- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: policy_headline_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-03-25T22:32:02Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-001 |
Energy-transition and grid modernisation narratives are providing persistent upside demand pressure for copper (near-term sentiment tailwind). |
63 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
48 |
| copper |
B-copper-002 |
Trade-policy and strategic-minerals framing is increasing the likelihood of short-horizon price whipsaws (headline-driven volatility), but net impulse is still mildly supportive via supply-security rhetoric. |
58 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
48 |
| copper |
B-copper-003 |
Producer/supply-chain coverage (Chile/major miners) is skewing towards a tighter supply narrative, supporting an upside bias unless negated by fresh demand weakness signals. |
60 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
48 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-copper-20260325T223202Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T22:32:02Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Energy-transition and grid modernisation narratives are providing persistent upside demand pressure for copper (near-term sentiment tailwind).",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy and strategic-minerals framing is increasing the likelihood of short-horizon price whipsaws (headline-driven volatility), but net impulse is still mildly supportive via supply-security rhetoric.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"inventory_exchange_stocks"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Producer/supply-chain coverage (Chile/major miners) is skewing towards a tighter supply narrative, supporting an upside bias unless negated by fresh demand weakness signals.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002",
"B-copper-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 121,
"B": 14,
"C": 11,
"D": 140,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"newest_observed_signal_utc": "2026-03-25T22:32:02Z",
"oldest_observed_signal_utc": "2026-01-22T16:51:51Z",
"recency_distribution_note": "Per-record timestamp distribution not available in input; freshness assessed from trend-level newest timestamps and temporal profiles."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Trade-policy/strategic-minerals narratives are active and can flip intraday sentiment without introducing formal contradiction records."
},
{
"flag": "freshness_resolution_limited",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Bucketed timeseries constructed from trend-level recency proxies due to missing per-record timing; conviction and momentum are therefore conservatively capped."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If the next 6h maintains bullish directional_score_signed >= +20 with contradiction_ratio <= 0.15 and no late-breaking opposing cluster emerges."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If policy/trade narratives spike and contradiction_ratio rises >= 0.25 within any 1h bucket."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If two or more independent, fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear and net directional_score_signed falls below +10."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T07:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T08:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T08:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T09:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T09:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T10:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T10:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T11:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T11:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T12:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T12:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T13:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T13:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T14:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T14:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T15:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:32:02Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:32:02Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 14,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: copper.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided in input; counterevidence score treated as low by default.",
"Timeseries buckets are conservative approximations derived from trend-level recency/heat metadata (per-record intraday timing not available)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}