1. Snapshot
  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-03-25T20:50:27Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
  1. Signal Table | market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility | |---|---:|---|---:|---|---|---|---:|---:| | natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Supply-side / export-disruption risk in the LNG complex is contributing to upside pressure (risk-premium) for natural gas pricing over the next 6–24h. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 61 | | natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Isolated, single-source signals around LNG logistics / infrastructure narratives may cap immediate upside (insufficiently corroborated). | 38 | mixed | fading | 6h | false | 61 |

  2. Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260325T205027Z-natural_gas",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T20:50:27Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Supply-side / export-disruption risk in the LNG complex is contributing to upside pressure (risk-premium) for natural gas pricing over the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Qatar/LNG export disruption narrative surfacing with late-surge characteristics",
 "Infrastructure risk framing around Qatar LNG facilities",
 "Broader Gulf/Hormuz geopolitical-risk backdrop being repeatedly referenced"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 75,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Isolated, single-source signals around LNG logistics / infrastructure narratives may cap immediate upside (insufficiently corroborated).",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "VIP lane: single-source positive/benign logistics or infrastructure narratives (low corroboration)",
 "Echo-risk flags on multiple VIP items (single domain concentration)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 8,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 6,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "bucket_0_6h_count": 0,
 "bucket_6_24h_count": 5,
 "bucket_24_72h_count": 3,
 "bucket_over_72h_count": 3
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "geopolitical_headline_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Direction is largely anchored to geopolitical/LNG disruption risk-premium narratives that can reverse quickly on de-escalation."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "vip_echo_concentration",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source with echo-risk=true; treat as weak counterweight unless corroborated."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "arena_coverage_gap",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Limited explicit signal coverage in this packet for weather-driven demand, storage prints, and production outage fundamentals vs geopolitics/LNG focus."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Second-source confirmation of LNG export disruption / infrastructure outage risk, or additional fresh high-diversity records reinforcing the same upside thesis."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any fast-moving geopolitical headline sequence (Gulf/Qatar/Hormuz framing) that spikes contradiction ratio within 1\u20132 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh, independent de-escalation / \u2018disruption resolved\u2019 evidence appearing in >=2 sources inside 2 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional mass disperses (fresh-evidence count falls) while contradiction ratio rises above ~0.35."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -9,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 27,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -14,
 "acceleration_score": -21,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
 "Directional mapping assumes supply disruption / LNG export risk-premium tends to bias natural gas pricing upward; VIP single-source positives treated as weak counterweight.",
 "No explicit contradictions array provided in 5B; contradiction_ratio here reflects mixed-sign VIP singletons rather than strong opposing multi-source trend clusters.",
 "State_change set to new_bullish due to unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory provided)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}