Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: crude_oil
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-03-25 18:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-001 |
Brent crude oil futures face near-term upward pressure from elevated Middle East / Iran-linked maritime chokepoint and security-risk narratives (shipping disruption risk premium). |
66 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
56 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-002 |
Over a 24h window, Brent crude oil futures remain biased upward, but are vulnerable to fast de-escalation headline reversals (risk premium is fragile). |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap-20260325T180000Z-6B-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Brent crude oil futures face near-term upward pressure from elevated Middle East / Iran-linked maritime chokepoint and security-risk narratives (shipping disruption risk premium).",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical disruption: Iran / Strait of Hormuz / maritime logistics disruption",
"Security incidents & escalation headlines (regional)",
"Risk-premium repricing from multi-source, fast-moving coverage"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over a 24h window, Brent crude oil futures remain biased upward, but are vulnerable to fast de-escalation headline reversals (risk premium is fragile).",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Persistence of chokepoint and escalation themes across diverse sources",
"Follow-through risk: additional incidents, policy responses, or shipping constraints",
"Macro-policy cross-currents are secondary versus event risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Potential rapid de-escalation / clarification headlines (not yet present in admitted corpus)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 86,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude-001",
"B-crude-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 256,
"B": 12,
"C": 8,
"D": 247,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 5,
"signals_6_24h": 7,
"signals_24_72h": 0,
"signals_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "geopolitical_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Directional bias is dominated by fast-moving geopolitical/shipping-risk headlines; reversal can occur quickly on de-escalation or clarification."
},
{
"flag": "event_risk_volatility",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "High headline velocity (spike/late-surge patterns) implies elevated intraday volatility even without explicit counterevidence."
},
{
"flag": "low_quality_tail_present",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "VIP/risk lanes include several single-source items (echo-risk true). They are down-weighted but add noise potential."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Additional multi-source escalation/chokepoint disruption updates inside the next 6h that reinforce supply-risk premium."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Any fresh (<=2h) credible de-escalation/stand-down/route-normalisation headline cluster that materially increases opposing evidence."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises (mixed direction narratives) while headline volume remains high, indicating unstable regime."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 16,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 78,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 78,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 74,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -4,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradictory trend objects were provided (contradictions[] empty); reversal risk is driven by event-driven fragility rather than in-corpus counterevidence.",
"VIP/risk-anomaly single-source signals were down-weighted and treated as noise-sensitive add-ons."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}