Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_premium_volatility (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-25 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CRUDE-001 Geopolitical escalation risk (Iran/Israel + shipping/chokepoint concerns) is sustaining an oil risk premium, biasing Brent upward over the next 6h–24h. 63 up stable 24h false 42
crude_oil B-CRUDE-002 Refinery outages / run constraints are a near-term demand drag for crude, partially offsetting the geopolitical bid. 41 down fading 6h false 42
crude_oil B-CRUDE-003 Macro headwinds (USD strength / rates / growth sensitivity) are applying mild downward pressure on crude risk appetite. 37 down stable 24h false 42

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260325T120000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CRUDE-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical escalation risk (Iran/Israel + shipping/chokepoint concerns) is sustaining an oil risk premium, biasing Brent upward over the next 6h\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "critical_shipping_routes_maritime_chokepoints",
 "supply_risk_premium_repricing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CRUDE-002",
 "B-CRUDE-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CRUDE-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Refinery outages / run constraints are a near-term demand drag for crude, partially offsetting the geopolitical bid.",
 "probability_pct": 41,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "refining_constraints",
 "near_term_crude_throughput_reduction"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CRUDE-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CRUDE-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro headwinds (USD strength / rates / growth sensitivity) are applying mild downward pressure on crude risk appetite.",
 "probability_pct": 37,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro_demand",
 "usd_fx_headwind",
 "rates_policy_sensitivity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CRUDE-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 79,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CRUDE-001",
 "B-CRUDE-002",
 "B-CRUDE-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 13,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 14,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "window_0_6h": 11,
 "window_6_24h": 14,
 "window_24_72h": 2,
 "window_gt_72h": 0,
 "latest_material_update_age_hours_est": 5.0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_premium_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Geopolitical-driven upside bias is strong but prone to abrupt repricing on de-escalation headlines."
 },
 {
 "flag": "macro_headwind_overlay",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "USD/rates/growth sensitivity provides genuine counter-pressure; contributes to medium reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "refinery_run_uncertainty",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Refinery outage narratives can flip crude direction short-term (demand drag vs product tightness)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "prior_state_unavailable",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' conservatively."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Geopolitical/shipping-risk cluster remains dominant without fresh de-escalation signals."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Macro + refinery-demand signals intensify (contradiction rises) or geopolitical impulse cools."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Rapid headline cadence in geopolitics/shipping routes causes intraday sentiment swings."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 18,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "No explicit contradictions object provided; counter-pressure inferred from mixed driver arenas (refinery constraints + macro vs geopolitical supply risk).",
 "No prior market state provided; state_change set conservatively to 'unchanged'.",
 "Timeseries is a conservative bucketisation using available timestamps/temporal profiles (not a price-based reconstruction).",
 "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no opposing <=2h signals available in provided corpus)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}