- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-25T07:15:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-001 |
Near-term lithium pricing bias remains mixed because demand-positive EV adoption signals are counterbalanced by supply-side and substitution/recycling narratives that can cap upside. |
58 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
63 |
| lithium |
B-LI-002 |
Upside attempts in lithium over the next 24h are more likely to be fragile than trend-confirmed unless fresh, commodity-specific tightening evidence appears (policy constraint, project disruption, or verified export/production restriction). |
62 |
flat |
fading |
24h |
false |
63 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_lithium_2026-03-25T07:15:00Z_v1",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T07:15:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium pricing bias remains mixed because demand-positive EV adoption signals are counterbalanced by supply-side and substitution/recycling narratives that can cap upside.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption / OEM ramp headlines (demand-supportive)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives (can be demand-supportive, but can also pull forward supply response)",
"Battery recycling narrative (potential medium-term primary demand displacement)",
"Critical-mineral policy / supply-chain initiatives (directionally ambiguous for spot vs forward price)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If a clear, fresh supply-tightening regulatory action is confirmed, mixed bias may break bullish quickly",
"If fresh evidence shows demand slowdown (deliveries/registrations misses), mixed bias may break bearish quickly"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Upside attempts in lithium over the next 24h are more likely to be fragile than trend-confirmed unless fresh, commodity-specific tightening evidence appears (policy constraint, project disruption, or verified export/production restriction).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Signal mix dominated by indirect demand narratives rather than direct lithium supply/price prints",
"Non-trivial presence of recycling / capacity-expansion themes"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Confirmed, near-term supply disruption in a major producing/refining region",
"Broad, fresh, multi-source acceleration in EV/battery demand with tight inventory indications"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 62,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 70,
"B": 11,
"C": 24,
"D": 177,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_count": 3,
"fresh_6_24h_count": 4,
"mid_24_72h_count": 2,
"stale_gt_72h_count": 5
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A meaningful share of admitted drivers are >72h old and are thematic (EV/policy/tech) rather than commodity-price specific; direction is capped."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Mixture of demand-supportive EV adoption narratives and potentially price-capping recycling/capacity-expansion narratives increases chop risk."
},
{
"flag": "indirect_driver_bias",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Most evidence relates to EV/battery ecosystem rather than explicit lithium spot/futures tightness; conviction reduced."
},
{
"flag": "regulatory_uncertainty_seed",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Seed-level regulatory items (unmaterialised evidence) add tail-risk but do not qualify as late-breaking invalidation."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral stance while directional score stays between -20 and +20 and no new commodity-specific catalyst confirms tightening/loosening."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if fresh (<=2h) opposing evidence appears from 2+ independent records or a single hard policy/supply invalidator."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Increase volatility monitoring if contradiction rises materially (mixed signals accelerate within the last 6h buckets)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
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"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 18,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; counterevidence score inferred from supply-easing themes (recycling/capacity expansion) vs demand-strength themes (EV adoption).",
"Prior state not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown_prior context."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}