Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NG-RECENCY_EVENT_DRIVEN
  • generated_at: 2026-03-25 06:40 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term LNG/geopolitical supply-risk premium is supportive of higher natural gas futures (upside skew) over the next 6–24 hours. 63 up accelerating 6h false 57
natural_gas B-NG-002 Directional bias remains upward but more fragile beyond the immediate impulse window as event risk can de-escalate quickly. 58 up stable 24h false 57

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "cis-natural_gas-20260325T064001Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T06:40:01Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Near-term LNG/geopolitical supply-risk premium is supportive of higher natural gas futures (upside skew) over the next 6\u201324 hours.", "probability_pct": 63, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "LNG export/disruption risk signals (Qatar/Ras Laffan cluster)", "Geopolitical escalation risk creating risk-premium bidding", "Broad multi-source reinforcement (including Tier-A outlets in the admitted bundle)" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Directional bias remains upward but more fragile beyond the immediate impulse window as event risk can de-escalate quickly.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Persistent (multi-day) disruption narrative with fresh reinforcement", "Limited observed counter-evidence in the admitted corpus" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 76, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_band": "high", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 110, "B": 10, "C": 2, "D": 95, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 2, "fresh_6_24h": 4, "fresh_24_72h": 1, "stale_over_72h_background": 2 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "RF-NG-RECENCY_EVENT_DRIVEN", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Signal is event-risk dominated (geopolitics/LNG disruption) and can fade quickly on de-escalation headlines." }, { "flag_id": "RF-NG-NARRATIVE_WHIPSAW", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Crowded, fast-moving geopolitical narratives can reverse intraday without fundamental confirmation." }, { "flag_id": "RF-NG-STALE_CONTEXT_OVERHANG", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "low", "detail": "Portions of the disruption thesis are persistent (multi-day) and require fresh reinforcement to stay price-relevant." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If fresh LNG-disruption/geopolitical escalation confirmations persist (next 6h) without meaningful counter-evidence." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "high", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If rapid headline flow continues (geopolitical + LNG logistics) and contradiction begins to rise." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If a credible de-escalation / restoration signal appears (fresh <=2h) from multiple independent sources or a hard operational invalidator." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 9, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 12, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 11, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 62, "bullish_pressure_score": 81, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 62, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 10, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 79, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 62, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 30, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 6, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.", "Admitted set emphasises LNG/natural-gas-linked disruptions (Qatar/Ras Laffan/LNG export/logistics). Broader geopolitical/energy-security items were not force-mapped.", "No explicit opposing/counter-direction evidence was present in the admitted corpus (contradictions array empty). Reversal risk is therefore event-driven rather than counter-signal-driven.", "Timeseries values are conservative shape estimates derived from admitted trend temporal profiles and recency/velocity hints; per-record timestamp granularity was not available in this message payload." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }