- Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-03-25T20:50:27Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table | market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility | |---|---:|---|---:|---|---|---|---:|---:| | natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Supply-side / export-disruption risk in the LNG complex is contributing to upside pressure (risk-premium) for natural gas pricing over the next 6–24h. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 61 | | natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Isolated, single-source signals around LNG logistics / infrastructure narratives may cap immediate upside (insufficiently corroborated). | 38 | mixed | fading | 6h | false | 61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260325T205027Z-natural_gas",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T20:50:27Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Supply-side / export-disruption risk in the LNG complex is contributing to upside pressure (risk-premium) for natural gas pricing over the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Qatar/LNG export disruption narrative surfacing with late-surge characteristics",
"Infrastructure risk framing around Qatar LNG facilities",
"Broader Gulf/Hormuz geopolitical-risk backdrop being repeatedly referenced"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 75,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Isolated, single-source signals around LNG logistics / infrastructure narratives may cap immediate upside (insufficiently corroborated).",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"VIP lane: single-source positive/benign logistics or infrastructure narratives (low corroboration)",
"Echo-risk flags on multiple VIP items (single domain concentration)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 8,
"B": 1,
"C": 1,
"D": 6,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"bucket_0_6h_count": 0,
"bucket_6_24h_count": 5,
"bucket_24_72h_count": 3,
"bucket_over_72h_count": 3
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "geopolitical_headline_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Direction is largely anchored to geopolitical/LNG disruption risk-premium narratives that can reverse quickly on de-escalation."
},
{
"flag_id": "vip_echo_concentration",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source with echo-risk=true; treat as weak counterweight unless corroborated."
},
{
"flag_id": "arena_coverage_gap",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Limited explicit signal coverage in this packet for weather-driven demand, storage prints, and production outage fundamentals vs geopolitics/LNG focus."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Second-source confirmation of LNG export disruption / infrastructure outage risk, or additional fresh high-diversity records reinforcing the same upside thesis."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any fast-moving geopolitical headline sequence (Gulf/Qatar/Hormuz framing) that spikes contradiction ratio within 1\u20132 hours."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh, independent de-escalation / \u2018disruption resolved\u2019 evidence appearing in >=2 sources inside 2 hours."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional mass disperses (fresh-evidence count falls) while contradiction ratio rises above ~0.35."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -9,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 27,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -14,
"acceleration_score": -21,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
"Directional mapping assumes supply disruption / LNG export risk-premium tends to bias natural gas pricing upward; VIP single-source positives treated as weak counterweight.",
"No explicit contradictions array provided in 5B; contradiction_ratio here reflects mixed-sign VIP singletons rather than strong opposing multi-source trend clusters.",
"State_change set to new_bullish due to unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory provided)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}