Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: single_source_counter_signal
  • generated_at: 2026-03-25T21:57:38Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Net news-flow drivers (nuclear policy tailwinds + reactor/innovation narrative) remain supportive, keeping uranium price pressure skewed upward over the next 24h. 62 up stable 24h false 42
uranium B-UR-002 Near-term (next 6h) sentiment remains modestly bullish but is vulnerable to a brief pullback if the small negative policy/regulatory narrative widens beyond a single source. 57 up fading 6h false 42
uranium B-UR-003 Supply-side discourse (major producers / supply-chain geopolitics) continues to bias the market toward higher forward scarcity premia rather than rapid easing. 60 up stable 24h false 42

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_2026-03-25T21:57:38Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T21:57:38Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Net news-flow drivers (nuclear policy tailwinds + reactor/innovation narrative) remain supportive, keeping uranium price pressure skewed upward over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_innovation",
 "energy_security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "VIP-009 (single-source negative policy/regulatory critique signal)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term (next 6h) sentiment remains modestly bullish but is vulnerable to a brief pullback if the small negative policy/regulatory narrative widens beyond a single source.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "reputational_policy_risk",
 "narrative_whipsaw_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Broad pro-nuclear policy/innovation coverage across multiple sources in the last 24h"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Supply-side discourse (major producers / supply-chain geopolitics) continues to bias the market toward higher forward scarcity premia rather than rapid easing.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No strong fresh multi-source evidence of supply relief in the admitted set"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002",
 "B-UR-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 133,
 "B": 13,
 "C": 23,
 "D": 247,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_with_updates_last_6h": 2,
 "signals_with_updates_6h_to_24h": 8,
 "signals_stale_over_72h": 1,
 "single_source_vip_signals_last_24h": 1
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "single_source_counter_signal",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A fresh negative VIP outlier exists (single-source). Not enough mass to flip direction, but increases reversal sensitivity."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "low_tier_share_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Across admitted trends, Tier-D share is substantial; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "unknown_prior_state",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "No prior trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' by fallback."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional mass remains broadly positive with fresh reinforcement and low contradiction."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If the negative policy/regulatory thread gains 2+ independent fresh sources within a short window, reassess for neutralisation/reversal."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If mixed headlines cluster in the same 6h window (rising contradiction ratio), expect choppier tape even if direction stays bullish."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if fresh counterevidence materially rises (contradiction spike + multiple opposing records) and conviction drops below ~50."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 22,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Counterevidence present but thin: actual_counterevidence_score_0_100≤15 (dominated by a single-source VIP negative signal).",
 "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel NOT triggered (no <=2h multi-record opposing cluster; no hard official invalidator in admitted set).",
 "Timeseries is conservatively bucketed from signal-level timestamps (peak/last-update proxies), not full per-record distributions."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}