Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: background_narrative_overhang (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-25 07:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B1-copper-demand-energy-transition | Near-term demand narrative remains supportive: grid modernisation + EV adoption themes contribute to a net-positive copper demand bias over next 24h. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 44 |
| copper | B2-copper-policy-supply-chain | Trade-policy and strategic-minerals framing keeps copper supply-chain risk premia elevated, mildly skewing expectations to upside over next 6–24h. | 58 | up | fading | 6h | false | 44 |
| copper | B3-copper-inventory-microstructure-unclear | Inventory/exchange-stocks and immediate physical tightness signals are not sufficiently resolved to confidently anchor a strong short-horizon directional move. | 55 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260325T070000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 73,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1-copper-demand-energy-transition",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term demand narrative remains supportive: grid modernisation + EV adoption themes are contributing to a net-positive copper demand bias over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2-copper-policy-supply-chain",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy and strategic-minerals framing is keeping copper supply-chain risk premia elevated, mildly skewing expectations to upside rather than downside in the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"mine_supply_disruption"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3-copper-inventory-microstructure-unclear",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Inventory/exchange-stocks and immediate physical tightness signals are not sufficiently resolved in the admitted corpus to confidently anchor a strong short-horizon directional move.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"inventory_exchange_stocks"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 73,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1-copper-demand-energy-transition",
"B2-copper-policy-supply-chain",
"B3-copper-inventory-microstructure-unclear"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 137,
"B": 21,
"C": 10,
"D": 182,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": "low_to_moderate",
"fresh_6_24h": "moderate",
"stale_24_72h": "moderate",
"stale_over_72h": "high"
},
"regime_state": "loosening"
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "background_narrative_overhang",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A large share of supportive signals are medium/long-horizon narratives (energy transition, policy posture). Short-horizon (6h) price sensitivity may be lower without a discrete catalyst."
},
{
"flag_id": "inventory_signal_gap",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Inventory/exchange-stocks arena is present in scope but not strongly evidenced in the admitted signal set; increases uncertainty for 6h directionality."
},
{
"flag_id": "policy_headline_volatility",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Trade-policy and strategic-minerals themes can produce headline-driven whipsaws even when the broader narrative is bullish."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source confirmation appears in industrial demand / energy-transition demand signals without concurrent opposing evidence."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy/strategic minerals signals accelerate (fresh evidence count rises) or contradiction ratio spikes within the next 2\u20136h."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If inventory/exchange-stocks remains unconfirmed and the corpus stays narrative-heavy with no discrete catalyst."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing cluster (>=2 independent records within 2h) emerges indicating demand slowdown or supply easing."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
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{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
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{
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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
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"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
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"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
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"acceleration_score": 2,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
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"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
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"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: copper only.",
"No explicit contradictions/risk_anomalies provided in admitted corpus; reversal sentinel not triggered.",
"Prior-state not provided to 6B; state_change left as 'unchanged' with unknown_prior context."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}