- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-contradiction-mixed
- generated_at: 2026-03-25T23:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bearish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-1 |
Coffee futures show a near-term downside bias (next 6–24h) as negative macro/logistics/regulatory narratives dominate the admitted signal set. |
58 |
down |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-2 |
Upside risk remains meaningful (next 6–24h) due to demand/consumption narratives and Brazil-linked policy/supply-chain positives within the admitted set. |
42 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS6B_coffee_20260325T230000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bearish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures show a near-term downside bias (next 6\u201324h) as negative macro/logistics/regulatory narratives dominate the admitted signal set.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"maritime transport regulation/logistics friction",
"trade/logistics disruption narratives affecting coffee-linked supply chains",
"broad negative macro risk tone in admitted corpus"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-2"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Upside risk remains meaningful (next 6\u201324h) due to demand/consumption narratives and Brazil-linked policy/supply-chain positives within the admitted set.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"coffee consumption/health & wellness narrative support",
"Brazil-linked policy / coffee commerce positives",
"brand-channel activity (Starbucks / instant coffee industry signals)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-1"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bearish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bearish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-1",
"B-coffee-2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 174,
"B": 13,
"C": 2,
"D": 321,
"U": 0,
"note": "Approximate aggregate from admitted trend evidence bundles (not de-duplicated across trends)."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signal_items": 12,
"fresh_6_24h_signal_items": 0,
"stale_gt_24h_signal_items": 0,
"note": "Bucketed using each admitted item's latest available recency proxy timestamp."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-contradiction-mixed",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Material bullish counter-mass exists alongside bearish mass (mixed corpus), increasing whipsaw/reversal sensitivity."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-macro-linkage-ambiguity",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Several admitted signals are macro/logistics narratives with indirect coffee linkage; directional mapping may be less price-explicit than dedicated crop/yield signals."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-timeseries-sparsity",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Last-24h timeseries is concentrated into a small number of buckets (signal clustering), elevating short-horizon instability risk."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Bearish pressure persists for 2+ consecutive hourly buckets with contradiction_ratio <= 0.35."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Net sentiment flips to bullish (directional_score_signed >= +20) in a fresh (<=6h) bucket with >=3 fresh evidence items."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction_ratio rises above 0.50 while conviction_score_0_100 remains below 60."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 across the next 3 hourly buckets (rangebound confirmation)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 52,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.484,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 63,
"net_sentiment_score": -26,
"velocity_score": -26,
"acceleration_score": -29,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.373,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -26,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 26,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Directional sign is inferred from admitted trend sentiment polarity due to missing explicit per-trend price-direction fields in provided 5B payload.",
"High recency concentration in the final hours increases short-horizon instability sensitivity despite overall fresh evidence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}