Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: single_source_counter_signal
- generated_at: 2026-03-25T21:57:38Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-001 |
Net news-flow drivers (nuclear policy tailwinds + reactor/innovation narrative) remain supportive, keeping uranium price pressure skewed upward over the next 24h. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
42 |
| uranium |
B-UR-002 |
Near-term (next 6h) sentiment remains modestly bullish but is vulnerable to a brief pullback if the small negative policy/regulatory narrative widens beyond a single source. |
57 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
42 |
| uranium |
B-UR-003 |
Supply-side discourse (major producers / supply-chain geopolitics) continues to bias the market toward higher forward scarcity premia rather than rapid easing. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
42 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_2026-03-25T21:57:38Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T21:57:38Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Net news-flow drivers (nuclear policy tailwinds + reactor/innovation narrative) remain supportive, keeping uranium price pressure skewed upward over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"reactor_demand",
"nuclear_innovation",
"energy_security"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"VIP-009 (single-source negative policy/regulatory critique signal)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term (next 6h) sentiment remains modestly bullish but is vulnerable to a brief pullback if the small negative policy/regulatory narrative widens beyond a single source.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"reputational_policy_risk",
"narrative_whipsaw_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Broad pro-nuclear policy/innovation coverage across multiple sources in the last 24h"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply-side discourse (major producers / supply-chain geopolitics) continues to bias the market toward higher forward scarcity premia rather than rapid easing.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"uranium_supply_contracting",
"supply_chain"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No strong fresh multi-source evidence of supply relief in the admitted set"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002",
"B-UR-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 133,
"B": 13,
"C": 23,
"D": 247,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_with_updates_last_6h": 2,
"signals_with_updates_6h_to_24h": 8,
"signals_stale_over_72h": 1,
"single_source_vip_signals_last_24h": 1
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "single_source_counter_signal",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A fresh negative VIP outlier exists (single-source). Not enough mass to flip direction, but increases reversal sensitivity."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "low_tier_share_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Across admitted trends, Tier-D share is substantial; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "unknown_prior_state",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "No prior trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' by fallback."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Directional mass remains broadly positive with fresh reinforcement and low contradiction."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If the negative policy/regulatory thread gains 2+ independent fresh sources within a short window, reassess for neutralisation/reversal."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If mixed headlines cluster in the same 6h window (rising contradiction ratio), expect choppier tape even if direction stays bullish."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if fresh counterevidence materially rises (contradiction spike + multiple opposing records) and conviction drops below ~50."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 22,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Counterevidence present but thin: actual_counterevidence_score_0_100≤15 (dominated by a single-source VIP negative signal).",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel NOT triggered (no <=2h multi-record opposing cluster; no hard official invalidator in admitted set).",
"Timeseries is conservatively bucketed from signal-level timestamps (peak/last-update proxies), not full per-record distributions."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}