Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_premium_volatility (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-25 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-CRUDE-001 | Geopolitical escalation risk (Iran/Israel + shipping/chokepoint concerns) is sustaining an oil risk premium, biasing Brent upward over the next 6h–24h. | 63 | up | stable | 24h | false | 42 |
| crude_oil | B-CRUDE-002 | Refinery outages / run constraints are a near-term demand drag for crude, partially offsetting the geopolitical bid. | 41 | down | fading | 6h | false | 42 |
| crude_oil | B-CRUDE-003 | Macro headwinds (USD strength / rates / growth sensitivity) are applying mild downward pressure on crude risk appetite. | 37 | down | stable | 24h | false | 42 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260325T120000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation risk (Iran/Israel + shipping/chokepoint concerns) is sustaining an oil risk premium, biasing Brent upward over the next 6h\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"critical_shipping_routes_maritime_chokepoints",
"supply_risk_premium_repricing"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CRUDE-002",
"B-CRUDE-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Refinery outages / run constraints are a near-term demand drag for crude, partially offsetting the geopolitical bid.",
"probability_pct": 41,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"refining_constraints",
"near_term_crude_throughput_reduction"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CRUDE-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro headwinds (USD strength / rates / growth sensitivity) are applying mild downward pressure on crude risk appetite.",
"probability_pct": 37,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand",
"usd_fx_headwind",
"rates_policy_sensitivity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CRUDE-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 79,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CRUDE-001",
"B-CRUDE-002",
"B-CRUDE-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 13,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 14,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"window_0_6h": 11,
"window_6_24h": 14,
"window_24_72h": 2,
"window_gt_72h": 0,
"latest_material_update_age_hours_est": 5.0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "geopolitical_premium_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Geopolitical-driven upside bias is strong but prone to abrupt repricing on de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"flag": "macro_headwind_overlay",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "USD/rates/growth sensitivity provides genuine counter-pressure; contributes to medium reversal risk."
},
{
"flag": "refinery_run_uncertainty",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Refinery outage narratives can flip crude direction short-term (demand drag vs product tightness)."
},
{
"flag": "prior_state_unavailable",
"severity": "low",
"details": "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' conservatively."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Geopolitical/shipping-risk cluster remains dominant without fresh de-escalation signals."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Macro + refinery-demand signals intensify (contradiction rises) or geopolitical impulse cools."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Rapid headline cadence in geopolitics/shipping routes causes intraday sentiment swings."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 36,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 18,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No explicit contradictions object provided; counter-pressure inferred from mixed driver arenas (refinery constraints + macro vs geopolitical supply risk).",
"No prior market state provided; state_change set conservatively to 'unchanged'.",
"Timeseries is a conservative bucketisation using available timestamps/temporal profiles (not a price-based reconstruction).",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no opposing <=2h signals available in provided corpus)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}