Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_sensitivity
  • generated_at: 2026-03-24T22:05:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Geopolitical escalation and LNG supply-security headlines are adding near-term risk premium to gas/LNG, biasing natural gas futures upward. 62 up accelerating 6h false 58
natural_gas B-NG-002 Middle East LNG supply-disruption narratives (Qatar/Ras Laffan focus) are sustaining bullish skew for natural gas futures over the next 24 hours via perceived supply-chain fragility. 60 up stable 24h false 58
natural_gas B-NG-003 The bullish risk-premium thesis is fragile and could fade quickly if headline intensity decelerates or perceived disruption risk is de-escalated, shifting futures toward a mixed/range regime. 48 mixed accelerating 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-natural_gas-20260324T220500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T22:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Geopolitical escalation and LNG supply-security headlines are adding near-term risk premium to gas/LNG, biasing natural gas futures upward.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "lng_export_flows",
 "pipeline_infrastructure",
 "production_outages"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Middle East LNG supply-disruption narratives (Qatar/Ras Laffan focus) are sustaining bullish skew for natural gas futures over the next 24 hours, primarily via perceived supply-chain fragility rather than demand expansion.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "lng_export_flows",
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "pipeline_infrastructure"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "The bullish risk-premium thesis is fragile and could fade quickly if headline intensity decelerates or perceived disruption risk is de-escalated, shifting natural gas futures back toward a mixed/range regime.",
 "probability_pct": 48,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002",
 "B-NG-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 19,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 25,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h": 5,
 "stale_24_72h": 2,
 "stale_gt_72h": 7
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_headline_sensitivity",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Direction is dominated by geopolitics/LNG supply-security headlines; risk-premium can compress rapidly on de-escalation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several supporting narratives originate >72h ago; older items were down-weighted (stale suppression applied)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "echo_risk_vip_single_source",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; treated as weak confirmers/weak contradictors."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Temporal profiles include spike-and-fade / late-surge patterns; momentum can flip with small new information."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source disruption/escalation items continue to cluster, and contradiction remains low."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline intensity remains elevated or accelerates (geopolitical/LNG logistics focus), expect larger swings."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing signals (<=2h) appear from 2+ independent sources indicating de-escalation or restored operations, reassess direction quickly."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional score moves inside [-20,+20] with rising contradiction ratio and thinning fresh evidence."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -22,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 }
}