Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-MIXED-001
- generated_at: 2026-03-25T23:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
LITH-6H-01 |
In the next 6 hours, lithium futures are more likely to be rangebound-to-slightly higher as EV adoption and battery buildout demand signals remain net-supportive, but supply/recycling narratives cap upside. |
56 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
66 |
| lithium |
LITH-24H-02 |
Over the next 24 hours, lithium upside is likely constrained by supply-side improvement signals (extraction technology progress) and recycling momentum, increasing the probability of mean-reversion / capped rallies. |
52 |
flat |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
66 |
| lithium |
LITH-24H-03 |
A volatility tail-risk exists over the next 24 hours if new, corroborated China/Chile regulatory constraints emerge (tightening supply), but current evidence is seed-level / incomplete and should be treated as fragile. |
35 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
66 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260325T233000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T23:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "LITH-6H-01",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "In the next 6 hours, lithium futures are more likely to be rangebound-to-slightly higher as EV adoption and battery buildout demand signals remain net-supportive, but supply/recycling narratives cap upside.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption / demand-side signal breadth (multiple trends with fresh updates)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion / downstream buildout",
"Policy/industry momentum signals in the EV/battery ecosystem"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"LITH-24H-02",
"LITH-24H-03"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 53,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "LITH-24H-02",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, lithium upside is likely constrained by supply-side improvement signals (extraction technology progress) and recycling momentum, increasing the probability of mean-reversion / capped rallies.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Lithium extraction advancement signals (supply expansion pressure)",
"Battery recycling momentum (secondary supply / demand-offset potential)",
"Mixed regulatory narratives (directional effect uncertain)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"LITH-6H-01"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "LITH-24H-03",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "A volatility tail-risk exists over the next 24 hours if new, corroborated China/Chile regulatory constraints emerge (tightening supply), but current evidence is seed-level / incomplete and should be treated as fragile.",
"probability_pct": 35,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Regulatory tightening seed signals (unmaterialised evidence)",
"Chile regulation narrative (direction ambiguous without details)",
"Potential customs / compliance frictions"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"LITH-24H-02"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 58,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"LITH-6H-01",
"LITH-24H-02",
"LITH-24H-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 145,
"B": 9,
"C": 25,
"D": 235,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals": 8,
"fresh_6_24h_signals": 2,
"stale_24_72h_signals": 2,
"stale_gt_72h_signals": 1,
"notes": [
"Freshness mix is inferred from trend/vip/risk timestamps provided; evidence records are not fully materialised in this payload."
]
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-MIXED-001",
"market": "lithium",
"type": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Demand-supportive EV/battery buildout signals compete with supply/recycling narratives, reducing directional clarity."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-SEED-002",
"market": "lithium",
"type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Late-day risk anomalies include seed-level items with unmaterialised evidence, raising uncertainty rather than adding confirmatory direction."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-WHIPSAW-003",
"market": "lithium",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "High volume of adjacent EV ecosystem headlines can move sentiment while remaining only indirectly coupled to lithium futures pricing."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Remain neutral while directional score stays within [-20,+20] and contradiction remains elevated (mixed demand vs supply drivers)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if additional corroborated regulatory/tariff/customs items arrive and move the directional score beyond ±120 within a 2–4h window."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh opposing evidence emerges within ≤2h that materially flips net sentiment (kill-switch criteria approach)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Consider a long-bias watch only if fresh evidence concentrates on supply tightening (regulatory constraints) and contradiction ratio falls below ~0.30."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Consider a short-bias watch only if supply expansion/recycling narratives dominate with fresh corroboration and directional score trends below -20."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-26T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 24,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as lithium.",
"Net direction suppressed to neutral_mixed due to competing demand (EV/battery buildout) vs supply/recycling pressures and elevated contradiction.",
"No prior state memory provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}