Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
  • generated_at: 2026-03-25T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-1 Gold has weak/fragile upside bias only from stale, low-corroboration signals around trade/traceability disruption; not enough fresh confirmation to assert a directional move. 52 mixed fading 24h false 78
gold B-GOLD-2 ETF-proxy chatter (GLD-linked) is present but single-point/low-context and stale; treat as noise until corroborated by additional fresh sources. 50 flat fading 6h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260325T070000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Gold futures", "market_code": "gold" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 34, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 8, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "gold", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "gold" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-GOLD-1", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold has weak/fragile upside bias only from stale, low-corroboration signals around trade/traceability disruption; not enough fresh confirmation to assert a directional move.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "physical_gold_demand", "central_bank_flows" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Insufficient fresh evidence in the last 72h (stale suppression)" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 5, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-GOLD-2", "market": "gold", "claim": "ETF-proxy chatter (GLD-linked) is present but single-point/low-context and stale; treat as noise until corroborated by additional fresh sources.", "probability_pct": 50, "direction": "flat", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "etf_investment_flows", "usd_strength" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Singleton / low-context signal and outside the recency window" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 22, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "gold", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 22, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 8, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "low", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-GOLD-1", "B-GOLD-2" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0, "D": 1, "U": 1 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 0, "fresh_24_72h": 0, "stale_over_72h": 2 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "data_sparsity", "severity": "high", "detail": "Gold-mapped admitted evidence count below threshold; direction suppressed to neutral_mixed." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "high", "detail": "Gold-relevant signals are >72h old; recency weighting strongly downweighted them." }, { "flag": "echo_concentration_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Admitted gold signals include singleton/low-diversity items; low robustness." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action_label": "stay_flat", "market": "gold", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Remain neutral while gold-mapped fresh evidence count < 3 or freshness_confidence != high." }, { "action_label": "volatility_watch", "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to volatility watch if a fresh (<=24h) geopolitics/real-rates catalyst explicitly tied to gold appears from 2+ independent sources." }, { "action_label": "reversal_watch", "market": "gold", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Activate only if a clear directional view emerges and then faces fresh opposing evidence within 2h (late-breaking invalidation sentinel)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "gold" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": 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"fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 0, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 0, "cross_domain_merges": 0, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": true, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly to gold.", "Gold-mapped evidence primarily from VIP outliers (gold trade disruption; GLD proxy) and is stale (>72h).", "Most trend items appear geopolitical/energy-linked and could not be confidently alias-mapped to the gold canonical market; treated as unmapped for 6B single-market synthesis.", "State_change set to unchanged due to unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory provided)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }