Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: background_narrative_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-25 07:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1-copper-demand-energy-transition Near-term demand narrative remains supportive: grid modernisation + EV adoption themes contribute to a net-positive copper demand bias over next 24h. 62 up stable 24h false 44
copper B2-copper-policy-supply-chain Trade-policy and strategic-minerals framing keeps copper supply-chain risk premia elevated, mildly skewing expectations to upside over next 6–24h. 58 up fading 6h false 44
copper B3-copper-inventory-microstructure-unclear Inventory/exchange-stocks and immediate physical tightness signals are not sufficiently resolved to confidently anchor a strong short-horizon directional move. 55 mixed stable 6h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260325T070000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 73,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1-copper-demand-energy-transition",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term demand narrative remains supportive: grid modernisation + EV adoption themes are contributing to a net-positive copper demand bias over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2-copper-policy-supply-chain",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy and strategic-minerals framing is keeping copper supply-chain risk premia elevated, mildly skewing expectations to upside rather than downside in the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "mine_supply_disruption"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3-copper-inventory-microstructure-unclear",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Inventory/exchange-stocks and immediate physical tightness signals are not sufficiently resolved in the admitted corpus to confidently anchor a strong short-horizon directional move.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 73,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1-copper-demand-energy-transition",
 "B2-copper-policy-supply-chain",
 "B3-copper-inventory-microstructure-unclear"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 137,
 "B": 21,
 "C": 10,
 "D": 182,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": "low_to_moderate",
 "fresh_6_24h": "moderate",
 "stale_24_72h": "moderate",
 "stale_over_72h": "high"
 },
 "regime_state": "loosening"
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "background_narrative_overhang",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "A large share of supportive signals are medium/long-horizon narratives (energy transition, policy posture). Short-horizon (6h) price sensitivity may be lower without a discrete catalyst."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "inventory_signal_gap",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Inventory/exchange-stocks arena is present in scope but not strongly evidenced in the admitted signal set; increases uncertainty for 6h directionality."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "policy_headline_volatility",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Trade-policy and strategic-minerals themes can produce headline-driven whipsaws even when the broader narrative is bullish."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source confirmation appears in industrial demand / energy-transition demand signals without concurrent opposing evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy/strategic minerals signals accelerate (fresh evidence count rises) or contradiction ratio spikes within the next 2\u20136h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If inventory/exchange-stocks remains unconfirmed and the corpus stays narrative-heavy with no discrete catalyst."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing cluster (>=2 independent records within 2h) emerges indicating demand slowdown or supply easing."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 23,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: copper only.",
 "No explicit contradictions/risk_anomalies provided in admitted corpus; reversal sentinel not triggered.",
 "Prior-state not provided to 6B; state_change left as 'unchanged' with unknown_prior context."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}