Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_logistics_shock_sensitivity
  • generated_at: 2026-03-26T15:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term coffee futures face upward price pressure from logistics/shipping friction and trade-policy uncertainty that can... 64% up accelerating 24h false 58
coffee B-coffee-002 Weather/climate risk headlines remain a supportive (bullish) background factor for coffee price risk premia, but is not a high-precision... 57% up stable 24h false 58
coffee B-coffee-003 Demand/consumption narrative signals add modest bullish bias, but are secondary to supply/logistics drivers over 6–24h. 55% up fading 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260326-coffee-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-26T15:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures face upward price pressure from logistics/shipping friction and trade-policy uncertainty that can tighten effective supply and raise delivered costs.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply",
 "trade/logistics disruption signals (multi-trend + recent VIP lane)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No explicit fresh, coffee-specific surplus/harvest-improvement signals present in admitted corpus"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Weather/climate risk headlines remain a supportive (bullish) background factor for coffee price risk premia, but is not a high-precision short-horizon driver in this cycle.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "weather_disruptions",
 "crop_conditions_disease",
 "climate-risk anomaly cueing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Seed-level anomaly evidence is thin (limited materialised records in the risk anomaly lane)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand/consumption narrative signals (consumer trends / coffee health & wellness / branded commerce references) add modest bullish bias, but are secondary to supply/logistics drivers over 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends",
 "pricing/commerce narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Demand narratives can be slow-moving and may not map cleanly to 6h price action"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 18,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 16,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 5,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 2,
 "stale_over_24h_background_est": 7
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_logistics_shock_sensitivity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Coffee bullish bias is heavily explained by logistics/trade friction; rapid de-escalation can compress risk premia."
 },
 {
 "flag": "evidence_granularity_gap",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Admitted signals are trend/VIP summaries without per-record directional physics; reduces precision of inflection timing."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_vip_noise",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Several VIP lane items are single-source and should not dominate conviction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If logistics/trade-friction signals persist or broaden over the next 6\u201324h without fresh counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If two or more independent, coffee-specific easing signals appear within a 2h window (e.g., rapid de-escalation / improved export flow), raising contradiction materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional late-breaking operational/shipping disruptions are detected (VIP-style spikes) while liquidity is thin."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If conviction drops below 50 due to staleness or emerging counterevidence."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 57,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 61,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 51,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 51,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 69,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 69,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-26T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 69,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 63,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided (unknown_prior); state_change left as 'unchanged' to avoid false reversal classification.",
 "Directional mapping interprets trade/logistics friction and origin-supply risk as net bullish price pressure for coffee futures over 6\u201324h."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}