaking operational/shipping disruptions are detected (VIP-style spikes) while liquidity is thin."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If conviction drops below 50 due to staleness or emerging counterevidence."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 61,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 69,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 69,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 69,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 63,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided (unknown_prior); state_change left as 'unchanged' to avoid false reversal classification.",
"Directional mapping interprets trade/logistics friction and origin-supply risk as net bullish price pressure for coffee futures over 6\u201324h."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}