Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-25T23:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-01 Geopolitical-risk backdrop (Middle East conflict cluster) is a supportive macro tailwind for gold, but the bulk of corroborated evidence in the admitted corpus is stale (>72h), limiting near-term directional conviction. 54 up fading 24h false 68
gold B-GOLD-02 Macro/real-rate uncertainty signals exist in the corpus (policy/yield narratives), which can pressure gold if real yields rise; however, these signals are also predominantly stale, so they function as a background counterweight rather than a fresh bearish driver. 50 down fading 24h false 68
gold B-GOLD-03 A very recent, thinly-supported risk-anomaly ping (seed-level, limited evidence materialisation) could spark a short-lived safe-haven bid, but it is not strong enough alone to move the overall state out of neutral. 52 mixed accelerating 6h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-03-25T23:30:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T23:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-01",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Geopolitical-risk backdrop (Middle East conflict cluster) is a supportive macro tailwind for gold, but the bulk of corroborated evidence in the admitted corpus is stale (>72h), limiting near-term directional conviction.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk",
 "risk_off_positioning"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-GOLD-02"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-02",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Macro/real-rate uncertainty signals exist in the corpus (policy/yield narratives), which can pressure gold if real yields rise; however, these signals are also predominantly stale, so they function as a background counterweight rather than a fresh bearish driver.",
 "probability_pct": 50,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-GOLD-01"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-03",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "A very recent, thinly-supported risk-anomaly ping (seed-level, limited evidence materialisation) could spark a short-lived safe-haven bid, but it is not strong enough alone to move the overall state out of neutral.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 38,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-01",
 "B-GOLD-02",
 "B-GOLD-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 2,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_24h_evidence_like_items": 1,
 "stale_over_72h_evidence_like_items": 15,
 "notes": "Most admitted trend/VIP/risk items are last-updated around 2026-03-09; one seed-level risk anomaly is dated 2026-03-25 but lacks materialised evidence."
 },
 "regime_state": "rangebound"
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Dominant supportive/counter drivers are supported mainly by evidence older than 72h; stale suppression applied."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_recent_window",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Very limited materialised evidence in the last 24h for gold-specific drivers; fresh window does not meet robust directional requirements."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A thin, late risk ping could temporarily lift safe-haven tone but is fragile without confirmation; increases short-horizon whipsaw risk."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while freshness_confidence remains low and conviction_score stays < 55."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate watch if 2+ independent, materialised high-authority updates arrive within 6h and contradiction_ratio rises (headline-driven volatility risk)."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Consider a long-bias watch label only if fresh geopolitical escalation is corroborated by multiple independent sources and persists across \u22652 hourly buckets (directional_score_signed sustained \u2265 +25) while counterevidence remains low."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh macro/real-rate evidence turns decisively against gold (directional_score_signed \u2264 -25) with rising contradiction, treat as reversal-risk regime."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:30:00Z",
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:30:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:30:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:30:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T10:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T11:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T12:30:00Z",
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T13:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T14:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T15:30:00Z",
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 25,
 "acceleration_score": 25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 25,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 25,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 15,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly: gold.",
 "Most admitted supportive/counter drivers are stale (>72h; newest cluster updates around 2026-03-09), so stale suppression capped conviction and set momentum to weakening.",
 "One late risk-anomaly item is timestamped 2026-03-25 but appears seed-level with limited evidence materialisation; treated as a fragile, short-horizon tilt only (does not override neutral state).",
 "State_change set to 'unchanged' due to unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory provided in input)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}