Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_sensitivity
- generated_at: 2026-03-24T22:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Geopolitical escalation and LNG supply-security headlines are adding near-term risk premium to gas/LNG, biasing natural gas futures upward. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Middle East LNG supply-disruption narratives (Qatar/Ras Laffan focus) are sustaining bullish skew for natural gas futures over the next 24 hours via perceived supply-chain fragility. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-003 | The bullish risk-premium thesis is fragile and could fade quickly if headline intensity decelerates or perceived disruption risk is de-escalated, shifting futures toward a mixed/range regime. | 48 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-natural_gas-20260324T220500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T22:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation and LNG supply-security headlines are adding near-term risk premium to gas/LNG, biasing natural gas futures upward.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"production_outages"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Middle East LNG supply-disruption narratives (Qatar/Ras Laffan focus) are sustaining bullish skew for natural gas futures over the next 24 hours, primarily via perceived supply-chain fragility rather than demand expansion.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"lng_export_flows",
"energy_geopolitics",
"pipeline_infrastructure"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "The bullish risk-premium thesis is fragile and could fade quickly if headline intensity decelerates or perceived disruption risk is de-escalated, shifting natural gas futures back toward a mixed/range regime.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 19,
"B": 2,
"C": 0,
"D": 25,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 3,
"fresh_6_24h": 5,
"stale_24_72h": 2,
"stale_gt_72h": 7
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "geopolitical_headline_sensitivity",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Direction is dominated by geopolitics/LNG supply-security headlines; risk-premium can compress rapidly on de-escalation."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several supporting narratives originate >72h ago; older items were down-weighted (stale suppression applied)."
},
{
"flag": "echo_risk_vip_single_source",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; treated as weak confirmers/weak contradictors."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Temporal profiles include spike-and-fade / late-surge patterns; momentum can flip with small new information."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source disruption/escalation items continue to cluster, and contradiction remains low."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If headline intensity remains elevated or accelerates (geopolitical/LNG logistics focus), expect larger swings."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing signals (<=2h) appear from 2+ independent sources indicating de-escalation or restored operations, reassess direction quickly."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score moves inside [-20,+20] with rising contradiction ratio and thinning fresh evidence."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 28,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
}
}