Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-MIXED-001
  • generated_at: 2026-03-25T23:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium LITH-6H-01 In the next 6 hours, lithium futures are more likely to be rangebound-to-slightly higher as EV adoption and battery buildout demand signals remain net-supportive, but supply/recycling narratives cap upside. 56 mixed stable 6h false 66
lithium LITH-24H-02 Over the next 24 hours, lithium upside is likely constrained by supply-side improvement signals (extraction technology progress) and recycling momentum, increasing the probability of mean-reversion / capped rallies. 52 flat accelerating 24h false 66
lithium LITH-24H-03 A volatility tail-risk exists over the next 24 hours if new, corroborated China/Chile regulatory constraints emerge (tightening supply), but current evidence is seed-level / incomplete and should be treated as fragile. 35 up fading 24h false 66

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260325T233000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T23:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "LITH-6H-01",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "In the next 6 hours, lithium futures are more likely to be rangebound-to-slightly higher as EV adoption and battery buildout demand signals remain net-supportive, but supply/recycling narratives cap upside.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption / demand-side signal breadth (multiple trends with fresh updates)",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion / downstream buildout",
 "Policy/industry momentum signals in the EV/battery ecosystem"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "LITH-24H-02",
 "LITH-24H-03"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 53,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "LITH-24H-02",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, lithium upside is likely constrained by supply-side improvement signals (extraction technology progress) and recycling momentum, increasing the probability of mean-reversion / capped rallies.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Lithium extraction advancement signals (supply expansion pressure)",
 "Battery recycling momentum (secondary supply / demand-offset potential)",
 "Mixed regulatory narratives (directional effect uncertain)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "LITH-6H-01"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "LITH-24H-03",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "A volatility tail-risk exists over the next 24 hours if new, corroborated China/Chile regulatory constraints emerge (tightening supply), but current evidence is seed-level / incomplete and should be treated as fragile.",
 "probability_pct": 35,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Regulatory tightening seed signals (unmaterialised evidence)",
 "Chile regulation narrative (direction ambiguous without details)",
 "Potential customs / compliance frictions"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "LITH-24H-02"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 58,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "LITH-6H-01",
 "LITH-24H-02",
 "LITH-24H-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 145,
 "B": 9,
 "C": 25,
 "D": 235,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals": 8,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals": 2,
 "stale_24_72h_signals": 2,
 "stale_gt_72h_signals": 1,
 "notes": [
 "Freshness mix is inferred from trend/vip/risk timestamps provided; evidence records are not fully materialised in this payload."
 ]
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-MIXED-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "type": "contradiction_spike",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Demand-supportive EV/battery buildout signals compete with supply/recycling narratives, reducing directional clarity."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SEED-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "type": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Late-day risk anomalies include seed-level items with unmaterialised evidence, raising uncertainty rather than adding confirmatory direction."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-WHIPSAW-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "High volume of adjacent EV ecosystem headlines can move sentiment while remaining only indirectly coupled to lithium futures pricing."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain neutral while directional score stays within [-20,+20] and contradiction remains elevated (mixed demand vs supply drivers)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if additional corroborated regulatory/tariff/customs items arrive and move the directional score beyond ±120 within a 2–4h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh opposing evidence emerges within ≤2h that materially flips net sentiment (kill-switch criteria approach)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Consider a long-bias watch only if fresh evidence concentrates on supply tightening (regulatory constraints) and contradiction ratio falls below ~0.30."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "watch_short_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Consider a short-bias watch only if supply expansion/recycling narratives dominate with fresh corroboration and directional score trends below -20."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
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 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 24,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as lithium.",
 "Net direction suppressed to neutral_mixed due to competing demand (EV/battery buildout) vs supply/recycling pressures and elevated contradiction.",
 "No prior state memory provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior baseline."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}