Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: (not provided)
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-SI-001 (narrative_whipsaw, medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-25 07:05 UTC
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SI-001 | Silver futures are more likely to remain rangebound (choppy/sideways) over the next 6h–24h due to mixed macro (rates/USD) and supply/demand narratives. | 40 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 60 |
| silver | B-SI-002 | Near-term downside pressure risk is elevated if rate-expectations skew hawkish (real-rates up / USD firm), which historically weighs on precious metals including silver. | 32 | down | accelerating | 6h | false | 60 |
| silver | B-SI-003 | Upside tail risk exists from industrial-demand narratives (solar/manufacturing) and safe-haven spillover from gold into silver, but corroboration is uneven (some single-source items). | 28 | up | fading | 24h | false | 60 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-silver-20260325T070500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T07:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver futures are more likely to remain rangebound (choppy/sideways) over the next 6h\u201324h due to mixed macro (rates/USD) and supply/demand narratives.",
"probability_pct": 40,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Monetary policy expectations are active but not one-directional for silver in the admitted corpus",
"Supply/exploration and industrial-demand narratives coexist without a single dominant price-direction mapping"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"A cleaner hawkish-rates / stronger-USD impulse would tilt bearish",
"Clear incremental industrial-demand confirmation would tilt bullish"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Near-term downside pressure risk is elevated if rate-expectations skew hawkish (real-rates up / USD firm), which historically weighs on precious metals including silver.",
"probability_pct": 32,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Rate-expectations / central-bank signalling cluster (macro) showing negative tone",
"Recent net drift in the last-hours signal-shape toward bearish pressure"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any fast USD weakening impulse",
"Fresh evidence of strong industrial offtake (solar/electronics) dominating the tape"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 49,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Upside tail risk exists from industrial-demand narratives (solar/manufacturing) and safe-haven spillover from gold into silver, but corroboration is uneven (some single-source items).",
"probability_pct": 28,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Industrial demand narrative outliers (solar/manufacturing growth)",
"Safe-haven / precious-metals linkage via gold demand narrative"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Hawkish real-rate impulse crowding out metals inflows",
"Supply/exploration narrative interpreted as net supply growth"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-001",
"B-SI-002",
"B-SI-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 16,
"B": 1,
"C": 3,
"D": 29,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.36,
"fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.24,
"stale_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.18,
"stale_over_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.22
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Admitted drivers include both rate-expectations (typically bearish for metals when hawkish) and industrial-demand/safe-haven narratives (typically bullish), raising whipsaw risk."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"type": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several high-coverage themes span >7 days; fresh confirmation exists, but background persistence may overstate current directional clarity."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-003",
"market": "silver",
"type": "data_shape_limit",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Timeseries uses trend-level timestamps (not per-record timestamps), so intraday signal-shape is conservative and may understate sharp moves."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "stay_flat until directional_score_signed exits neutral band (>= +20 or <= -20) with fresh evidence dominance over the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if contradiction_ratio stays >= 0.55 while fresh_evidence_count rises (mixed impulses likely to create chop)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if net sentiment continues drifting downward for 3+ hours while authority-confirmed macro (rates/USD) pressure strengthens."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": -7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": -9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 6,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -12,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as 'silver'; analysis constrained to single-market output.",
"No explicit per-record timestamp stream provided; hourly timeseries derived conservatively from trend/vip timestamps and freshness proxies (trend-level).",
"Directional state held at neutral_mixed because admitted evidence is broad and fresh but does not map cleanly into a single price-direction thesis without counterfactual assumptions."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}