Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: (not provided)
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-SI-001 (narrative_whipsaw, medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-25 07:05 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Silver futures are more likely to remain rangebound (choppy/sideways) over the next 6h–24h due to mixed macro (rates/USD) and supply/demand narratives. 40 mixed stable 24h false 60
silver B-SI-002 Near-term downside pressure risk is elevated if rate-expectations skew hawkish (real-rates up / USD firm), which historically weighs on precious metals including silver. 32 down accelerating 6h false 60
silver B-SI-003 Upside tail risk exists from industrial-demand narratives (solar/manufacturing) and safe-haven spillover from gold into silver, but corroboration is uneven (some single-source items). 28 up fading 24h false 60

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-silver-20260325T070500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T07:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver futures are more likely to remain rangebound (choppy/sideways) over the next 6h\u201324h due to mixed macro (rates/USD) and supply/demand narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 40,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Monetary policy expectations are active but not one-directional for silver in the admitted corpus",
 "Supply/exploration and industrial-demand narratives coexist without a single dominant price-direction mapping"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "A cleaner hawkish-rates / stronger-USD impulse would tilt bearish",
 "Clear incremental industrial-demand confirmation would tilt bullish"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Near-term downside pressure risk is elevated if rate-expectations skew hawkish (real-rates up / USD firm), which historically weighs on precious metals including silver.",
 "probability_pct": 32,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Rate-expectations / central-bank signalling cluster (macro) showing negative tone",
 "Recent net drift in the last-hours signal-shape toward bearish pressure"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any fast USD weakening impulse",
 "Fresh evidence of strong industrial offtake (solar/electronics) dominating the tape"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 49,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Upside tail risk exists from industrial-demand narratives (solar/manufacturing) and safe-haven spillover from gold into silver, but corroboration is uneven (some single-source items).",
 "probability_pct": 28,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Industrial demand narrative outliers (solar/manufacturing growth)",
 "Safe-haven / precious-metals linkage via gold demand narrative"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Hawkish real-rate impulse crowding out metals inflows",
 "Supply/exploration narrative interpreted as net supply growth"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-002",
 "B-SI-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 16,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 29,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.36,
 "fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.24,
 "stale_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.18,
 "stale_over_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.22
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Admitted drivers include both rate-expectations (typically bearish for metals when hawkish) and industrial-demand/safe-haven narratives (typically bullish), raising whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several high-coverage themes span >7 days; fresh confirmation exists, but background persistence may overstate current directional clarity."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "data_shape_limit",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Timeseries uses trend-level timestamps (not per-record timestamps), so intraday signal-shape is conservative and may understate sharp moves."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "stay_flat until directional_score_signed exits neutral band (>= +20 or <= -20) with fresh evidence dominance over the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if contradiction_ratio stays >= 0.55 while fresh_evidence_count rises (mixed impulses likely to create chop)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if net sentiment continues drifting downward for 3+ hours while authority-confirmed macro (rates/USD) pressure strengthens."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": -7,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": -9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 6,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -12,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as 'silver'; analysis constrained to single-market output.",
 "No explicit per-record timestamp stream provided; hourly timeseries derived conservatively from trend/vip timestamps and freshness proxies (trend-level).",
 "Directional state held at neutral_mixed because admitted evidence is broad and fresh but does not map cleanly into a single price-direction thesis without counterfactual assumptions."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}