Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: crude_oil
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-03-25 18:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude-001 Brent crude oil futures face near-term upward pressure from elevated Middle East / Iran-linked maritime chokepoint and security-risk narratives (shipping disruption risk premium). 66 up accelerating 6h false 56
crude_oil B-crude-002 Over a 24h window, Brent crude oil futures remain biased upward, but are vulnerable to fast de-escalation headline reversals (risk premium is fragile). 60 up stable 24h false 56

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap-20260325T180000Z-6B-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Brent crude oil futures face near-term upward pressure from elevated Middle East / Iran-linked maritime chokepoint and security-risk narratives (shipping disruption risk premium).",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical disruption: Iran / Strait of Hormuz / maritime logistics disruption",
 "Security incidents & escalation headlines (regional)",
 "Risk-premium repricing from multi-source, fast-moving coverage"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over a 24h window, Brent crude oil futures remain biased upward, but are vulnerable to fast de-escalation headline reversals (risk premium is fragile).",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Persistence of chokepoint and escalation themes across diverse sources",
 "Follow-through risk: additional incidents, policy responses, or shipping constraints",
 "Macro-policy cross-currents are secondary versus event risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Potential rapid de-escalation / clarification headlines (not yet present in admitted corpus)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 86,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude-001",
 "B-crude-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 256,
 "B": 12,
 "C": 8,
 "D": 247,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 5,
 "signals_6_24h": 7,
 "signals_24_72h": 0,
 "signals_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Directional bias is dominated by fast-moving geopolitical/shipping-risk headlines; reversal can occur quickly on de-escalation or clarification."
 },
 {
 "flag": "event_risk_volatility",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "High headline velocity (spike/late-surge patterns) implies elevated intraday volatility even without explicit counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_quality_tail_present",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "VIP/risk lanes include several single-source items (echo-risk true). They are down-weighted but add noise potential."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional multi-source escalation/chokepoint disruption updates inside the next 6h that reinforce supply-risk premium."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Any fresh (<=2h) credible de-escalation/stand-down/route-normalisation headline cluster that materially increases opposing evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises (mixed direction narratives) while headline volume remains high, indicating unstable regime."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 16,
 "acceleration_score": 14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 78,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 78,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 74,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -4,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradictory trend objects were provided (contradictions[] empty); reversal risk is driven by event-driven fragility rather than in-corpus counterevidence.",
 "VIP/risk-anomaly single-source signals were down-weighted and treated as noise-sensitive add-ons."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}